katriel

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of GiveWell's cost-effectiveness analyses

Fabulous! This is extremely good to know and it's also quite a relief!

Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of GiveWell's cost-effectiveness analyses

Do the expected values of the output probability distributions equal the point estimates that GiveWell gets from their non-probabilistic estimates? If not, how different are they?

More generally, are there any good write-ups about when and how the expected value of a model with multiple random variables differs from the same model filled out with the expected value of each of its random variables?

(I didn't find the answer skimming through, but it might be there already--sorry!)

I didn't see any molluscs here. Would you consider adding a mollusc?