All of RayTaylor's Comments + Replies

Great to see this.

Three concerns on the Theory of Change, and a suggestion: 

1. ToC's tend to be neglected once written (hopefully not by y'all!) especially as they show a possible route to impact but not timings and "who all does what and by when" to achieve the shared goal by a particular date. (In this case, that could be the date you realistically expect bad  or misaligned ASI to entrench.) Have you considered doing a Critical Path plan (aka "Critical Pathway") as NASA did for Apollo? 

2. Another problem is that the last stages of your pla... (read more)

I looked for an abbreviation for "soft nationalisation" and couldn't find one.

SN or S-N would create multiple problems and confusions.

At first I liked StNN, as it can be pronounced "stun" and is better as a hashtag and search term than SN, but it is already taken, even within the field: spatial-temporal graph neural network (STNN)

So I suggest one of these two:

BASSN = Bad Artificial Superintelligence, Soft Nationalisation

BAPSN = Bad AI Prevention through Soft Nationalisation

 

NB It's iodide, not iodine (potassium iodide, KI) and it MUST be pharmaceutical grade, NOT photo grade. If you see someone dosing out Lugol's iodine to kids, politely take it off them and use it for wounds or sterilising fruit/veg.

If you don't have tablets, but do have pharmaceutical grade KI powder, you need a very accurate balance to weight the correct dose for children, something like this:
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B07RZR5HYF 

Buy it now. In an emergency, deliveries may be problematic.

Some other resources, which might be useful in other continents... (read more)

There's a contradiction between this:

 >If you believe in this community, you should believe in its ability to make its own decisions. 

and these:

>Diverse communities are typically much better at accurately analysing ...

>The EA community is notoriously homogenous, and the “average EA” is extremely easy to imagine: he is a white male in his twenties or thirties from 

I'm all for transparency, but it's not clear to me that normal "democracy" if it means "equal voting from the current EA constituency" is likely to make an improvement: as ... (read more)

"Scaling Studies" are a thing, now part of "Implementation Science". 

The focus tends to be what makes pilot projects scale-able, and what interferes with. Politicians and funders get (understandably) irritated when pilots keep failing to scale - this was happening a lot in the 1990s, which gave rise to the first studies on scaling. 

Implementation science looks more generally at what really works IRL / in the field - a lot is going on in this in Chicago and Global Health.

Thanks for choosing an important topic (maternal health) which can greatly affect infant and whole family health and prosperity.

Historically, the interventions which lead to a very helpful 2 year gap between pregnancies are called "birth spacing" or just "spacing". If others are interested in this, or stunting, or impacts on educational attainment/IQ, a lot is available.

USAID's work on the BASICS programme and its successors is especially important, and produced a lot of effectiveness outputs and lessons learned, available now through me, in books, and via... (read more)

This is perhaps even more important post SBF scandal, where putting out a large amount of positive information for the public to find is quite crucial.
 

If EAs don't talk to journalists they will miss out on one really important learning:

.... how to talk to journalists!

This seems very focused on EA and policy in USA and DC, rather than EA as a whole. 

One of the original themes of EA was global health and poverty - it would be nice if you could do a part 2 with a wider focus? After all, DC has plenty of global policy think tanks, IFPRI, USAID etc.

That's brilliant - is the work being extended to other countries?

That's brilliant - is the work being extended to other countries?

I agree that global health and poverty need giving now, and admire your willingness with being OK to create a drop in the bucket!

I'm working on interventions that interrupt inter-generational poverty / the poverty cycle, and some excellent USAID health research has identified infant cognitive stunting as a key lock on intergenerational poverty in Africa, and aflatoxin B1 as a key cause of that stunting, along with smoke, lead and malnutrition of mothers and adolescent girls.

Great post, very comprehensive - I'm sad it got less response.

I think it's wise to separate the FTX and due diligence issue from the broader thesis. Here I'm just commenting on due diligence with donors.

Who was/is responsible for checking the probity or criminality of ...

 (a) FTX and Almeda?

 (b) donors to a given charity like CEA? (I put some links on this below)

(a) First it's their own board/customers/investors, but presumably supervisory responsibility is or should also be with central bank regulators, FBI, etc. If the CEO of a company is a member of Rotary, donates to Oxfam, invests in a football team, i... (read more)

> healthy for people to separate giving to their community from altruism.

