All of kierangreig🔸's Comments + Replies

Agree that it’s really great to see the fund grow so much!

That said, I don’t think it’s right to say it’s almost as large as Coefficient Giving. At least not yet... :) 

The 2025 total appears to exclude a number of grants (including one to Rethink Priorities) and only runs through August of that year. By comparison, Coefficient Giving’s farmed animal welfare funding in 2024 was around $70M, based on the figures published on their website.

Rethink Priorities is hiring an AI Strategy Team Lead. The full job description and application form are available on our careers page.

If you know anyone who may be a strong fit for applied strategy, research, or programmatic work focused on reducing AI-related existential risks and securing positive outcomes, we’d appreciate you sharing this opportunity.

We warmly encourage anyone who thinks they might be a good fit to apply.

Huge congratulations to Samantha on her new role as CEO. 

Also, shout out to Joey Savoie for the many years of work leading up to this transition.

Excited to see the continued focus on scale and impact under Samantha's leadership!

Good question. I think this recent comment addresses it. 

Rethink Priorities has opened expressions of interest for roles on our new AI Strategy Team. We are currently seeking interest for Analyst and Senior Analyst positions. The job description and expression of interest form are available on our careers page.

If you know people who might be a strong fit for applied strategy, research and other programmatic work aimed at reducing AI-related existential risks, and securing the upsides please do feel free to share. 

We strongly encourage anyone who thinks they may be a good fit to submit! :)

5
NunoSempere
How should one think about this in the constext of like, IAPS existing?

Hey! Yes, on subcauses, that sounds right to me. WAW as well, though that’s somewhat outside the scope of this discussion.

On profiles/job types, I’d highlight government policy and lobbying, management, fundraising, and local experts in specific but neglected populous countries.

I’m not sure that I disagree overall, but I think variance really matters here: both within subcauses/areas and between individuals. Some areas and profiles within farmed animal advocacy still seem much more talent-constrained than others, and those differences can be quite stark. Likewise, individuals often have a much greater comparative advantage for certain types of direct work depending on their skills, experience, and networks.

Because of this, while the nonprofit sector may indeed be approaching saturation in some areas, there are still pockets where... (read more)

1
Ben Stevenson
Hey Kieran! I guess you're thinking about fish and invertebrate welfare as the more talent-constrained subcauses (correct me if I'm wrong?) but I'm curious which kinds of profiles or job types you think are more talent-constrained than others? Also interested in your take, @lauren_mee 🔸 !
2
lauren_mee 🔸

This section from a previous research piece provides additional context on the scale of frog farming.

Sometimes, just when it seems like conditions for so many farmed animals basically couldn’t get any worse, one comes across yet another widespread industry practice that’s deeply disturbing.

A friend showed this to me. Unfortunately, this seems like a massive under-estimate as the vast majority of commercially traded frog legs still come from wild-caught frogs rather than farms. 

Thanks, Caleb, glad to hear that!

Contractor rates will depend on experience, project scope, and the nature of the work. As a rough guide: for experienced independent contributors, we typically expect rates in the range of $50–$150 USD per hour. For more junior contributors, the range is likely closer to $20–$50.

That said, we’re open to a range of expectations, especially where there’s a strong fit.

Like Toby, this is my initial vote, but I may revise it as more information becomes available over time.

Thanks for engaging Michael!  

Would you be open to taking funding earmarked for one of your specific proposed projects? And generally for a specific department? 

Yes, donors can restrict their contributions to Rethink Priorities or specific projects. When making a donation, donors should specify their desired restrictions, and we will ensure the funds are allocated accordingly in our accounting. However, for relatively small donations, restricting funds to a specific project may be less practical if the project requires significantly more funding ... (read more)

Congratulations, Sjir, on your new role! Best of luck—I’m excited to see all that you’ll accomplish!

Thanks James! Someone from our team will DM you shortly. 

1
JoseRamonMallen
Hi @Kieran Greig and thank you for the excellent write-up! I would like to join James' request, would that be possible? If not, no problem. Thank you!

