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No, the EMH does not imply that markets have long AGI timelines

However, if they believe in near-term TAI, savvy investors won't value future profits (since they'll be dead or super rich anyways)

My future profits aren't very relevant if I'm dead, but I might still care about it even if I'm super rich. Sure, my marginal utility will be very low, but on the other hand the profit from my investments will be very large. Even if everyone is stupendously rich by today's terms, there might be a tangible difference between having a trillion dollars in your bank account and having a quadrillion dollars in your bank account. May... (read more)

Harrison Durland

Are you assuming this holds true even in some scenario where a single company or government has total, decisive control over the future of civilization? Will the entity in power really still prioritize such exchanges if they could plausibly just take it directly from you (since they are not accountable to a higher power)? Or are you assuming that such a Singleton is unlikely to exist? (Or, is the focus on the possibility that such a Singleton does not exist)

Jakob

I agree that the marginal value of money won't be literally zero after TAI (in the growth scenario; if we're all dead, then it is exactly equal to zero). But (if we still assume those two TAI scenarios are the only possible ones), on a per-dollar basis it will be much lower than today, which will massively skew the incentives for traders - in the face of uncertainty, they would need overwhelming evidence before making trades that pay off only after TAI. And importantly, if you disagree with this and believe the marginal utility of money won't change radically, then that further undermines the point made in the original post, since their entire argument relies on the change in marginal utility - you can't have it both ways! (why would you posit that consumers change their savings rate when there is still benefits from being richer?) Still, I see your point that even in such a world, there's a difference between being a trillionaire, or a quadrillionaire. If there are quadrillion-dollar profits to be made, then yes, you will get those chains of backwards induction up and working again. But I find that scenario very implausible, so in reality I don't think this is an important consideration.

Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down

Caleb_Maresca1y5

I am not aware of any international treaties which sanction the use of force against a non-signatory nation except for those circumstances under which one of the signatory nations is first attacked by a non-signatory nation (e.g. collective defense agreements such as NATO). Your counterexample of the Israeli airstrike on the Osirak reactor is not a precedent as it was not a lawful use of force according to international law and was not sanctioned by any treaty. I agree that the Israeli government made the right decision in orchestrating the attack, but it ... (read more)

More like 88,000 hours? In defence of “career longtermism” – a personal perspective

Caleb_Maresca1y3

My argument doesn't hang on whether an X-risk occurs during my PhD. If AGI is 10 years away, it's questionable whether investing half of that remaining time into completing a PhD is optimal.

More like 88,000 hours? In defence of “career longtermism” – a personal perspective

Caleb_Maresca1y9

I think that when discussing career longtermism we should keep the possibility of short AGI timelines in consideration (or the possibility of some non-AI related existential catastrophe occuring in the short-term). By the time we transition from learning and building career capital to trying to impact the world, it might be too late to make a difference. Maybe an existential catastrophe has already occurred or AGI was successful and so outclasses us that all of that time building career capital was wasted.

For example, I am in my first year of an economics ... (read more)

Tilly P

Thanks for your comment, and that's a fair point/critique - I agree about impact through academia being slow. However, at this stage it's pretty difficult to plan for what jobs you should be training for if AI replaces your current role, so it still makes sense to do something that broadly expands your career capital as you state, whether this is a PhD or something else. I would have thought the likelihood of an X-risk happening within the time you do your PhD is probably quite small, but I'll leave the quantification to the experts! AI is probably least likely to impact some more practical and non-academic roles so this could be an argument for gaining career capital outside of the knowledge sector (e.g. see this Times article: bit.ly/3M8Utpr). I didn't know the Bing AI had been rolled out yet - I'll have to give that a try and I'm curious how it will develop over time, and how quickly - and whether it will make my new job quicker and/or ultimately replace me or some of the workforce.

Which countries are most receptive to more immigration?

Caleb_Maresca4y8

I don't have an answer to which countries would be more receptive to the idea, definitely don't try here in Israel!

I am however interested in the claimed effectiveness of open borders. Do these estimates take into account potential backlash or political instability that a large number of immigrants could cause? I understand that theoretically, closed borders are economically inefficient and solidify inequality, but I fear that open borders could cause significant political problems and backlash. Even if we were to consider this backlash to be unj... (read more)

BrownHairedEevee

I think these concerns are valid. The website Open Borders: The Case addresses many of the main arguments against open borders, including the possibility of nativist backlash to increased immigration. "Nativist backlash" refers to the hypothesis that a country opening its borders to all immigration would cause a significant portion of current residents to subsequently turn against immigration. The problem with this claim is that the probability of backlash depends on how a country adopts open borders in the first place. Nathan Smith writes:

EA considerations regarding increasing political polarization

Caleb_Maresca4y4

I agree that the urban/rural divide as opposed to clear cut boundaries is not a significant reason to discredit the possibility of civil war, however, there are other reasons to think that civil war is unlikely.

This highly cited article provides evidence that the main causal factors of civil wars are what the authors call conditions that favor insurgency, rather than ethnic factors, discrimination, and grievances (such as economic inequality). The argument is that even in the face of grievances that cause people to start a civil war if the right condition... (read more)

Option Value, an Introductory Guide

Caleb_Maresca4y1

Thanks for your input. Option value struck me as a subject that is not only relevant to EA, but also has not disseminated effectively from the academic literature to a larger audience. It’s very hard to find concrete information on option value outside of the literature. For example, the Wikipedia article on the subject is a garbled mess.

A collection of researchy projects for Aspiring EAs

Caleb_Maresca4y3

Hi Viadehi, I'm part of the new research group at EA Israel. For me personal fit and building career capital are the main reasons why I want to take part. I don't think that research I do now will save the world, but hopefully it will help me build relevant skills and knowledge and develop a passion for research.

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