All of Ross_Tieman's Comments + Replies

I am a bit late to the party here but I agree that Australia is uniquely well positioned to have an impact on nuclear through increasing it's resilience and warrants its own case study. The Island state refuge concept was discussed at EAGx Australia as a potential moonshot project. On top of this major new industries relevant to food security in an Abrupt Sunlight Reduction Scenario such as Macroalgae (See seaweed blueprint  and Marine Bioproducts Cooperative Research Council) are being set up and scaling so there may be potential to influence the ind... (read more)

Thanks for making this, it looks great! Visualizations like this are great for explaining the importance of x-risk and GCR mitigation efforts, providing an intuitive way of understanding the associated probabilities. 

One recommendation would be to be to make the non-selected paths more transparent when 'survival' or 'extinction' is selected this would make the different cases more obvious. 

In terms of what other names might be. The image is round so words that come to mind when I viewed it where barometer or compass. I think both fit in terms of ... (read more)

That is a good point - upon reflection, risk of organizations being removed outweighs the potential benefit, thanks for looking into the terms and conditions.

No longer considered a good idea:

Why don't EA orgs just us this as an arbitrage opportunity?

Create a spread sheet and share it on the forum 
EA orgs can add themselves to the spreadsheet if they agree to donate 100 dollars to all other charities on the list at a time x. 

If 10 sign up they send $1,000 out and receive $2,000 back 

If 30 sign up they send out $3,000 and receive $6,000 back consuming $90,000 of the total match remaining.

At 4:57 pm GMT there is ~194 K left for matching 

This would also be an interesting case study in game theory, does  EA have what it takes?

In response to:

(1) Regarding:

Reasons that civilization might not recover include: ...

Are the reasons mentioned in this section what leads to the estimated reduction in far future potential in Table 1? Or are there other reasons that play into those estimates as well?

The reasons civilization might not recover discussed in the introduction are intended to provide evidence that recovery from civilization collapse is unlikely to occur, it is not an exhaustive list but provides some of the major arguments. The values obtained for table 1 on reduction in far fut... (read more)

Figures and tables are now visible. I am unsure why they stopped displaying, apologies for any inconvenience.