All of Peter McIntyre's Comments + Replies

Thanks for saying! Let me know if you invent a time machine – I've got some ideas

It's great to see more funding for meta initiatives, so thank you for your work on the MCF!

and we will welcome similar applications as the last round, especially "giving multipliers" that help grow the pie of effective donations.

Could you say more about your circle's reasons for focusing on giving multipliers? I'd be especially curious about why you might focus on donations instead of multiplying other resources like human capital.

(Maybe answered in the first question) What is the object-level cause prioritisation of circle funders?

3
Vilhelm Skoglund
3mo
Hi Peter,  Thanks for the questions. I am afraid I cannot give a particularly good answer, as each member speaks and makes decisions for themselves, and I have not properly investigated the things you are asking about. I hope to build higher clarity on this over time and give a better answer, but I will say a few high-level things that I think are true and might shine some light.  - Several members prioritize global health and well-being (high confidence) and think that this cause seems more funding-constrained than talent-constrained (low confidence) - Some members are more excited about projects with clear feedback loops (medium confidence) - Some members think there is an opportunity here as few other funders are focusing on giving multipliers (low confidence) Importantly these are my impressions, not more. Also, it does not reflect all members' views. E.g. I prioritize GCRs and multiplying human capital, due to thinking this is more important than financial capital for the causes I think are most important.   

Thanks! I'm the author of most of the concepts on Conceptually, and also the founder of Non-trivial. I'll send you an email. :)

I think I'd find them helpful, though it's hard to say for sure. As one data point, I'm currently at an extremely basic level of learning javascript, and I find Codecademy's quizzes useful (as well as the project-based learning, which might be cool to replicate for EA but would take a lot of work).

FWIW the quizzes are by far our most popular feature amongst users I'm doing interviews with.

Re: making them optional. It's possible this would be better, but if a user wants to skip a quiz they can very quickly give a dummy answer, which is an ok user experience... (read more)

7
Owen Cotton-Barratt
2y
Re. skipping the quiz by putting in a dummy answer: I agree the user experience is fine if people are bought into doing the whole thing. My worry is that when I try to imagine young-me, (I think) I'd feel some allergy to the fact-of-compulsory-quizzes, because of the implicit social contract of something like "these people know better; I'm here to be judged". Which might put me off the site (either making me stop reading, or just orient to the site as "something to be exploited" rather than "my friend to help me").

I really like this framing and we'll update it to something like this soon. Thanks!

Thanks, Viha – that's very kind of you to say. Reach out if you have any thoughts on how we could improve the course :)

The reason why we ask for sign in is that it allows the user to track their progress through the course, one of our user's favourite features. Learning about EA can at be an overwhelming sea of links, and we wanted to give users a clearer way to track their progress through it.

The other reason is that it's on our backlog to consider, but didn't get to it in time for launch.

I'd be curious too. We haven't had enough traffic to A/b test anything yet 😅

I found this thread helpful, thanks everyone. I'll pass it on to our designer.

To be totally honest, I didn't actually check and just assumed. However, my read of the style guides is that you don't capitalise the second word in hyphenated titles if there's a prefix (source).

3
Rebecca
2y
That seems unusual to me but fair enough - however in this case we're talking about a proper noun (the name of an organisation), not a common noun that happens to be in a title/heading (e.g. 'Non-trivial Efforts to Improve the Future are Possible').

Yeah I agree that some talented teenagers don't want to engage with material targeted at their age group. 

I try not to use the word teenager on the site (there may be some old references), and write basically as if it's for me at my current age without assuming the knowledge I have. 

But I'm not at all sure we've got the tone and design right – I'd appreciate hearing if anyone finds any examples on the site of something that seems condescending, belittling, or  unempowering etc..

Interested if you'd find the quizzes good for you at your current age? The existence of compulsory quizzes strikes me as sort of condescending. (I'd feel better about the vibe if the same content were framed as optional-but-encouraged puzzles.)

Ah makes sense! That was an old feedback form we had – I expect few users will discover this in the future.

Thanks! That's helpful. Also tested the link from the contact us page. I'll tentatively declare it fixed until I hear another report.

2
Kirsten
2y
Oh, I've figured it out! It was from your newsletter. That link still has an error. https://mailchi.mp/d517004dc4e0/fulfilling-impactful-careers-non-trivial-pursuits-1

I think it's a tradeoff between an easier question to create a success spiral, and a challenging question to spark curiosity. But you might be right that the first question is a bit too easy though – we did also get similar feedback on this question recently.

Thanks for raising this! 

We haven't gotten this feedback in our user interviews yet (most have appreciated the effort to make it more visual and accessible), so I'd be curious to investigate this some more at some point.