A few months ago, Good Ventures, the primary funder behind Open Philanthropy, decided to exit grantmaking in the areas of farmed invertebrates and wild animals, which had supported much of Rethink Priorities' work over the last 18 months, including recent publications on shrimp welfare and farmed insect welfare. While The Navigation Fund has committed to sustaining our insect welfare portfolio through 2026, other invertebrate and wild animal projects lack secure funding, making additional support crucial for their continuation. The switch in funding approa... (read more)

Sure. Before doing that a couple of quick notes. First, I think it takes a while for grants to mature and impact to play out, so that makes it difficult to judge at this point which were the biggest hits from the past year. Second, there are some grants that I have a COI with, but think may have been hits from 2022, but nonetheless won’t list them here. Third, as some further background context, the general categories of grants that I am most excited by are early-stage support to aligned groups, working on neglected animals, or in neglected places. 

Th... (read more)

4
Ben_West🔸
This is very cool, thanks Kieran!

Hi David, thanks for engaging! Responding to your questions below. 

  1. Yes, sometimes we do this if we think that some opportunity is a particularly good fit for a different funder. Yeah, I would say applicants usually remain active long enough to reapply again in the future. It seems rare to me that our funding is the deciding factor for their continued existence. 
  2. I can’t easily pull that information, and I think it depends on the year, but my very rough guess is between 3-30% of funds raised in any given year of the fund’s existence so far were cry
... (read more)
3
David van Beveren
Perfect, this was all very insightful— thanks Kieran.

In terms of the present funding allocation, it is much more focused on farmed than wild animals. An important factor contributing to that is there are very few opportunities that we can support on the wild animal side at this point. The promising opportunities for wild animals that exist now receive funding from us and are some of our bigger grantees. But there’s only so far we can go with research there, and we haven’t yet identified some promising wild animal welfare intervention that groups could implement. That contributes to there being significantly ... (read more)

Thanks for the question, Vasco :) 

It is possible to donate specifically to a single area of RP?

Yes. Donors can restrict their donations to RP. When making the donation, the donor should just mention what restriction is on the donation, and then we will restrict those funds for only that use in our accounting.

If yes, to which extend would the donation be fungible with donations to other areas?

The only way this would be fungible is if it changes how we allocate unrestricted money. Based on our current plans, this would not happen for donations to our an... (read more)

2
Vasco Grilo🔸
Thanks for clarifying!

Is AWF considering hiring a fundraiser to help fill this funding gap?


No, not considering hiring for strictly a fundraiser at this point. However, we are interested in adding other positions that could contribute to fundraising (as well importantly contribute in other ways). 

Specifically as mentioned in the post:

We also have some plans for significant growth next year through some internal expansion plans in the works (e.g., possibly adding further fund managers, hopefully at least one who is full-time, and doing more active grantmaking). 

To that ... (read more)

Sadly, I don't think that approach is correct. The 5th percentile of a product of random variables is not the product of the 5th percentiles---in fact, in general, it's going to be a product of much higher percentiles (20+).

As something of an aside, I think this general point was demonstrated and visualised well here

Disclaimer: I work RP so may be biased.  

This is already here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KhptcGeYBuhFRoBjA/lying-is-cowardice-not-strategy-1

2
Greg_Colbourn ⏸️
Ok, will delete (it wasn't up when I first posted and wasn't sure whether the authors were going to post here). EDIT: tried to delete but hasn't done anything. Mods can delete.

It still depends somewhat on how fundraising goes, but it's pretty likely in 2024 Rethink Priorities budget (excluding a number of groups that we fiscally sponsor) will be around $11M. 

I think that the specific extrapolation of our budget completed here was importantly off because we did a number of hires over the course of 2022, so the reported spend for that year didn't fully capture total recurring costs of the new headcount (as those new hires started at various points throughout that year). 

1
Miri
Thank you so much for sharing this! I updated the post.

Thanks for your engagement! 

Yes, for instance, as mentioned in the appendix, some non-fictitious examples for Global Health and Development are: 

We produced numerous research reports for Open Phil assessing the potential of global health and development interventions, looking for interventions that could be as or more cost-effective as the ones currently ranked top by GiveWell. This included full reports on the following:

... (read more)
8
Vasco Grilo🔸
Thanks, and sorry for not having checked the appendix!  It looks like it would be quite valuable to publish that research, even if just as posts which would contain the summary and link to the relevant report, to save time. This would not be possible for the ones containing information hazards, but I hope there will not be many under such conditions.
2
EdoArad
(also the inner-doc links inside footnote 46 point to the doc)

Interesting point and thanks for raising, Saulius. :)

That specific grant actually hasn’t been made yet. Though we approved of it, I believe it’s waiting on the university to finalize something before the funds are allocated. So, I am going to strike it from the list of grants at the top of the report (I was meant to do this before but forgot to do this even though I removed it from the paragraphs of the payout report, my apologies).

