An interesting thought, but I think this overlooks the fact that wealth is heavy tailed. So it is (probably) higher EV to have someone with a 10% shot at their tech startup getting huge than one person with a 100% chance of running a succesful plumbing company.
This is a great comment, you may want to consider making it a top level post on the forum so more people will see it.
A lot of people got into EA after reading a book, and a lot of people find new topics to investigate by reading newspaper articles.
The content of this comment seems reasonable to me. How is it "LARPing"?
I meant broad sense existential risk, not just extinction. The first graph is supposed to represent a specific worldview where the relevant form of existential risk is extinction, and extinction is reasonably likely. In particular I had Eliezer Yudkowsky's views about AI in mind. (But I decided to draw a graph with the transition around 50% rather than his 99% or so, because I thought it would be clearer.) One could certainly draw many more graphs, or change the descriptions of the existing graphs, without representing everyone's thoughts on the function mapping percentile performance to total realized value.
Thanks for explaining how you think about this issue, I will have to consider that more. My first thought is that I'm not utilitarian enough to say that a universe full of happy biological beings is ~0.0% as good as if they were digital, even conditioning on being biological being the wrong decision. But maybe I would agree on other possible disjunctive traps.
FWIW, when I first saw that I wondered "what's the difference between the A-aesthetic and the B-aesthetic?" It might be clearer to say "non-aesthetic" or just something like "no frills".
Thanks for this post. I wonder if it would be good to somehow target different outside of EA subcultures with messaging corresponding to their nearest-neighbor EA subculture. To some extent I guess this already happens, but maybe there is an advantage to explicitly thinking about it in these terms.
Why, if you don't mind me asking?
His name is Carrick Flynn, not Flynn Carrick.
Have his thoughts on the mathematical universe idea changed since he first put it forward?