All of Rachel Shu's Comments + Replies

Does AMF still conduct follow-up studies on deployments at 6 month intervals, does it still intend to? I don’t see any published since 2019, but between the pandemic and budget shortfalls and what I assume to be fairly predictable study results I’d understand this receiving lower priority in recent years. I am not criticizing, I was just hoping to look into the numbers while doing research for a recent post.

Thanks so much for this! I’d only been thinking about the potential harms to people with fish welfare as a side note. You’re absolutely right that we can get a decent estimate on the added burden of fish suffering here, which will be relevant to the calculations of many EAs

6
Constance Li
24d
Fish welfare would be a big factor in my model about the net utility of free malaria nets. However, it seems really hard to calculate because we don't know the average net qualia of fish in these regions. If it is negative, then overfishing may be a positive thing for their welfare. 

I think this summary captured the article's main points quite well. Good bot!

Some extra context on scope: https://www.unicef.org/supply/media/13951/file/LLIN-Market-and-Supply-Update-October-2022.pdf

  • UNICEF directs about 30 million nets per year over the last few years. Not sure if counts partners and whether AMF counts as a partner.
  • By compare AMF has donated 250 million nets over the last 18 years, averaging 14 million per year.
  • Global net production is about 480 million per year, unsure what percent are charitably distributed vs purchased.
  • Presumably use of purchased nets is scarcely tracked at all.
  • Price per net is about $2 to
... (read more)

Noting that even with AMF's tracking methodology I'm not seeing strong evidence that nets distributed are not being diverted even within AMF's tracking period:

For example, this survey shows about 36% utilization as intended at the 18 month mark. Since they don't need to be brand new to be used as fishing nets, some portion of the other 64% might be serving an economically productive second life. https://www.againstmalaria.com/Distribution1.aspx?ProposalID=194 (The link to underlying data sadly appears to be broken at the moment, and no detailed report is p... (read more)

Thank you for adding this clarification! It's good to determine whether EA-driven funds are unlikely to be substantially exacerbating the issue. Other bednet distributors besides AMF may have worse outcome tracking methods but that is outside of the EA community scope to discipline.

One minor caveat to your clarification is that many of the nets are reused for fishing only after they are considered too worn out for bednet use, at which point even distributors using AMF's methodology may no longer be tracking their utilization.

7
Rachel Shu
3mo
Noting that even with AMF's tracking methodology I'm not seeing strong evidence that nets distributed are not being diverted even within AMF's tracking period: For example, this survey shows about 36% utilization as intended at the 18 month mark. Since they don't need to be brand new to be used as fishing nets, some portion of the other 64% might be serving an economically productive second life. https://www.againstmalaria.com/Distribution1.aspx?ProposalID=194 (The link to underlying data sadly appears to be broken at the moment, and no detailed report is provided, only the overview.) Also, AMF has documented far fewer surveys than 'monitor every distribution effort every six months for three years' as implied by the 2015 article Marzhin cites - actually doing so may be cost prohibited. Furthermore no surveys have been published since 2019, I'm assuming COVID was a major contributor there. All the tracking here: https://www.againstmalaria.com/Distributions.aspx?MapID=1

I haven't - even after this much research I don't feel epistemically confident enough to do so. I welcome anyone else to do it!

