Michał Dubrawski

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What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?

You are probably right but it would be great to have access to the data and check if it is true. I have already spoken with Tamay about the idea od Metaculus data dumps, but if Metaculus Team decides to implement this in some form, it will take time. I will try to gather this data using some script.

What are some low-information priors that you find practically useful for thinking about the world?

Regarding the proportion of Metaculus binary questions resolving “yes”, it is worth noting that this has recently changed. Here is what Anthony Aguirre wrote on the Metaculus discord channel on 10th of July:

I'd like to note a meta trend that things are happening: since March 1, by my rough count 54% of binary questions on Metaculus and 62% of binary questions on Pandemic have resolved positively; this is marketly different from this historical average of ~30%.