Will any of the lectures/talks not be recorded? It would be nice if Swapcard could indicate this.
I think that complex cluelessness implies we should be very skeptical of interventions whose claim to cost-effectiveness is through their direct, proximate effects. As has been well argued elsewhere, the long-term effects of these actions probably dominate.
In my reading, the 80,000 Hours article in the link does not fully support this claim. In the section "Can we actually influence the future," it identifies four ways actions today can influence the long-term future. But it doesn't provide a solid case about why most interventions would influence the long-term future, rather than having their effects dissipate over time.
I didn't see any molluscs here. Would you consider adding a mollusc?
Fabulous! This is extremely good to know and it's also quite a relief!
Do the expected values of the output probability distributions equal the point estimates that GiveWell gets from their non-probabilistic estimates? If not, how different are they?
More generally, are there any good write-ups about when and how the expected value of a model with multiple random variables differs from the same model filled out with the expected value of each of its random variables?
(I didn't find the answer skimming through, but it might be there already--sorry!)