Research Fellow @ Open Phil. Mostly on Twitter.
Oh, hi, stranger. ;)
Yes, we've been thinking about this a bit. In this version of the model, I assumed recovery to trend within 10 years, but honestly, that's incredibly unrealistic. We're likely to revise our model to use a substantially longer time scale for recovery.
On a related note, if people reading this are interested in political economy & GHW, feel free to email me to chat about the advantages/disadvantages of being in a political science department instead of an econ department.
Policing reform is a topic near and dear to my heart, so I am happy to talk about this ad nauseam. One of the papers in my now-on-pause dissertation was on policing, and I also RAed on a study on community policing in the Global South. (It didn't work.)
I agree that better policing is desperately needed in the developing world; functionally, there really aren't police in much of the world. But I don't know that the literature is yet mature enough for this kind of overview; policing in the developing world has really only taken off as a research area in the last few years. My wild speculation would be that police reform is really hard - changing incentives for police can be very difficult in under-resourced environments.
The field is really growing, though, so I'm excited to see what comes out of that field in the future. Travis Curtice and Rob Blair are two of my favorite scholars of policing.
Oh, that's a valid point about scaling; noted.
Re. job training: I was referring to Blattman and Annan 2016, where the intervention contained both counseling and job training.
Very excited to see the ten year results when they're out!
I wish there was more data on this! There is very little systematic data collection on refugees and IDPs in the Global South. I had trouble finding data on physical health - e.g. life expectancy for those displaced by civil war - and well-being data was even thinner on the ground. I even tweeted about how much I wanted this data to exist. ;)
I certainly expect that experiencing or being displaced by civil war has substantially negative effects on well-being - this paper shows the effects persist for at least three decades - but I didn't feel I had enough data in order to really include it in my BOTEC.