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James Montavon's Shortform

An interesting thought, but I think this overlooks the fact that wealth is heavy tailed. So it is (probably) higher EV to have someone with a 10% shot at their tech startup getting huge than one person with a 100% chance of running a succesful plumbing company.

Some potential lessons from Carrick’s Congressional bid

This is a great comment, you may want to consider making it a top level post on the forum so more people will see it.

Most students who would agree with EA ideas haven't heard of EA yet (results of a large-scale survey)

A lot of people got into EA after reading a book, and a lot of people find new topics to investigate by reading newspaper articles.

Early spending research and Carrick Flynn

The content of this comment seems reasonable to me. How is it "LARPing"? 

Past and Future Trajectory Changes

I meant broad sense existential risk, not just extinction. The first graph is supposed to represent a specific worldview where the relevant form of existential risk is extinction, and extinction is reasonably likely. In particular I had Eliezer Yudkowsky's views about AI in mind. (But I decided to draw a graph with the transition around 50% rather than his 99% or so, because I thought it would be clearer.) One could certainly draw many more graphs, or change the descriptions of the existing graphs, without representing everyone's thoughts on the function mapping percentile performance to total realized value. 

Thanks for explaining how you think about this issue, I will have to consider that more. My first thought is that I'm not utilitarian enough to say that a universe full of happy biological beings is ~0.0% as good as if they were digital, even conditioning on being biological being the wrong decision. But maybe I would agree on other possible disjunctive traps.

The Many Faces of Effective Altruism

FWIW, when I first saw that I wondered "what's the difference between the A-aesthetic and the B-aesthetic?" It might be clearer to say "non-aesthetic" or just something like "no frills".

The Many Faces of Effective Altruism

Thanks for this post. I wonder if it would be good to somehow target different outside of  EA subcultures with messaging corresponding to their nearest-neighbor EA subculture. To some extent I guess this already happens, but maybe there is an advantage to explicitly thinking about it in these terms.

eca's Shortform

Why, if you don't mind me asking?

I'm interviewing Max Tegmark about AI safety and more. What shouId I ask him?
Answer by N NMay 13, 20221

Have his thoughts on the mathematical universe idea changed since he first put it forward?

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