Well done, it's super cool to see everything you guys have achieved this year. One thing I was surprised by is that EAGxs are almost three times cheaper than EAGs while having a slightly higher likelihood to recommend. I assume part of this is because EAGs are typically held in more expensive areas, but I'd be surprised if that explained all of it. Are there any other factors that explain the cost difference?
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Great post. I'm wondering if you could expand on this statement?
Additionally, we have a higher tolerance for PR risks than most, and are thus able to fund a broader range of projects with higher expected impact.
Could you provide examples of grants with PR risks (hypothetical or real) that LTFF would fund but OpenPhil wouldn't?
AI experts have said in polls that building AGI carries a 14-30% chance of causing human extinction!
My colleague took the median number of 14% from the latest AI Impacts survey
FWIW I believe the median value from the linked survey is 5%. The only relevant place where 14% shows up is that it is the mean probability researchers place on high-level machine intelligence being extremely bad for humanity. The median probability for the same answer is 5% and the median answer to the more specific question "What probability do you put on future AI advances causing human extinction or similarly permanent and severe disempowerment of the human species?" is also 5%
Welcome to the forum, I'm a fan of the pod! Hoping to see some B2B SaaS content from you here in the coming months