nemeryxu

PhD student @ UCLA
Pursuing a doctoral degree (e.g. PhD)
16Joined Aug 2022

Participation
3

  • Attended an EA Global conference
  • Attended more than three meetings with a local EA group
  • Received career coaching from 80,000 Hours

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Information in risky technology races

Thanks for your thoughts!

  1. Good question! I'll need to think more about this, but my initial impression is that regular surveying of developers about AI progress could help by quantifying their level of uncertainty over the arrival rate of particular milestones, which is likely correlated with how they believe expected capabilities investments map onto progress.
  2. That seems right, though it likely depends upon how substitutable safety research is across firms.