sent, thank you
I'd be interested in joining the Slack group
I'd like to take Buck's side of the bet as well if you're willing to bet more
What was her rationale for prioritizing hand soap over food?
It's probably the lizardman constant showing up again -- if ~5% of people answer randomly and <5% of the population are actually veg*ns, then many of the self-reported veg*ns will have been people who answered randomly.
I think it's misleading to call that evidence that marriage causes shorter lifespans (not sure if that's your intention)
Do you have a link and/or a brief explanation of how they convincingly established causality for the "married women have shorter lives" claim?
The next logical step is to evaluate the novel ideas, though, where a "cadre of uber-rational people" would be quite useful IMHO. In particular, a small group of very good evaluators seems much better than a large group of less epistemically rational evaluators who could be collectively swayed by bad reasoning.
I think the argument is that we don't know how much expected value is left, but our decisions will have a much higher expected impact if the future is high-EV, so we should make decisions that would be very good conditional on the future being high-EV.
Have you read this paper suggesting that there is no good evidence of a connection between climate change and the Syrian war? I found it quite persuasive.