5
Quadratic Reciprocity
2y
That seems fine since you can't appeal to every type of promising teenager anyway.  Like some folks (who might have found some EA questions very interesting/important) might bounce off pretty quickly but that's okay because they would bounce off with positive-ish feelings about the content (similar to how they feel about recycling) so no harm done as they can be engaged by something else further down the line.  (It could also be because I'm thinking of talented teenagers (15+ year olds) as basically capable of engaging just as well with content designed for university students/adults but who need some extra resources/help with their specific circumstances rather than requiring entirely new introductory resources that in some ways feel dumbed down) I'm overall glad that this exists, those are just random thoughts! :)

Thanks for flagging this! 

Can I confirm you're getting that error on this link?

2
Kirsten
2y
No, that link works fine, but when I clicked through from the website it didn't work I tried again, this time from this page, and it worked fine so maybe it's a one-off? Can't remember which page I originally clicked through from https://archive.non-trivial.org/contact-us

Strongly upvoted because I think product is an important, underrated framework for movement building (though I only skimmed). 

(I think it's particularly true for building web products, and if you're running other services like 1:1s you might find fields like service design or sales more useful.)

The product development literature has informed a lot of the processes and frameworks I'm using to build Non-trivial Pursuits

My take on the best two books to get up to speed on modern product development:

  1. Inspired, by Marty Cagan
  2. Continuous Discovery Habit
... (read more)
2
Jack R
2y
Thank you Peter! Definitely taking a look at the books and resources. Also, I now link your comment in the tldr of the post :)

I believe you can do this search with a subscription to a paid LinkedIn subscription, like Recruiter Lite.

2
Jamie_Harris
2y
Yep, you can.  (I thought you could do it on the unpaid version too but I just checked and can't see it. I specifically remember having the functionality to use specific search filters restricted to only people within certain groups when I had recruiter Lite though.)

What do you think of the proposals in Longtermist Institutional Reform? If you're supportive, what should happen at the current margin to push them forward?

Thanks for the great summary! 

For effective altruists, I think (based on the topic and execution) it's straightforwardly the #1 book you should use when you want to recruit new people to EA.

I really liked the book, and think it's an important read for folks early in their EA journey but I want to quickly say that I disagree with this claim.  The book "doesn't actually talk much about EA", so it'd be surprising if it was the best introduction to a field. Statistics is a useful field for understanding and contributing to social science, but it'd be surprising if it was straightforwardly the #1 book to recommend to someone wanting to learn social science. 

If someone's specifically looking for a book about EA, I wouldn't give them Scout Mindset and say 'this is a great introduction to EA' -- it's not!  Riffing on your analogy, it's more like a world where:

  • There's a book about statistics (or whatever) that happens to be especially useful as a prereq for social science resources -- e.g., it provides the core tools for evaluating social-science claims, even if it doesn't discuss social science on the object level.
  • Social science departments end up healthier when they filter on the kind of person who's inter
... (read more)

I imported them into RemNote where you can read all the cards. You can also quiz yourself on the questions using the queue functionality at the top.  Or here's a Google Doc.

If someone was interested in adding more facts to the deck, there are a bunch in these notes from The Precipice. (It's fairly easy to export from RemNote to Anki and vice versa, though formatting is sometimes a little broken.)

3
Pablo
3y
Thanks, I'll try to add these shorty.

Awesome, glad to hear that! Thanks, JP!

Is there a way to show my appreciation for an edit? 

Often I see excellent edits[1] to the Wiki show up in my Forum homepage, and I would like to be able to show my appreciation to someone[2].  Ideally with low effort and without otherwise adding any value.

Is there a like/upvote button for Wiki edits I'm missing?

--

[1] For example, check out how much information this article on iterated embryo selection is collating and condensing. It was written a few months ago, and is now Google's featured snippet for iterated embryo selection (a sign that Googl... (read more)

5
JP Addison
3y
Voting on edits is recently in the pipeline.  In the mean time you can comment on the tag, which gives the author public recognition.

Thanks for writing this!

Just wanted to let everyone know that at 80,000 Hours we’ve started headhunting for EA orgs and I’m working full-time leading that project. We’re advised by a headhunter from another industry, and as suggested, are attempting to implement executive search best practices.

Have reached out to your emails listed above - looking forward to speaking.

Peter

Great article, thanks Carrick!

If you're an EA who wants to work on AI policy/strategy (including in support roles), you should absolutely get in touch with 80,000 Hours about coaching. Often, we've been able to help people interested in the area clarify how they can contribute, made introductions etc.

Apply for coaching here.

We agree these are technical problems, but for most people, all else being equal, it seems more useful to learn ML rather than cog sci/psych. Caveats:

  1. Personal fit could dominate this equation though, so I'd be excited about people tackling AI safety from a variety of fields.
  2. It's an equilibrium. The more people already attacking a problem using one toolkit, the more we should be sending people to learn other toolkits to attack it.
3
Kaj_Sotala
7y
Got it. To clarify: if the question as framed as "should AI safety researchers learn ML, or should they learn cogsci/psych", then I agree that it seems better to learn ML.

Hi Kaj,

Thanks for writing this. Since you mention some 80,000 Hours content, I thought I’d respond briefly with our perspective.

