We will be posting a follow up of Grace et al from a 2019 survey soon. Can link here once it is up. I’ll also make sure the figures for shorter years from now or lower percent probability are noted in the article somewhere.
Edit: For what it's worth it is around 8% by 2032 in this sample.
The Good Ancestor by Roman Krznaric notes a host of examples of art that help stimulate conceptions of deep time, the future, future generations, etc. that may be relevant to longtermism.
I've been playing around with the idea of doing something in this direction - if any collaborators want to work on doing some survey or experimental work exploring this, feel free to reach out!
Relatedly but not an answer to the question: I am currently working on a survey of AI researchers on AI sentience/subjective experience with Jeff Sebo, Lucius Caviola, Joshua Lewis, Kate Mays, and David Chalmers. I also know that the Mind, Ethics, and Policy Program at NYU has relevant ongoing projects.