To further address your point though, I think the counterfactuals here are tricky to think about and I wouldn’t confidently cl... (read more)

4
saulius
I totally agree, this is all very speculative. This makes sense and substantially increases my probability that the grant is net-positive. One thing to think about here is whether to make the research public. If it’s public, I’d still worry about it causing more suffering than it prevents because we don’t know how it might impact the supply and what will be the future of carmine. But if it’s not public, then I’m not sure how the research would make an impact. I imagine that it would be public because it’s by a university. I would consider first commissioning an economic analysis of how synthetic carmine would alter farmed and wild-caught quantities.

Good flag! :)

Fwiw, looks like rerunning the analysis with the relative bounds on chicken moral worth being a ten-billionth to a thousandth of a human,  rather than a twenty thousandth to  10 humans, still outputs a mean cost-effectiveness ratio of CCCW to MIF of ~1.3. 

So though it is a pretty significant factor, choosing different values there seems unlikely by themselves to directionally change the output.  

I also don't think that the expected moral weight of more than twice that of a human is that intrinsic to Muehlhauser numbers. See... (read more)

3
Vasco Grilo🔸
Note I used a loguniform distribution, not a lognormal (which would result in a mean of 1.50 k). In addition, normal, uniform, and logistic distributions would lead to 4.00. Assuming total hedonic utilitarianism (classical utilitarisnism) carries most of the weight amongst various possible moral theories, I would say one can compare the experiences of humans with those of non-human animals.  I discussed concerns about calculating expected moral weights at length here. Here, the moral weight is: I think the ability to give credences to different views implies that they are somehow comparable with respect to an idealised truth, since the credence is sort of the probability of a view being true. I think about the moral weight as representing the knowledge about both "near-term human-centric" and "near term animal-centric" views. I think one cannot reasonably be confident that the latter has a very low credence, and therefore the 90th percentile of the moral weight distribution will tend to be close to 1, which implies a mean moral weight close to 1.
3
Guy Raveh
Yeah, I agree, dividing it by e.g. 1000 would only make a 10,000 ratio into 10. The particular value is a result of the log-uniform distribution, but any distribution conforming to Muelhauser's confidence interval will give a mean in this neighborhood (i.e. at most ~3 times smaller).

My understanding is that there is still more money within farmed animal welfare and global poverty than opportunities for funding.

For farmed animal welfare, as per the title: ”We need more nuance regarding funding gaps”, I think it is indeed more nuanced than “there is more money than opps for funding in farmed animal welfare.” 

Quickly consider the likes of:

  • Some of the more outstanding bigger orgs can absorb much more funding, pretty productively (think e.g. THL, GFI, CIWF, MFA, etc.) Across those outstanding big groups alone, quite likely we could ea
... (read more)

Hey! Good q :) Apologies for the slower reply- I was OOO for a few weeks. 

So in addition to all those grants being for EA Superstars... I think we may have just made an error in the copy and pasting process between Google Docs and posting here and on the ea funds site. :) 

Specifically the "*" elsewhere (e.g., on Contentful) indicates bolding or italics and we had all these heading parts bolded or italicized (for other grants too) previously. 

I have removed all the * now.

Thanks for asking about it!   

3
Peter Wildeford
Thanks!

First, I think this is a  really good flag on an important issue and a great first post :)   

As others mentioned CIWF have a good Octopus farming report highlighting the terrible consequences for animal welfare (underrated but I believe that Octopus could live 2-3 years in these conditions). I believe CIWF also presented the report to the Animal Welfare Intergroup of the European Parliament! They have also written to various places (governments, governors etc.) trying to have the practice outlawed or shut down. 

