All of peterhartree's Comments + Replies

To make things even faster: create a bookmark for "doc.new" and give it the name "nd". Then you can just type "nd" and press "enter".

Quick way to create a Google Doc—browse to this web address:

doc.new

I've found that having a quick way to create new docs makes me more likely to do so.

(To set your typing focus to the browser address bar, press CMD+L or CTRL+L)

My recent post on Scheffler discusses some of these themes:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NnYrFzXiTWerhTTkK/link-post-sam-scheffler-conservatism-temporal-bias-and

Interesting, thanks Aaron. This result seems roughly in line with the fraction of EAG attendees who wear EA t-shirts.

For what it's worth, this thread reminded me of Joshua Greene arguing that the brand of "utilitarianism" is so bad as to be a lost cause.

Greene suggests "deep pragmatism" for the rebrand.

I didn't downvote. For what it's worth, the main negative reaction I had was:

6. The use of the EA lightbulb as an example of a great symbol. Personally, I've always found it kind of amateurish and cringe. I think mainly because it combines two very tired cliches (a lightbulb to represent "ideas" and a heart to represent "altruism"? Really?!).

I suppose I could also complain that:

7. The claim that "symbolism is important" is not substantiated. Generically that seems true, but the claim that utilitarianism the philosophical idea needs a good/better symbol an

The salon recording is now available here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-uSDlbSXjw

A written summary is below:

We began by considering utilitarianism—particularly Sidgwick's "pleasure as desirable consciousness" hedonism—as a starting point for thinking about what matters. The value and failure modes of attempts at legibility and abstraction were discussed, as were different ideas about what makes a "meaningful" life. While accepting that utilitarian principles have, historically, supported important reforms (such as the de-criminalisation of homosexua

Somewhat related: Robert S. Pindyck on The Use and Misuse of Models for Climate Policy.

In short, his take (a) seems consistent with the claim that research and policy attention is being misallocated and (b) suggests a mechanism that might partly explain the misallocation.

Abstract (my emphasis):

In recent articles I have argued that integrated assessment models (IAMs) have flaws that make them close to useless as tools for policy analysis. IAM-based analyses of climate policy create a perception of knowledge and precision that is illusory and can fool poli

A post on this topic, discussing the Thiel Fellowship, Entrepreneur First, and other attempts: https://www.strangeloopcanon.com/p/on-medici-and-thiel

1. In some cases yes, but only when they were working on specific projects that I expected to be legible and palatable to EA funders. Are there places I should be sending people who I think are very promising to be considered for very low strings personal development / freedom-to-explore type funding?

A thought that motivates my other comments on this thread: reviewing my GWWC donations a while ago, I realised that if I suddenly had lots of money, one of the first questions I would ask myself is "what friends and acquaintances should I fund?". To an outsider this kind of thing can look like rather non-altruistic nepotism, but from the inside it seems like betting on the opportunities that you are unusually able to see. I think it actually is the latter, at least sometimes. My impression is that for profit investors do a lot of "nepotistic investing", but I suspect that values like altruism and impartiality and transparency (as well as constraints of charitable legal status) make EA funders reluctant to go hard on this method.

I would consider starting some kind of "major achievement" prize scheme.

Roughly, the idea I have in mind is to give large no-strings-attached lump sums to individuals who have:

(a) done exceptionally valuable work at non-trivial personal cost (e.g. massive salary sacrifice)

(b) a high likelihood of continuing to do extremely valuable work.

The aims would be:

(i) to help such figures become personally "set for life" in the way that successful startup founders sometimes do.

(ii) to improve the personal incentive structure faced by people considering EA careers.

Th... (read more)

I would consider allocating at least $100K to trying my own version of something like Tyler Cowen's Emergent Ventures.

Thanks for the post.

You give a gloss definition of "wild":

we should be doing a double take at any view that we live in such a special time

Could you say a bit more on this? I can think of many different reasons one might do a double take—my impression is that you're thinking of just a few of them, but I'm not sure exactly which.

Thank you for this, Gus and Sharon.

This interview presented one of the most compelling cases for a hedonistic theory of value that I've heard, shifting my credence from “quite low” to “hmm, ok, maaaaybe”.

Some bits that stood out:

1. Pluralistic conception of positive and negative experiences, i.e. experiences differ in intensity but also in character (so we can recognise fundamental differences between bodily pleasure, love, laughter, understanding, etc).

2. Hedonism can solve the epistemic problem that haunts moral realism, by saying that we directly experi

10. How do you give advice?

PS (Tyler Cowen): I think about what I believe, then I think about what it's useful for people to hear, and then I say that.

EA: I think about what I believe, and then I say that. I generally trust people to respond appropriately to what I say.

So here's a list of claims, with a cartoon response from someone that represents my impression of a typical EA/PS view on things (insert caveats here):

1. Some important parts of "developed world" culture are too pessimistic. It would be very valuable to blast a message of definite optimism, viz. "The human condition can be radically improved! We have done it in the past, and we can do it again. Here are some ideas we should try..."

