MA

M_Allcock

Space weather consultant @ RHEA
219 karmaJoined Aug 2018Working (0-5 years)

Bio

Based in London, UK.

I have a PhD in applied mathematics, and worked for several years on the mitigation of low probability, high severity natural risks to nuclear power stations.

My current focus is on space weather risk mitigation in the European space sector.

I have several years experience running a local EA group, and experience as a researcher for EA orgs.

Comments
15

Hey Jordan, I work in the space sector and I'm also based in London. I am currently working on a Government project assessing the impact of space weather on UK critical national infrastructure. I've written a little on the existential risk of space weather, too, e.g. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/9gjc4ok4GfwuyRASL/cosmic-rays-could-cause-major-electronic-disruption-and-pose

I'll message you as it would be good to connect!

The explosion of a nuclear bomb is "temporary", yet carries an extinction risk. Transient events can trigger long-term changes the Earth environment, transforming it into an inhospitable place. "Temporary" events can destroy the world.

There is a rich field of research into space weather and its impacts on modern technology. The 2013 Royal Academy of Engineering report on Extreme Space Weather  is a good place to start (although it is UK-focussed). The most likely impacts are on electricity networks. Widespread blackouts lasting several months, which would have extreme impacts on critical services, are expected to occur in a 100-year geomagnetic storm. Damage to satellites, satellite services (GPS, satellite timing, etc), and disruption to mobile and radio communication is also expected during such an event.

There is much less research into space weather as an existential risk. The mechanism is through depletion of atmospheric ozone due to a large influx of extremely high-energy protons, accelerated by a solar flare.  Such superflares may have contributed to previous mass extinctions. Such an extinction-level event has been estimated to have an annual probability of 1/20 million. This estimate is based on extrapolations from radioisotope measurements in tree rings and ice-cores suggesting the existence of much larger space weather events occurring several thousands of years ago, and the observations of flares from other stars with orders of magnitude times the energy of those we observe on our Sun.

I am currently working on an updated space weather risk assessment for the UK. The focus is not on extinction-level events, but on ~100-year events. Happy to chat if anyone is interested.

Ace! this is the first time I've heard of that podcast. Thanks for sharing.

I can also vouch for the Stronglifts 5x5 programme.

Training with a team and focusing on improvement (e.g. weight lifted, running time for a given distance, rock climbing grade), where improved health and well-being is the secondary benefit, has helped with my motivation a lot.

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