Specifically within ... (read more)

3
Miguel Lima Medín 🔸
The company Nueva Pescanova receives funds from the EU for the development of the industrial process to grow octopus. Details on their site: https://www.nuevapescanova.com/compromiso/responsabilidad-social-corporativa/innovacion/sea2table-4-0/
3
Jamie_Harris
Some of your thinking and estimates here seem reasonable and useful! I just want to pick up on one small subsection that surprised me: "As in, say a country like Spain outlaws the practice of farming octopus (which in itself may be pretty unlikely), then I think a big multinational company like Nueva Pescanova (the company claiming to start the first commercial octopus farm) perhaps just goes to some other country they work in (and they are present in 20ish). " Why did this surprise me / why are our intuitions different? I think there might be some difference in optimism about the value of legislation. I expect that preventative action is much more tractable than retrospective action to abolish an industry that has already been developed. E.g. see "It is probably easier to abolish a practice through legislation if that practice is not in regular use" here: https://www.sentienceinstitute.org/death-penalty#the-causes-of-legislative-change . So challenging the first example of an unusually negative (and/or unusually unpopular) practice seems especially important. If fighting this specific company encourages a battle that spirals across several countries and results in legislation in several places but fails to stop this specific company farming octopus somewhere then I imagine I would consider that to be a major victory. Relatedly, I have in my head a model where anti octopus farming legislation in one country makes anti octopus farming legislation in another. E.g. see "Once influential international bodies adopt a value, they may exert pressure on institutions in other parts of the world to adopt the same value" at the same link as above. Alternatively, maybe it's because you're focusing on helping the octopuses in question in this specific farm. Whereas my concern is not: "(how) can we prevent Nueva Pescanova farming and selling 3,000 tons of farmed octopus per year," but "(how) can we prevent (octopus) farming?"
8
Lizka
I really appreciate this comment-- thank you for taking the time to write it out.

> Also, how do you judge their expected marginal cost-effectiveness? Do you do back-of-the-envelope calculations? Compare to previous projects with estimates? Check the project team's own estimates (and make adjustments as necessary)? All of the above? Any others?

It varies by project and depends on who the grant investigator is. 

If a) the project is relatively well-suited to a back of the envelope and b) a back of the envelope seems decision-relevant, then we will engage in one. Right now, a) and b) seem true in a minority of cases, maybe ~10%-25% ... (read more)

Hi Michael, 

Good questions, and appreciate you raising them. I am going to split the responses because they’re somewhat long. 

>How do you think the expected marginal cost-effectiveness of the grantees compares to the large effective animal advocacy charities like The Humane League?

Tl;dr: Main things I think about are i) the generally lacking evidence base leaves it unresolved, ii) risk and variance across the respective portfolios, iii) "big-picture" takes about the different portfolios, and iv) dynamics at the community level, as well as, wha... (read more)

This was really cool! Thanks a bunch for writing it up :) 

For those interested, it somewhat reminded me of Some Case Studies in Early Field Growth and Establishing a research field in the natural sciences.

One quick observation that is probably a small thing or not right: 

For the 8 fields that reached establishment, the median time between a field’s origin year and establishment year[3] was 18 years, with the quickest field (Genetic Circuits) becoming established after 5 years, and the slowest (Clean Meat) becoming established after 63 years (the

... (read more)
3
Ben Snodin
Nice, thanks for those links, great to have those linked here since we didn't point to them in the report. I've seen the Open Phil one but I don't think I'd seen the Animal Ethics study, it looks very interesting. Thanks for raising the point about speed of establishment for Clean Meat and Genetic Circuits! Our definition for the "origin year" (from here) is "The year that the technology or area is purposefully explored for the first time." So it's supposed to be when someone starts working on it, not when someone first has the idea. We think that Willem van Eelen started working on developing clean meat in the 1950's, so we set the origin year to be around then. Whereas as far as we're aware no-one was working on genetic circuits until much later.  At the moment I'm not sure whether the supplementary notes say anywhere that we think van Eelen was working on developing clean meat in the 50's, I think Megan is going to update the notes to make this clearer.

This round, we report five anonymous grants after receiving advice from internal and external advisors, and further weighing the pros and cons of public reporting. We consider these grants to have a high expected impact, and report that there were no conflicts of interest in evaluating them. 

2
BrianTan
Got it, thanks!

Thanks for this post! I believe this is the first time that the Animal Welfare Fund is giving anonymous grants, but someone can correct me if I'm wrong. I was aware that the EAIF and LTFF are now able to do this, but I wasn't aware that the AWF is now able to do this too.

Thanks! Yeah, that is right, this is the first time. 

Anyway, maybe EA Funds should indicate in their Apply for Funding page and the application form that the AWF will consider funding applications from grantseekers who wish to remain anonymous in public reporting? It currently says th

... (read more)
2
BrianTan
No problem!

