2009 karmaJoined Working (0-5 years)Berkeley, CA, USA


  • Completed the AGI Safety Fundamentals Virtual Program
  • Completed the In-Depth EA Virtual Program
  • Attended an EAGx conference
  • Attended an EA Global conference
  • Attended more than three meetings with a local EA group
  • Completed the Precipice Reading Group


how much better is chatgpt than claude, in your experience? I feel like it wouldn't be costly for me to drop down to free tier at openai but keep premium at anthropic, though I would miss the system prompt / custom gpt features. (I'm currently 20/month at both) 

I loved Liu's trilogy because it makes longtermism seem commonsensical. 

Decoupling is uncorrelated with the left-right political divide.

Say more? How do we know this?

3 year update: I consider this 2 year update to be a truncated version of the post, but it's actually too punchy and even superficial. 

My opinion lately / these days is too confused and nuanced to write about. 

thanks for the writeup! I had a ton of similar feelings for a while, mixing between finding people who say "it's not worth defending it's just a meme" and "actually I'll defend using something like this". 

At one point I was discussing this issue with Rob Miles at manifest, who told me something like "the default is a bool (some two valued variable)", the idea being that if people are arguing over an interval then we could've done way worse. 

While I think the fuzzies from cooperating with your vegan friends should be considered rewarding, I know what you mean--- it's not a satisfying moral handshake if it relies on a foundation of friendship! 

I'm pretty confident that people who prioritize their health or enjoyment of food over animal welfare can moral handshake with animal suffering vegans by tabooing poultry at the expense of beef. So a non-vegan can "meet halfway" on animal suffering by preferring beef over chicken.

Presumably, a similar moral handshake would work with climate vegans that just favors poultry over beef.

Is there a similar moral handshake between climate ameliaterians (who have a little chicken) and animal suffering (who have a little beef)?

Will @Austin’s ‘In defense of SBF’ have aged well? [resolves to poll]

Posting here because it's a well worth reading and underrated post, and the poll is currently active. The real reason I'm posting here is so that I can find the link later, since searching over Manifold's post feature doesn't really work, and searching over markets is unreliable. 

The poll is here, closing November 25th https://manifold.markets/NicoDelon/has-in-defense-of-sbf-by-austin-age?referrer=Quinn

Feel free to have discourse in the comments here. 

Any good literature reviews of feed conversion ratio you guys recommend? I found myself frustrated that it's measured in mass, I'd love a caloric version. The conversion would be straightforward given a nice dataset about what the animals are eating, I think? But I'd be prone to steep misunderstandings if it's my first time looking at an animal agriculture dataset. 

I'm willing to bite the tasty bullets on caring about caloric output divided by brain mass, even if it recommends the opposite of what feed conversion ratios recommend. But lots of moral uncertainty / cooperative reasons to know in more detail how the climate-based agricultural reform people should be expected to interpret the status quo. 

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