Is this realistically achievable, with the community we have now? How?

(I imagine it would take a comms team with a social psychology genius and a huge budget, and still would only work partially, and would require very strong buy in from current power players, and a revision of how EA is presented and introduced? but perhaps you think another, leaner and more viable approach is possible?)

>The simpler your path to impact is, the fewer failure points exist

That's not always true.&n

It's also hard to call people out when a lot of you are applying to him/them for funding, and are mostly focused on trying to explain how great and deserving your project is.

One good principle here is "be picky about your funders". Smaller amounts from steady, responsible, principled and competent funders, who both do and submit to due diligence, are better than large amounts from others. 

This doesn't mean you HAVE to agree with their politics or everything they say in public - it's more about having proper governance in place, and funders being separ... (read more)

Both of you now seem to be focusing specifically on funding for community building, whereas the original post was much broader:

... maybe if those broader issues were addressed, the question of which community-building to fund would then be easier to work out?

Hi David, I think I follow your thinking, but I'm not hopeful that there is a viable route to "ending the community" or "ending community-building" or ending people "identifying as EAs", even if a slight majority agreed it was desirable, which seems unlikely.

On the other hand, I vary much agree that a single Oxford or US-based organisation can't "own" and control the whole of effective altruism, and aiming not for a "perfect supertanker" but a varied "fleet" or "regatta" of EA entities would be preferable, and much more viable. Then supervision and gatekee... (read more)

Did something come of this in Dortmund or Koeln?

On diversity, the biggest deficit is language and all continents diversity, and with that come both conscious and unconscious limitations. This could be addressed, through:

(a) existing and future granting programmes
(b) real commitment to acceleration in Asia-Pacific, Africa, Latin America etc 
... maybe micro-offices in those continents?
(c) job ad placements "always in UN languages and Global South before english" to give non-native English speakers a fair chance / time to translate etc
(d) translation of headlines of important news / tweets into UN security council languages
(e) I have more but it's late, call me?

1. Overall thoughtful and helpful, but one major error which I hope you will be relieved to know about, and I'm sure others will:

>Assuming I’m right that, currently, perception doesn’t match reality, it means the core projects and people in EA should communicate more about what they are and are not taking responsibility for. 

I think this is very unlikely to be successful, and places a huge unwelcome "should" on a bunch of busy EAs, some of who won't be good at doing PR/comms/promo work on their own role.

It would be much better, easier and quicker t... (read more)

Maybe there isn't a point-in-time sweet spot, as your point about "adapting as you go along" makes clear?

In other words, maybe you need to develop resilience, preparedness, regulatory and response capacities at the same speed as the tech development (and maybe even slightly faster, if there is also AGI risk?)

I am very confident that regulation alone, and idealistic global agreements, will not be sufficient to remove most real world risks. A more comprehensive approach is needed. 

I'm happy to discuss privately about risk and response frameworks IRL with anyone who is serious about IRL implementation.

Isn't that "sunk cost fallacy" ?

If it's the right decision to sell and use the money a better way, that still applies, whether or not there is a small loss. To have a loss might be somewhat embarrassing, but truth is truth.

Anyway, in the UK you can put a property up for sale at an ideal price,  and see what offers come in. It's hard to know for sure what price you will get without doing that.

I think the problem is not so much to find the perfect governance system (which changes over time and with context) ...

... but how to get there from here?

In business schools this is addressed through the research category 'Management of Change'. 

In politics, why it's easier in France is a perennial topic.

Is there another link? I couldn't open that one.

Does your analysis consider GCRs and tail risks through this century?

Wonderful to see this, thank you!

I see synergies with longtermism, especially considering likely irreversibility of species loss, species which may some day be really important.

EIA (environmental investigations agency) have done excellent work on long term effect of HCFCs, among other things, with real world impact.

Great share thank you so much!

I think the problem you raise is important and real, but I'm not sure that a post or policy or even a project would solve it, not even with improved feedback from people who are starting to drift away (which would be valuable, and which I'd love to discuss elsewhere).  I think there may be a better approach, which is more likely to happen and more likely to succeed, since it will happen (and is already happening) anyway, as with most intellectual 'movements', especially those close to an emerging Zeitgeist or perennial topic.

