https://aicountdown.com/ links to 

It seems to me like the ratio of preparedness : prevention for environmental change should be way higher

Thanks for asking! Yeah, we haven't advertised this on our website yet. I'd love to help your mission at Leaf--this is exactly the kind of projects I want to support :)

Type of donations that have a particular need for small donors: The best $5,800 I’ve ever donated (to pandemic prevention).

yeah, could be a nonprofit but probably not a charity

I just skimmed. I like the idea. That plausibly only works for sufficiently memetically fit charities (which varies based on the product/service), but that's probably still a significant number.

If this is thesis is true, then it means donors (of charity that have companies with a consumer based that is memetically fit for that charity) should buy companies and transform them into Profit for Good (at least assuming they're able to hire a good CEO, and maybe providing other incentive-based pay for the CEO if they don't have shares), because this would increa... (read more)

I sent an email with a group application on September 18th (https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ERZ7spGHZYJjixaY3ln4eVxu_GKkOWqvB9rpz3Abd6M/), but still haven't received a reply; I hadn't used the Google Form given it was a group application -- Did you receive my application? :/

Is this program family-friendly?

Increase the prize for the International Mathematics Olympiads

Rationale: It's a useful source of talent EAs have used, and the current prizes are pretty low (less than 100 USD each AFAIK).

I'd be willing to pitch in that prize. Please reach out to me if interested.

read quickly, but basically: value that is harder to capture by the market is more neglected, so actually, there's a lot of opportunities of helping more people per employee in altruistic sectors, so not doing that is an opportunity cost

MATS is extending applications until May 22nd for its SERI ML Alignment Theory Scholars Program 2022. More info: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nSyvMy3QQTyBzybNx/seri-ml-alignment-theory-scholars-program-2022

nice!

I don't have a short answer for you unfortunately.

The Quantum Physics Sequence does address this to some extent.

I'd love that, yes! https://www.facebook.com/mati.roy.09

Part-time remote assistant position

My assistant agency, Pantask, is looking to hire new remote assistants. We currently work only with effective altruist / LessWrong clients, and are looking to contract people in or adjacent to the network. If you’re interested in referring me people, I’ll give you a 100 USD finder’s fee for any assistant I contract for at least 2 weeks (I’m looking to contract a couple at the moment).

This is a part time gig / sideline. Tasks often include web searches, problem solving over the phone, and google sheet formatting. A full de... (read more)

this seems relevant: Guide to Talking About Effective Altruism (https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/get-involved/share-our-ideas/guide-to-talking-about-effective-altruism/) (i haven't read it though)

I also suggest you record all interviews

The link to the raw data at the end of the post is dead. I would like to have the raw data of EA surveys, especially recent ones -- is there a way to get them?

way to sequence sperm/​​eggs non-destructively

this would give us:

immediate large boost of ~2SD possible by selecting earlier in the process before variance has been canceled out, does not require any new technology other than the gamete sequencing part

see: https://www.gwern.net/Embryo-selection

By the way, for the future I would suggest the question format (instead of the post format), so that comments are separated as "answers to the question" and "other" :)

First human to achieve some level of intelligence (as measured by some test) (prize split between the person themselves and the parents and the genetic engineering lab if applicable) (this is more about the social incentive than economical one, as I suppose there's already an economical one)

x-post: What effectively altruistic inducement prize contest would you like to be funded?

1M USD for the first to create a gamete (sperm and/or egg) from stem cells that result in a successful birth in one of the following species: humans, mice, dogs, pigs (probably should add more options).

(this could enable iterated embryo selection)

x-post: What effectively altruistic inducement prize contest would you like to be funded?

You could do both -- that's what I'll do if that's okay :)

Also, comments can also give you points, ya know! :P

What's the price range for the bounty?

I like this! I'm curious why you opted for the submissions to be private instead of public (ie. submitting by posting a comment)?

awesome, thank you!

