cG made more AI policy grants than this in 2025! E.g. just from the >$1M bucket, there was also Oxford AI governance Initiative, Global Shield Global Catastrophic Risks Advocacy, Center for a New American Security, GovAI, Tarbell Center for AI Journalism, and maybe others I am missing!

whoops, thanks, fixed

Good point. According to this manifold market an IPO within the next year is ~75% likely.

Fun! (the url at the top points to the /birds rather than /music page by mistake)

Anthropic revenue is actually about $20B I believe.

Good point, that seems like a big risk! I expect the fraction of sentience that is (post)human or digital to be quite high, especially compared to today, in the intergalactic future. But improving values wrt wild animals seems important.

A world of intelligence too cheap to meter is more teleological: constraints and tradeoffs that exist now are washed away, and what matters is mainly what people ultimately value. And more people ultimately value animal welfare than animal diswelfare. The main game is wild animals, and the ~only way for things to go well for them is if we build an ASI that can eventually reshape the natural world to be less suffering filled. I think it is very unlikely farmed animal suffering is exported to other galaxies in a major way, because at technological maturity animals will not be the mose efficient way to meet human material needs.

Also, for those of us working in AI governance, 'cG' and 'CIGI' (the Center for International Governance Innovation) sound the same out loud. But in writing, I tend to use cG too.

What AI timelines are highest impact to act on?

I feel torn, and I think it varies a lot depending on your individual circumstances and opportunities. But overall, I think the arguments for prioritising shorter timelines are a bit stronger.

While I don't work in GHD, I still enjoy reading GHD content on the Forum and on Substack. I agree that interesting questions in GHD are far from solved, but I wonder if a lot of the low-hanging intellectual fruit has been picked (your number 5)? I wasn't around in early GiveWell days but I imagine that would have been an amazing time to be thinking about GHD and coming up with lots of new approaches and ideas. I haven't found GiveWell's research to be that surprising or interesting lately for instance (vibes-based, I don't engage that closely with them anymore).

I would be keen to hear more from CE charities about what things they are learning and what questions they are facing!

Re your solution #2, I think I probably wouldn't want the Forum team to show 'favouritism', but the decline of GHD curated posts is interesting, and maybe that should change.