All of Michael_2358's Comments + Replies

Fantastic piece. A lot to think about and digest. Thank you for writing this.

How can we best follow your work? Do you have a social media handle or email list we should subscribe to?

The FTX episode reminds me of Theranos, in that if I try to take a charitable view of what the founder was doing in each case, I could postulate they believed they needed to "fake it till you make it." In fact, this is advice I have even heard successful entrepreneurs give other aspiring entrepreneurs: "fake it till you make it." 

Starting a new company is such a daunting and overwhelming task that those who attempt to do it are going to self select for certain traits. They will tend to be over confident in themselves, they will start endeavors without... (read more)

Thank you for putting this together!

I don’t even think we are disagreeing anymore.

Obviously I agree that there can be disagreement on what are the best interventions. That is not a criticism of EA. The world is messy.

But let’s take a thought experiment in which once you decide that you wanted to use your limited resources to improve the world as effectively as possible, you could know exactly how to do that. In that world, I don’t think it should be controversial to do that thing.

To me, that is what EA philosophy is: a goal of improving the world in the most effective way possible. And that ... (read more)

The whole point is that to turn it into an either/or question is ridiculous.

The drowning example you give is good because it’s a real one. Drowning is actually the leading cause of death amongst 1-4 year olds (https://www.cdc.gov/drowning/facts/index.html) in the United States. Which is why people with backyard swimming pools have to put fences around them.

But if you saw a child drowning in a swimming pool and refused to save it because you could save more lives in the long run by addressing the systemic issues that make drowning the leading cause of death amongst 1-4 year olds in the United States, well…that’s what Crary’s argument is.

The basis for a lot of utilitarian arguments is the drowning child example (https://www.thelifeyoucansave.org/child-in-the-pond/).

Alice Crary’s argument seems to suggest that if you pass a child drowning in a pond, you should let the child drown, because your resources and energy would be better directed at addressing the systemic issues that cause drowning. For example, why is there no fence around the pond? Why aren’t parents more diligent about keeping their toddlers away from ponds. It would be better to hurry past the pond and let the child drown so you can focus on these root cause issues.

I agree EAs aren’t original and weren’t the first.

I do think it makes sense to separate tactics and philosophy.

There are people who say it would be to leave money in a savings account than donate it to a de-worming charity or AMF. One of the most prominent ones is Alice Crary. Here is a recent sample of her argument: https://blog.oup.com/2022/12/the-predictably-grievous-harms-of-effective-altruism/

None of those seem like critiques of the broad idea “I will attempt to think critically about how to reduce the most suffering.” Rather, they take issue with tactics.

So, they aren’t criticisms of EA as a philosophy, they are criticisms of EA tactics.

Also, as Peter Singer recently pointed out, no one ever said EA work was “either / or.” If someone has a systemic solution to global poverty, by all means, pursue it. In the meantime, EAs will donate to AMF and Helen Keller, etc.

So, the question then is whether we should sit on our hands and leave our money in savings accounts while we wait for a solution to systemic poverty, or should we use that money to de-worm a child while we are waiting.

Why would it be harmful to work for Wall Street earning to give? Sincere question.

Finance is like anything else. You can have an ethically upstanding career, or you can have an ethically dubious career. Seems crazy to generalize.

The bear market in stocks will continue, and the S&P 500 will decline an additional 30-45%. VC-backed and unprofitable early stage companies will continue to remain at the center of the storm as access to capital further deteriorates. The crypto bear market also accelerates. Open Philanthropy has to cut its spending target again and GiveWell again falls short of its goals. The EA community realizes how linked it was to frothy financial asset valuations.

EAs appeal to Warren Buffett and Mark Zuckerberg to consider filling some of the gaps, and one or both of them commits to doing so.

The period from which your data comes is anomalous. 2014-2021 was a massive financial asset bubble and VC backed startups were at the center of it. It will go down as one of the craziest periods of speculative mania and loose financial conditions in history.

Entrepreneurship is about to revert to its norm of being A LOT more challenging than people today currently appreciate. Do not make a career decision to become an entrepreneur based on an overly rosy view of your probability of success that is informed by recent times. Financial conditions are cyclical.

I agree that is the central point. I also agree going vegan is the morally correct thing to do even if it comes at a cost to health.

My point is that if animal advocates have a strategic goal of reducing consumption of animal products, I think they would be better served by being intellectually honest and sober rather than untrustworthy.

Thank you! This exactly what I was looking for.

Does anyone know if pandemic prevention PAC that SBF had been funding (Protecting our Future?) is going to live on? Seems like it should.

This is terrifying.

Have you seen the 2020 documentary The Phenomenon? Compelling film on this topic. Clearly there are a lot of sightings concentrated around nuclear facilities and bodies of water, which is disturbing under any number of explanations.

About a year ago there was discussion on Twitter about how EA was highly concentrated in crypto and tech stocks. Someone asked if it could/should be hedged. The reply was that there was not appetite for hedging. I remember thinking to myself that I’m sure the ultimate beneficiaries of the EA causes would have appetite, but clearly it was not their decision, it was SBFs. I guess someone could ask if, from a moral perspective, he should have looked at the decision about whether or not to hedge from the perspective of the ultimate beneficiaries.

Both low interest rates and high valuations for more speculative financial assets are a reflection of more demand for financial assets than supply. They are both functions of the overall level of savings in the economy, which is the source of demand for financial assets. Demographics, globalization, and inequality drove a 40 year boom in the aggregate level of savings that peaked during the pandemic. This era is now over, largely because of changes in demographics and globalization, but also because of a need for more physical investment in the real econom... (read more)

What is the vote with the “x” right next to the karma vote?

Bloomberg is estimating the recent events have caused SBF’s net worth to decline 94% from $15.6B to $1B. I think they are suggesting Alameda and FTX have zero value. I hope that is not accurate. In combination with the 75% decline in Meta it would mean a lot less funding for EA causes until new mega donors are recruited.

It's interesting that the time of "life getting better" is basically the same time as "humans increasingly using fossil fuels." I have heard the argument (which I am not yet educated enough to have an opinion on) that all of the economic growth and improvements in standards of living over the last few hundred years have been enabled by cheap, abundant, dense, and easily transportable energy, aka fossil fuels. 

Therefore, one reason we could be on the cusp of a crazier time is that the world is basically telling fossil fuel companies to limit new explor... (read more)

Thanks for your post. You offer valuable thoughts, and I only have one small additional one. Having now been through a stage of my career where I have done hiring, I know the process is way more arbitrary (and less sophisticated) than I previously realized. When I was younger I used to take job rejections way more personally than I should have based on what I know now. There are all sorts of sub-optimal reasons hiring decisions are made, and applicants should not take rejection as a strong signal about their skills, talents, or future potential (IMO). Stil... (read more)

Was I the only one who found it coincidental that there was this conversation about a more technologically advanced intelligence colonizing the galaxy just a few months after the US government released a report acknowledging we have no explanations for all the UFO sightings over the past decades? It seems like perhaps life on another planet beat Holden's most important century to the punch. Maybe we are their simulation? I never thought much about UFOs before 2021, but given the evidence that has come to light, it seems like Occam's razor suggests a vastly more technologically sophisticated intelligence is already on earth.

I agree on the challenges of deploying results. I think the primary value in public health research is empowering individuals to make good decisions for themselves. For example, sites like WedMD and Healthline add a lot of value for individuals trying to improve their families' health. I don't think the answer is already out there on obesity and many other chronic diseases. If it is, I would appreciate someone directing me to it. :)