@cole_haus I'm working on a new modeling tool - https://causal.app. If you think it's useful I could try to replicate your analysis with Causal. The advantage would be that the output is an interactive web site where users can play with the assumptions (e.g. plug in different distributions).
If there's another analysis that you think might be a better fit I could also build that. I just think that Causal could be useful for the EA community :)