Location: Linköping, Sweden
Willing to relocate: Yes
Doesn't the leverage go both directions? Donating causes earlier people to pay more, but also adds leverage for later people? Such that you don't know if later people would've donated unless you also did.
Though maybe that depends on some factors of the system, whether the leverage grows or shrinks with more donations. I think this might hit your worry that it incentivizes donating later cause that makes you pay less, but if actors are proper EV-maximizers won't they scale up their donation such that the expected payment/leverage is the same?
Seems like there's lots of strategies at play here, including donating several times. Making it work both for real-life humans with real-life problems and TAI seems ambitious though, they require very different incentives to work and I imagine the design ends up significantly different.
If the lateral-flow test can be cheaply produced, distributed and stored at smaller clinics - then you might be able to then quickly drive patients to larger clinics once positively diagnosed and might not then have to worry as much about the larger costs of the anti-venom. Will depend a lot on the time/distance to nearest larger clinics though.