Want to alleviate developing world poverty? Alleviate price risk.​ (2018)

Lots of markets fail to clear for a long time until coordination problems are solved.

Don't Be Bycatch

I propose that March 26th (6 months equidistant from Petrov day) be converse Petrov day.

Why do so few EAs and Rationalists have children?

in the long run yes. But that's overly simplistic when considering humans because of all the things we might do to either memetically or technologically undermine evolutionary equilibria.

What quotes do you find most inspire you to use your resources (effectively) to help others?

And later iirc "maybe not needing to hear their screams is what being the comet king means."

Thoughts on whether we're living at the most influential time in history

In order for hingeyness to stay uniform robustness to x-risk would need to scale uniformly with power needed to cause x-risk.

Evidence, cluelessness, and the long term - Hilary Greaves

In the same way that an organism tries to extend the envelope of its homeostasis, an organization has a tendency to isolate itself from falsifiability in its core justifying claims. Beware those whose response to failure is to scale up.

Improving the future by influencing actors' benevolence, intelligence, and power

Thank you for the work put into this.

I can imagine a world in which the idea of a peace summit that doesn't involve leaders taking mdma together is seen as an 'are you even trying' type thing.

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