Research Fellow at GovAI, background in Experimental Psychology. Working on public and expert opinion on AI.
Preprint is up and can be found here. Table S7 in the appendix may be particularly useful to answer some of the above. There will be two new surveys this year that gather new data on HLMI forecasts and the results will be out a lot faster this time round.
We will be posting a follow up of Grace et al from a 2019 survey soon. Can link here once it is up. I’ll also make sure the figures for shorter years from now or lower percent probability are noted in the article somewhere.
Edit: For what it's worth it is around 8% by 2032 in this sample.
The Good Ancestor by Roman Krznaric notes a host of examples of art that help stimulate conceptions of deep time, the future, future generations, etc. that may be relevant to longtermism.
I've been playing around with the idea of doing something in this direction - if any collaborators want to work on doing some survey or experimental work exploring this, feel free to reach out!