And sorry, I’m not going to be embarrassed about trying to improve the world

You, my friend, are not sorry :)

In my mind since EA premises are vague and generic, any criticism above a quality bar gets borg'd in. So no, I didn't ever see an "external" criticism of EA be any good-- if it was good, then it'd be internal criticism, as far as im concerned.

It's important to consider adverse selection. People who get hounded out of everywhere else are inexplicably* invited to a forecasting conference, of course they come! they have nowhere else to go! 

* inexplicably, in the sense that a forecasting conference is inviting people specialized in demographics and genetics-- it's a little related, but not that related. 

how much better is chatgpt than claude, in your experience? I feel like it wouldn't be costly for me to drop down to free tier at openai but keep premium at anthropic, though I would miss the system prompt / custom gpt features. (I'm currently 20/month at both) 

I loved Liu's trilogy because it makes longtermism seem commonsensical. 

Decoupling is uncorrelated with the left-right political divide.

Say more? How do we know this?

3 year update: I consider this 2 year update to be a truncated version of the post, but it's actually too punchy and even superficial. 

My opinion lately / these days is too confused and nuanced to write about. 

thanks for the writeup! I had a ton of similar feelings for a while, mixing between finding people who say "it's not worth defending it's just a meme" and "actually I'll defend using something like this". 

At one point I was discussing this issue with Rob Miles at manifest, who told me something like "the default is a bool (some two valued variable)", the idea being that if people are arguing over an interval then we could've done way worse. 

While I think the fuzzies from cooperating with your vegan friends should be considered rewarding, I know what you mean--- it's not a satisfying moral handshake if it relies on a foundation of friendship!