We had intended the career review and AI safety syllabus to be about what you’d need to do from a technical AI research perspective. I’ve added a note to clarify this.

We agree that there a lot of approaches you could take to tackle AI risk, but currently expect that technical AI research will be where a large amount of the effort is required. However, we’ve also advised many people on non-technical routes to impacting AI safety, s... (read more)

4
Kaj_Sotala
7y
Hi Peter, thanks for the response! Your comment seems to suggest that you don't think the arguments in my post are relevant for technical AI safety research. Do you feel that I didn't make a persuasive case for psych/cogsci being relevant for value learning/multi-level world-models research, or do you not count these as technical AI safety research? Or am I misunderstanding you somehow? I agree that the "understanding psychology may help persuade more people to work on/care about AI safety" and "analyzing human intelligences may suggest things about takeoff scenarios" points aren't related to technical safety research, but value learning and multi-level world-models are very much technical problems to me.

Thanks for writing this up! It's very useful to be able to compare this to census data. Did you use the same/similar message for everyone? If so, I'd be interested to see what it was. This sort of thing would also be useful to a/b test to refine it. There is also the option to add people manually, bypassing the need for admin approval; did you contact these people too?

2
ClaireZabel
9y
We used: "Hey, welcome to the Effective Altruism facebook group! If you have a moment, would you mind telling us where you first heard about EA? Thanks! Claire (moderator)" We are considering a/b testing some new questions, and would love suggestions on different phrasing. And when someone in the group adds a new member, we still have to approve them. We messaged them as well.

Hi Eric, thanks for writing these and pointing us to them. I think this is a great idea. I just posted these on our business society and law society Facebook page to test the waters and see what response we'd get from a similar input. Out of interest, what has the response been that you've gotten so far?

1[anonymous]9y
I would guess that the first article would have had a quite positive response. It was well written, and a pleasure to read. But I fear the second article has not had as positive a response, for two reasons: 1. It appears to be dismissive and cynical of its own target audience - and from the very first sentence: "For people systematically chosen for being able to root out and analyze the rationality of arguments, lawyers are pitifully bad at being reasonable." It goes on to do things such as dismiss the positive impact of believed-to-be-ethical jobs as 'the warm fuzzies', without justification. 2. It doesn't address what its target audience believes to be the biggest factor in determining an ethical job; the direct impact of the job; the millions of dollars which the big corporation sues from the more deserving; the dozens of individuals the public lawyer works to help. Writing these articles can do a great amount of good, and is to be commended. But to maximise this good, we should be meticulous about catering to the needs of our audience.
1
Rohin Shah
9y
Adding on to this question, there are a lot of negative comments on the second article - do you think that represents a vocal minority, or a majority, and why? It would be interesting to try this at Berkeley as well, although we'd probably have a different target audience depending on where the article gets published.

Thanks for posting this. I think explicitly asking for critical feedback is very useful.

If the intervention is not currently supported by a large body of research then we want to fund/carry out a randomized controlled trial to test whether it’s worth pursuing this intervention.

RCTs are seriously expensive, would take years to get meaningful data, would need to be replicated as well before you could put much faith in it, and it wouldn't align with the core skillset I'd imagine you'd need to be starting an organisation (so you'd need to outsource it, wh... (read more)

1
Denise_Melchin
9y
Thank you for pointing this out. I had expected them to be a lot cheaper. If GiveWell, as Ben said, has decided against funding RCTs, I'm not very likely to be convinced of their usefulness either.
1
lincolnq
9y
But all those costs of RCTs are clearly worth it. Expensive? If your intervention is vaguely promising then EAs will throw enough money at you to get started. Time? Better get started now. Replication? More cost, EAs will fund. Outsource? Higher quality, EAs will fund.

If I remember correctly, CEA et al. decided against pursuing this strategy due to risk adversity. Due to the large downsides which may be unique to EA, it's not clear - to me at least - that our personal strategy should differ from this. I'd be interested in seeing some more thoughts on this.

2
Brian_Tomasik
9y
I agree the situation would be different for a single small organization or if the charity you're donating to depends sensitively on your donations. But if you're just an individual earning to give to relatively big charities (e.g., MIRI, which has a budget >$1m/year), then if you lose, say, ~$20K due to leverage, you can just make it up again with another ~2-3 months of work, and no major harm is done.

You've probably considered it, but it's not on your list: To hedge against any change in our consumption of meat, you could invest in in vitro meat, and other meat-alikes.

I think one of my concerns with this would be the consistency and commitment effect created by incentivising a criticism, leading to someone seeing herself as an EA critic, or opposed to these ideas. Similar to companies having rewards for customers writing why it's their favourite company or product in the world. See also the American prisoners of war of China in the Korean war (I think), having small incentives to write criticisms of America or Capitalism. If it were being seriously considered, it'd be good to see some more done to work out if this would be a real consequence.

Source: Influence, Cialdini.