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You may be interested in this convo I had about research on pedagogical models. The tl;dw if you just want the interventions that have replicated with large effects sizes:

  1. Deliberate practice
  2.  Lots of low stakes quizzing
  3. Elaboration of context (deliberately structuring things to give students the chance to connect knowledge areas themselves)
  4. Teaching the material to others (forcing organization of the material in a way helpful to the one doing the teaching, and helping them identify holes in their own understanding)

Root out maximizers within yourself. Even 'doing the most good.' Maximizer processes are cancer, trying to convert the universe into copies of themselves. But this destroys anything that the maximizing was for.

Potentially of use in running a short workshop is the effectiveness of pedagogical techniques. From engaging with the literature on such, the highest quality systematic review I could find pointed to four techniques as showing robust effect size across many contexts and instantiations. They are

  1. Deliberate practice
  2. Cuing elaboration of context
  3. Regular low stakes quizzing
  4. Teaching the material to others

Lots of markets fail to clear for a long time until coordination problems are solved.

I propose that March 26th (6 months equidistant from Petrov day) be converse Petrov day.

in the long run yes. But that's overly simplistic when considering humans because of all the things we might do to either memetically or technologically undermine evolutionary equilibria.

And later iirc "maybe not needing to hear their screams is what being the comet king means."

In order for hingeyness to stay uniform robustness to x-risk would need to scale uniformly with power needed to cause x-risk.

In the same way that an organism tries to extend the envelope of its homeostasis, an organization has a tendency to isolate itself from falsifiability in its core justifying claims. Beware those whose response to failure is to scale up.

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