Here's the rub:

Should EA b... (read more)

Thank you for doing this, very important and potentially it helps undo a mistake I made in my 20s: prioritising climate and neglecting biodiversity. (Sorry!) Can I clarify: is the topic biodiversity or mass extinction prevention? Both are valid, but strategies and timescales for both actions and outcomes could be very different.

I'd like to encourage both biodiversity protection and mass extinction prevention on grounds of:

A. Long-termism, life extension and ultimate value: 

• Climate will eventually be stabilized, but biodiversity, once lost, is gone for

Species themselves are not inherently valuable.

Doesn't this depend on assuming negative utilitarianism, and suffering-focused ethic, or a particular set of assumptions about the net pleasure vs pain in the life of an 'average' animal?

> The experiences of individual conscious animals are what's valuable

Are you saying it's the ONLY thing that has value, and that everyone who thinks otherwise is wrong? (For example, I imagine this doesn't hold in preference utilitarianism, and maybe not in longtermist thinking.)

> the welfare of wild animals is basically... (read more)

Michael hi and I'll try to read that. 

Just one major concern: in war and humanitarian work the INT framework may not be sufficient/ideal as in a war  you also have to factor in urgency and cascading consequences if logistics supply is not set up promptly, even before you have certainty ...

e.g. if chemical protection masks and suits don't arrive before a toxic 'accident',  many may die 

... so there is a premium on prompt action as part of Critical Pathway Planning, and fine adjustments/discussions can happen in parallel rather than in the slow deliberative way one might normally want to do.
 

How long can posts be edited for?

Are there any rules, worries or encouragements about comments?

 commenting, encouraging commenting on posts, inviting comments from experts from within EA community and outside experts, commenting on posts by colleagues, being kind to first-time posters etc?

maybe Reddit can work in a similar way?

I find the level hard work too, so I practice in Facebook groups :-) 

(I'm older than average EAs:  EA wasn't formally an available option when I was at college.)

Yes that would be better.

(But be careful of sunburn, especially in the tropics and at altitude!)

The decision may be between IR melatonin and ER 5-HTP which is a precursor:
www.foodstuffs.ca/scrapbookmain/2017/5/14/5-htp-vs-melatonin

"For some people, taking melatonin will help induce and maintain sleep. However, melatonin supplements usually only work if a person has low levels of melatonin in their system (this situation is commonly found in elderly persons). In other words, if you have normal levels of melatonin, taking melatonin supplements won't be as effective in helping you sleep.

That's where 5-HTP comes in. Since it works on serotonin as well (a... (read more)

More than you would think - a lot from kitchen, some from (newer) furniture, some faecal matter from mites, house dust which is largely human skin, cleaning chemicals, ozone, positive ions (the bad ones) from laptops especially Macbooks, mould spores, etc.
www.blf.org.uk/support-for-you/indoor-air-pollution/causes-and-effects
www.epa.gov/indoor-air-quality-iaq/introduction-indoor-air-quality 
but in may countries the original source of 'household' (indoor) air pollution is actually from outside the home:
www.conserve-energy-future.com/causes-and-effects-o... (read more)

The main effect is on training the subconscious to associate certain times of day and places with sleep, and other times/places with activity. 

Being outside daytime and keeping the bedroom area for nighttime use are both known to be helpful which is why they are part of CBT sleep hygiene. 

You're right that it's not linked to vitamin D, which is via the skin not the eye/pineal/melatonin circuit.

I find the ReTimer glasses much easier to use, £120 and portable for travelling.

Thanks for opening this topic. It's important to realise there are different kinds of sleep problem, so different people will need different solutions:

1. sleep onset 
   (which tends to be due to stimulation too late at night; CBT sleep hygiene works well for this, if done diligently, and limiting coffee etc)
2. early morning waking 
   (which tends to be due to stress-anxiety-depression or large amounts of alcohol)
3. low sleep quality 
   (which can be due to a range of things but alcohol and the wrong medication is a classic cause; Mirtazapine is popular, but h

Yes interested, have messaged.

Another good model is EIA (Environmental Investigations Agency) and their very targeted policy and action work on HCFCs, which led to the ozone-depleting gas emissions being discovered in China recently.

I think World Bank, UNDP, UNICEF, WFP and IMF have a strong incentive to help prevent future pandemics, and they have much more money to deploy than WHO.

CMU Prof  Loh is working on this and has a project: novid.org