64Joined May 2018


Replicating and extending the grabby aliens model

I comment on this paper here:

Brain preservation to prevent involuntary death: a possible cause area

You didn't mention what I see as one of the biggest considerations: that current cryonics costs are dominated by fixed costs, because there are so few current customers. WIth a lot more customers the chance of success could also go way up.

Robin Hanson on the Long Reflection

You 'll also need to add increasing good outcomes, along with decreasing bad outcomes.

Robin Hanson on the Long Reflection

I don't have great confidence that the kinds of constraints that would be imposed on an age of em after a long reflection would actually improve that and further ages. 

Robin Hanson on the Long Reflection

I see an unconstrained Age of Em as better than an eternal long reflection. 

Robin Hanson on the Long Reflection

I have values, and The Age of Em overall contains a great deal that I value, and in fact probably more of what I value than does our world today. 

Robin Hanson on the Long Reflection

It is a matter of the cost and coordination that would be required to reverse. If you allow these to be large enough, it isn't clear than choices are ever irreversible, besides total extinction.

Against prediction markets

Political betting had a problem relative to perfection, not relative to the actual other alternatives used; it did better than them according to accuracy studies.

Yes there are overheads to using prediction markets, but those are mainly for having any system at all. Once you have a system, the overhead to adding a new question is much lower. Since you don't have EA prediction markets now, you face those initial costs.

For forecasting in most organizations, hiring top 30 super forecasters would go badly, as they don't know enough about that organization to be useful. Far better to have just a handful of participants from that organization.

Against prediction markets

Without some concrete estimate of how highly prediction markets are currently rated, its hard to say if they are over or under rated. They are almost never used, however, so it is hard to believe they are overused.

The office prediction markets you outline might well be useful. They aren't obviously bad.

I see huge potential for creating larger markets to estimate altruism effectiveness. We don't have any such at the moment, or even much effort to make them, so I find it hard to see that there's too much effort there.

For example, it would be great to create markets estimating advertised outcomes from proposed World Bank projects. That might well pressure the Bank into adopting projects more likely to achieve those outcomes.

Against prediction markets

You seem to be comparing prediction markets to perfection, not to the real mechanisms that we now use today instead. People proposing prediction markets are suggesting they'd work better than the status quo. They are usually not comparing them to something like GJP.

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