Hi all, Haydn and I figured this post was a good place to plug our startup, Pantask. While the services we provide are not as advanced as those listed here, Pantask can offer assistance to EA orgs that need help with day to day operations but can’t afford to hire full time employees. We provide general virtual assistance services, such as organizing chaotic troves of data, manage schedules and emails, and help with brain debugging. We also offer graphic design, copyediting, transcription, and writing services. Our assistants can also perform certain kinds ... (read more)

Good point, and GiveWell would probably have figured that one out

Mayyybe it would have bought slave's freedom one by one instead? (I don't know; just speculating)

Another angle (/ piece of the puzzle) to compare different decision-making processes

Also safer technological progress, which is where a significant chunk of the x-risks are coming from. I don't think this would influence the probability of stable dictatorships. 

those are not inducement prizes

• FYI, Hunter says you can have residency in Paraguay easily, and only need to stay 1 day per year to maintain it
• I might be interested in hanging out in Panama, but idk if i want the citizenship

If a non-profit organization is:

• not solving some public good (in the economic sense: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_good_(economics))
• not redistributing money directly
• not helping agents that can't help themselves / use money
• not helping the donor directly
• relying on donations

Then:

• it's probably mostly done for signaling purposes and/or misguided
• it's likely performing worse than the average company
  • although there could be less efficient ways of redistributing money that would arguably be better than the average company

Good thinking. Names and currency (along with status) are one of the few things you have less when others have more, and so benefit from being put on the blockchain

so am understanding you have short AI timelines, and so don't think genetic engineering would have time to pay off, but psychedelics would, and that you think it's of similar relevance as working directly on the problem

thanks for your answer!

Genetic engineering doesn't seem to have a comparable track record or a comparable evidence base.

You get humans from primates with genetic modifications, not psychedelic :)

oh, by bad. apologies. thanks for the quote!

in terms of augmenting humans, my impression is that genetic engineering is by far the most effective intervention. my understanding is that we're currently making a lot of progress in that area, yet some important research aspects seem neglected, and could have a transformative impact on the world.

I wonder if you disagree

I feel like the burden of proof is on you, no? how will psychedelics help avoid astronomical waste?

I guess I was working on the assumption that it was rare that people would want to split their donation between local and effective a priori, and my point was that GM wasn't useful to people that didn't already want to split their donations in that way before GM's existence -- but maybe this assumption is wrong actually

hummm, I guess it's fine after all. I change my mind. People can just give whatever fraction they were going to give to local charities, and then be matched. And the extra matching to effective charities is a signal from the matcher about their model of the world. I don't think someone that was going to give 100% to another charity than those 9 should use GivingMultiplier though (unless they changed their mind about effective charities). But my guess is that this project has good consequences.

I'm henceforth offering a MetaGivingMultiplier. It's the same structure than GivingMultiplier, but replace "local charities" with "GivingMultiplier" and "super-effective charities" with "a cryonics organization" (I recommend https://www.alcor.org/rapid/ or https://www.brainpreservation.org/). Anyone wants to take advantage of my donation match?

h/t: came up with this with Haydn Thomas-Rose

On handling posts that may violate Forum rules:

Thanks for the clarifications.

On private vs. public communication:

I don't want to argue for what to do in general, but here in particular my "accusation" consists of doing the math. If I got it wrong, am sure other got it wrong too and it would be useful to clarify publicly.

On that note, I've sent this post along to Lucius of the GivingMultiplier team.

Thank you.

I agree with what Kit said as well.

But that the only reason you're not removing it is because of Kit's comment makes me pretty concerned about the forum.

I also disagree that private communication is better than public communication in cases like this.

This doesn't change the "indistinguishable from if I gave X" property, but it is a thing that would have been easy to check before posting.

I did check. As you said, it doesn't change the conclusion (it actually makes it worse).

Second, point (b) matters. It seems like a bold assumption to assume that EA charities have reached "market efficiency"

I'm >50% sure that it doesn't fare better, but maybe. In any case, I specified in my OP that my main objection was (a). 

Thus, if you actually think one of the "EA" choices at GivingMultiplier is more valuable

We already have one gateway drug: poverty alleviation. We don't need more. Psychedelics won't change the civilisation's path. Next.