A $200k prize for publishing any analysis which we consider the canonical critique of the current position highlighted above on any of the above questions
Question: In this formulation, what is meant by the "current position"? Just asking to be sure.
It could refer to the specific credences outlined above, but it would seem somewhat strange to say (e.g.) "here is what we regard as the canonical critique of 'AGI will be developed by January 1, 2043 =/= 20%'". So I am inclined to believe that it probably means something else.
I would love to know, since I might consider writing a critique. In particular, I would love a list of specific points (or beliefs or pieces of writing) that you would like to see critiqued.