PS: Strongly agree. The cultural norms that support and enable progress are more fragile than you think.

EA: Agree. But, as an

@ADS: I enjoyed your discussion of (1), but I understood the conclusion to be :shrug:. Is that where you're at?

Generally, my impression is that differential technological development is an idea that seems right in theory, but the project of figuring out how to apply it in practice seems rather... nascent. For example:

(a) Our stories about which areas we should speed up and slow down are pretty speculative, and while I'm sure we can improve them, the prospects for making them very robust seem limited. DTD does not free us from the uncomfortable position of ... (read more)

To your Beckstead paraphrase, I'll add Tyler's recent exchange with Joseph Walker:

Cowen: Uncertainty should not paralyse you: try to do your best, pursue maximum expected value, just avoid the moral nervousness, be a little Straussian about it. Like here’s a rule on average it’s a good rule we’re all gonna follow it. Bravo move on to the next thing. Be a builder.

Walker: So… Get on with it?

Cowen: Yes ultimately the nervous Nellie’s, they’re not philosophically sophisticated, they’re over indulging their own neuroticism, when you get right down to it. So

I've gotten several responses on this, and find them all fairly limited. As far as I can tell, the Progress Studies community just is not reasoning very well about x-risk.

Have you pressed Tyler Cowen on this?

I'm fairly confident that he has heard ~all the arguments that the effective altruism community has heard, and that he has understood them deeply. So I default to thinking that there's an interesting disagreement here, rather than a boring "hasn't heard the arguments" or "is making a basic mistake" thing going on.

In a recent note, I sketched a coupl... (read more)

Some questions to which I suspect key figures in Effective Altruism and Progress Studies would give different answers:

a. How much of a problem is it to have a mainstream culture that is afraid of technology, or that underrates its promise?

b. How does the rate of economic growth in the West affect the probability of political catastrophe, e.g. WWIII?

c. How fragile are Enlightenment norms of open, truth-seeking debate? (E.g. Deutsch thinks something like the Enlightenment "tried to happen" several times, and that these norms may be more fragile than we think... (read more)

Some notable discussions involving key figures:

• Rob Wiblin and Tyler Cowen
• David Deutsch and Martin Rees "Optimism, Knowledge and the Future of Enlightenment"
• David Deutsch "Knowledge Creation and Its Risks" (includes a comment on Bostrom's Urn)
• Patrick Collison commenting on effective altruism and existential risk
• Peter Thiel at the Effective Altruism summit in 2013
• Jason Crawford AMA on the EA Forum
• Applied Divinity Studies on Tyler Cowen & Effective Altruism

Bear in mind that I'm more familiar with the Effective Altruism community than I am with the Progress Studies community.

Some general impressions:

1. Superficially, key figures in Progress Studies seem a bit less interested in moral philosophy than those in Effective Altruism. But, Tyler Cowen is arguably as much a philosopher as he is an economist, and he co-authored Against The Discount Rate (1992) with Derek Parfit. Patrick Collison has read Reasons and Persons, The Precipice, and so on, and is a board member of The Long Now Foundation. Peter Thiel takes

Thanks for writing this, Jonas.

For what it's worth:

1. I share the concerns you mentioned.
2. I personally find the name "effective altruism" somewhat cringe and off-putting. I've become used to it over the years but I still hear it and feel embarrassed every now and then.
3. I find the label "effective altruist" several notches worse: that elicits a slight cringe reaction most of the time I encounter it.
4. The names "Global priorities" and "Progress studies" don't trigger a cringe reaction for me.
5. I have a couple of EA-inclined acquaintances who have told me they were pu

Jess & Michelle: thanks for this excellent post. Three remarks I'd like to add:

1. We all need support, but individuals vary considerably in the kind of support they need in order to flourish. A kind of support that works well for one person might feel patronising, frustrating or stifling to another, or cold, distant and uncaring to a third. To be effectively supportive, we must be sensitive to individual needs.

2. Being supportive is difficult, so individuals in the community should help others support them. If the support you're getting from the commu... (read more)

Nice work. We'll hopefully add this to the 80,000 Hours blog sidebar during Q1.

I think there are two questions here:

1. How much of my time should I allocate to altruistic endeavour?
2. How should I use the time I’ve allocated to altruistic endeavour?

Effective altruism clearly has a lot to say about (2). It could also say some things about (1), but I don’t think it is obliged to. These look like questions that can be addressed (fairly) independently of one another.

An aside: a weakness of the unqualified phrase “do the most good” is that it blurs these two questions. If you characterise the effective altruist as someone who wants to “do... (read more)

I strongly endorse what Rob said. Intense regular exercise is by far the best productivity and general well-being hack I've ever adopted. In my experience, once you get into it, it's the opposite of a chore.

Second-best hack (for focus): Pomodoro Technique (use Tadam as your timer (Mac only))

Third-best hack (for reducing stress): regular mindfulness meditation (about 10 minutes / day, use Headspace to learn the basics).