6
Linch
3mo
Some useful tips/data points for people to narrow down uncertainty: * https://ourworldindata.org/malaria-net-results  * "The study's authors estimate that the three interventions averted 663 million cases of malaria in the 15 year period. Insecticide-treated bed nets were by far the most important intervention of the three, preventing 68% of the averted cases." * World Bank on African fisheries * "Fisheries contribute to Africa’s economy. Currently, fisheries and aquaculture directly contribute $24 billion to the African economy, representing 1.3% of the total African GDP in 2011. The sector provides employment to over 12 million people (58% in the fishing and 42% in the processing sector). While fishing jobs are almost entirely taken by men, 59% of the processing work is done by women. Employment multiplier effects are remarkable: for example, for every fisherman job, 1.04 additional onshore-job is created in Mauritania, while this ratio reaches 3.15 in Guinea, illustrating the potential for further job creation through value chain development." * To narrow down the uncertainty further, you probably want to  * look at what percentage of fisheries specifically are in places that are likely to have MNF * remove "aquaculture" (fish farms) from the relevant stats. * I haven't thought much about what the marginal effects of nets on marginal fisheries is; I think someone who explores this for an hour or so can draw some reasonable-looking curves. (I originally thought fisheries will be a small enough fraction of the African economy that the upper bound of assuming 100% of bednets are used for MNF still isn't enough to be net negative; I no longer think that is certain).
2
David Mathers
3mo
Definitely outside of my capabilities, but somebody should! 

Thanks Jesse, wish we had more like this on the forum! I really appreciate being able to see more clearly what the obstacles between what seem like the most effective set of solutions and their actual implementations are, and how to overcome them.

3
JesseSmith
11mo
Thanks Rachel!

Thank you, Michael - this helps me better understand what occurred from your perspective. As mentioned in my post, it had become difficult to ask for clarification regarding the issue at hand, which is why I had not mentioned the outcome to you until now, and that is one of the ways I mentioned I would love to see improvements made in communications at large. I don't have any ill will towards you.

7
MichaelA
1y
(I've now responded via email.)

I replied to this in a longer comment. It was in fact at our discretion, we only received a suggestion from EAIF, and only applied to Zvi. However, I think a bunch of expectations set by communications norms affected how we made our decision, which is the substance of my comment.

Hi, I am the person who Sapphire chatted with. I worked on the documentary discussed with Larissa Schiavo. Our grant was evaluated by EA Infrastructure Fund in August 2021. I want to be clear that I don't speak for Larissa, and she had no knowledge of my conversation with Sapphire until now.

This post caught me by surprise, Sapphire did not communicate her intent with me prior to publication. I would have rather it came out differently. However,  I agree substantially with Sapphire's position with regards to leadership communication being frustrating a... (read more)

I feel like a lot of the ideas aren't really perceived as that weird, when I've discussed EA in intellectual circles unfamiliar with the concept? "Charity should first go to the most needy" is something most people espouse, even if they don't actually put it into action. A lot of my liberal friends are vegetarian or vegan for one reason or another and have strong opinions on animal abuse. The single most common complaint about politics is that it focuses too much on short-term incentives instead of long-term issues. That covers the top three; AI takeover? ... (read more)

Hey Ines! I'm with a team who's been working on this part-time (Sebastian Engen, Noah Lee, and I). We've got a Shopify frontend and Printful backend setup, I've tested our site and it works great in USA and presumably in EU. We also have a bit of USA nonprofit structure setup already. 

If you're interested I think the project is looking for more leads! We've been flying a bit under the radar since we wanted to nail the launch rather than doing a soft launch and all of us have other projects that are currently higher priority. However, if you've got mor... (read more)

1
Ines
2y
Do you work with Kat Woods? She mentioned some people on her team had already done some work on this and was meaning to put me in touch with them

Hi! I'm interested in hearing more about this work. 

I'm a documentarian currently co-directing a miniseries about high-impact interventions made by individuals and groups working on pandemic relief, such as Tomas Pueyo and the COVID Tracking Project. It's a way of discussing EA ideas in the context of a widely known cause area. We also received funding from EA grantmakers; I can probably at least advise on logistics, and may be able to do more.

Shoot me an email! rachel@rachelshu.com

1
Caro
2y
I'd be very excited to see a collaboration here! 

I wrote a suggestion here, about donating to campaign contributions, which are capped in the US so many small donors is better than one large donor. https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FffuQRBYjvm5hiaFw/there-s-a-role-for-small-ea-donors-in-campaign-finance