All of NoemiD's Comments + Replies

AGI x-risk timelines: 10% chance (by year X) estimates should be the headline, not 50%.

We will be posting a follow up of Grace et al from a 2019 survey soon. Can link here once it is up. I’ll also make sure the figures for shorter years from now or lower percent probability are noted in the article somewhere.

Edit: For what it's worth it is around 8% by 2032 in this sample.

4Greg_Colbourn3mo
Cool, thanks!
What are some artworks relevant to EA?

The Good Ancestor by Roman Krznaric notes a host of examples of art that help stimulate conceptions of deep time, the future, future generations, etc. that may be relevant to longtermism.

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2Lizka4mo
I really enjoy Cage's piece
What questions relevant to EA could be answered by surveying the public?

I've been playing around with the idea of doing something in this direction - if any collaborators want to work on doing some survey or experimental work exploring this, feel free to reach out!

2weeatquince4mo
I am doing work on this in the UK. Will PM you. Edit: I do plan to do some of this. So if anyone else is interested in helping with such work on the UK do let me know.