I also think the UAP topic is relevant to animal welfare, as the presence of a more intelligent species with great power over humans could cause us to think twice about our treatment of animals.

I encourage those who are skeptical to study the documentaries The Age of Disclosure, The Phenomenon, and The Program as well as the book UFOs by Leslie Kean before dismissing the topic.

Why did Open Philanthropy choose to exit the areas you mentioned? Did they offer a rationale anywhere?

Along these lines, I work in finance in NYC and had been considering doing a lot more to raise awareness around EtG and the 10% pledge amongst the “Wall St” community. This group should be a natural fit for the pledge given the high taxes in the area, the inclination toward calculated and rational decision making, and the history of finance industry associating itself with philanthropy, like the Robin Hood Foundation.

I see EA as the natural extension of the Robin Hood Foundation now that we have a lot more data about the effectiveness of international giving.

It could be a community within the broader community. Which would also increase adherence to the pledge.

I agree it’s not >50% probability, but it’s high enough of a probability that we should be very concerned about it.

I’m sure I won’t do a good job of describing all the evidence in this comment, but here’s a link (https://youtu.be/dwtUoJfkHlQ?si=80d8M4e5e1y0P9UF) to a recent podcast in which a historian specializing in authoritarianism outlines how Trump is following the standard playbook of leaders, like Putin and Xi, who have consolidated power and made their countries less democratic for a prolonged period of time.

A key difference between the last time Trump was president and this time is that last time the military, the DOJ, and other government departments opposed his illegal requests on the grounds that their highest loyalty was to the U.S. Constitution. Trump has stated specifically he wants to avoid that resistance this time, which is why he is appointing his most die hard loyalists to the top positions in defense, intelligence, and Justice. That should be an enormous red flag.

Democracy is actually quite rare in the historical context, and there are many example of democratic governments turning into authoritarian governments. We should not assume that history is on our side.

Finally, it is clear that the current global trend is toward less democratic and more authoritarian governments. That may be because of information manipulation, globalization backlash, or other reasons. But it is the current direction of things.

This is why I direct >90% of my giving to farm animal causes like THL, MFA, and the EA animal welfare fund.

Fantastic piece. A lot to think about and digest. Thank you for writing this.

How can we best follow your work? Do you have a social media handle or email list we should subscribe to?

The FTX episode reminds me of Theranos, in that if I try to take a charitable view of what the founder was doing in each case, I could postulate they believed they needed to "fake it till you make it." In fact, this is advice I have even heard successful entrepreneurs give other aspiring entrepreneurs: "fake it till you make it." 

Starting a new company is such a daunting and overwhelming task that those who attempt to do it are going to self select for certain traits. They will tend to be over confident in themselves, they will start endeavors without being sure of their ability to execute on them, they will be reluctant to give up in the face of evidence that they should, they will be charismatic salespeople who can convince others to join them in their efforts and customers to buy their products, and they will believe the ends justify the means in making the company succeed.

The biggest lesson of FTX (for me) is that given who entrepreneurship self selects for, and given the inherent challenges in entrepreneurship and the incentives that it creates, the ground is perhaps fertile for fraud and other immorality.

Obviously entrepreneurship is still important and I do not mean to discourage anyone with a good idea from pursuing it, but we should all be aware of the pressures it creates and the vulnerabilities to bad behavior.

Thank you for putting this together!