Somewhat building on one that is currently mentioned on the page. Advocates have secured thousands of corporate pledges for cage-free eggs globally since 2015. That’s built global pressure for legislation, e.g. the European Commission, UK governments, and various US states have cited corporate progress as a major motivator for them to act. (I think as of latest figures about ~100M (?) US hens were cage-free vs. about 20M in 2015, when the campaigns started ramping up.) In the US, the cage-free flock size has dramatically increased in size these past few years. See, e.g., p.4. 

Right. So I still might not be fully understanding. 

I guess it seems hard for me to understand thinking both: 

A) Diet change has more negative effects on wild animals than positive effects on farmed animals. 

And B) Diet changes’ negative effects on wild animals are in expectation greater than the positive effects from further work on wild animal welfare (e.g., of the sort WAI completes). 

But maybe I am misunderstanding. Do you think both of those? 

Separately, and another quick thought, it could be helpful to more formally model it,... (read more)

2
Michael St Jules 🔸
  In short, I think  1. A is reasonably likely to be true. 2. If A is true, then B is very likely to be true, too (I'm less sure about the reverse implication). 3. A's probability itself seems really uncertain to me, and I'm not comfortable picking one number before seeing models.  Picking 50% seems wrong, since I don't have evidential symmetry as in simple cluelessness; this is a case of complex cluelessness. On 1, the main reasons diet change would be bad for wild animals would be through wild fishes and wild invertebrates (and Brian Tomasik's writing is where I'd start). Because of the number of animals involved (far more fishes and invertebrates than chickens, and there may be generational population effects since you prevent descendants, too, but maybe what matters most is carrying capacity), it seems pretty plausible these negative effects could heavily outweigh the positives for farmed animals. I think one thing Brian might not have been aware of at the time is that many wild fishes are caught to feed farmed fishes, so fish farming might be good for reducing wild fish populations. There's also all the plastic pollution from fishing that plausibly reduces populations, and not just fish populations. On the other hand, maybe the wild fishes get replaced with more populous r-selected species, and that's bad. I think 2 is true, because  * I already think the number of wild animals affected will be larger from diet change, since this is a major ecosystem change whereas wild animal welfare interventions will be more targeted. * A implies the negative effects of diet change are quite large (enough to make up for the benefits to farmed chickens and farmed aquatic animals), and the worlds in which A is true but B is not are the (in my view) unlikely ones in which we're radically interfering in nature to help wild animals through population control or genetic interventions, because I'd guess that's what it takes to have a similarly large effect. So for the -1

Sure. 

Very quickly, here are a few ideas/interventions that seem interesting to me:

  • Helping scope whether large and respected enviro groups may lobby on this if funding was available  
  • Helping establish additional university-affiliated research centers that focus on research into pb alts 
  • Helping establish trade associations in important places that don’t really have them right now

Honestly, I think there’s just a lot of underexplored territory in the area. To some extent it is now about us diversifying somewhat, trying a number of differen... (read more)

Yeah, I think I would be interested in a variety of scoping projects. 

Briefly, some ideas that seem top of mind for me now are:

  • Someone thinking more about some very preliminary things that could be done in the policy space 
  • Or more about an organization that might focus on wild animal welfare within cities 
  • Or even more about a generalist group that may be to wild animals what GFI is to alt-proteins (some variety of programs and decent emphasis on movement-building) 

However, I think the bottleneck here may be more about finding talented p... (read more)

Fairly sure it was the ACE Research Fund. :)  

Yeah, I think your impression of the ratio is correct.

Briefly, as Michael St Jules notes, AWF interfaces with a much bigger community/movement than the LTFF currently does. I think that goes some of the way to explaining the difference in the ratio. Within the respective remits of each fund, it seems the AWF just generally has a more developed movement that it can grant to. The total FAW movement is  > $100M per year. My guess is the total EA-aligned LTF movement is now just a pretty small fraction compared to that total.    &nb... (read more)

Thanks for all your questions! :)

>What processes do you have for monitoring the outcome/impact of grants? 

We have a ~10 question questionnaire that we send grantees. We send these out 6 months after the grant's starting date - which coincides with the payment date usually. We then send them out every six months and then a final report at the grant’s end date. E.g., if the grant was for an 18-month project, we would send the progress report to that grantee at the 6-month mark, 12 months, and then 18 months. 

I feel like I am also just fairly reg... (read more)

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