I've made this market to help predict the likelihood:

https://manifold.markets/RobertCousineau/when-will-the-new-world-screwworm-b?r=Um9iZXJ0Q291c2luZWF1

Agreed - I do not mean to imply nuclear holocaust would not be horrible.

I do not think the FLI should cherry pick extraordinarily high numbers to make that case though, and them doing so/us sharing them doing so eats away at our epistemic commons.

I'd really rather not show that video to a well informed friend as they'd go "Wait, but I know that's wrong" and then discount other things I say about X-Risk.

I find it disappointing they reference nuclear winter without qualifying that it is quite unlikely given today's arsenals. I would reccomend against sharing it in it's current state.

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/pMsnCieusmYqGW26W/how-bad-would-nuclear-winter-caused-by-a-us-russia-nuclear

What have you found the EA community to be like in Tulsa?  I've grown partial to having EA/Rationality events in Seattle and somewhat concerned about losing out on those in Tulsa?