21Joined Jun 2022


This comment is currently at -6 agreement votes. Does anyone want to explain to me why this is so?

Thanks; what has Avraham done that makes him longtermist? Did he / does he identify as longtermist?

I'm not aware of the two separate theft incidents (or forgot about one), can you tell me more about them?

There is internal discord within Samotsvety about the degree to which the magnitude of the difference between our current and former probabilities is indicative of a lack of accuracy. We Samotsvety updated our endline monthly probability of London being hit with a nuclear weapon by ~5x (0.055% vs 0.067 * 0.18 = 0.012%).

This number is before you made the correction, is that right? Can you edit this to highlight the fact that it (aiui) does not apply any more?

I agree that there's a difference in the social dynamics of being vigilant about mistakes vs being vigilant about intentions. I agree with your point in the sense that worlds in which the community is skeptical of OP's intentions tend to have worse social dynamics than worlds in which it isn't.
But you seem to be implying something beyond that; that people should be less skeptical of OP's intentions given the evidence we see right now, and/or that people should be more hesitant to express that skepticism. Am I understanding you correctly, and what's your reasoning here?

My intuition is that a norm against expressing skepticism of orgs' intentions wouldn't usefully reduce community skepticism, because community members can just see this norm and infer that there's probably some private skepticism (just like I update when reading your comment and the tone of the rest of the thread). And without open communication, community members' level of skepticism will be noisier (for example, Nuño starting out much more trusting and deferential than the EA average before he started looking into this).