Wow, I'm surprised I've read 28.5 of the 31 most read books list (0.5 because I still haven't finished The Precipice). I had no idea I've read that high of a fraction of the most popular books, especially since I haven't read that many books (170 marked read on Goodreads).
You may very well already be aware of this (I didn't look at the post or comments too closely), but Elicit IDE has a "Search Metaforecast database" tool to search forecasts on several sites that may be helpful to your existential risk forecast database project. Here are the first 120 results for "existential risk."
You may very well already be aware of this (I didn't look at your linked post closely), but Elicit IDE has a "Search Metaforecast database" tool to search forecasts on several sites that may be helpful to your existential risk forecast database project. Here are the first 120 results for "existential risk."
Thought-provoking post, thanks for writing it up!
While you've sold me on the idea that new EA groups starting out should seriously consider a non-traditional group name, I'm skeptical that it would be a good idea for a bunch of existing EA groups to suddenly change their group names. My intuition is thay they should probably be reluctant to change their name and only do so if it seems pretty clear that doing so is worth it.
That said, it might be worth it for a small number of existing groups (that think a name change would be especially helpful for them) to change their name as an experiment for us all to learn from.
I in fact got at least one donation matched by Facebook on Giving Tuesday 2019. (And 2020.)
Any update on this?
I want to signal boost this as a highly cost-effective volunteer opportunity.
The entire process of reading up on what to do, figuring out how to create a video, creating it, and uploading it to the P4A website only took me about an hour last year, and I think doing this is worth a few hundred dollars to the charity in expectation (with diminishing returns after the charity you're creating a video for already has 10-15 videos).
Something it occurred to me it might be useful to tell others about that I haven't yet said anywhere:
The only donation I've really regretted making was one of the first significant donations I made: On May 23, 2017, I donated $3,181.00 to Against Malaria Foundation. It was my largest donation to date and my first donation after taking the GWWC pledge (in December 2016).
I primarily regretted and regret making this donation not because I later updated my view toward realizing/believing that I could have done more good by donating the money elsewhere (although that too is a genuine reason to feel regret about making a donation, and I have indeed since updated my view toward thinking other donation opportunities are better). Rather, I primarily regretted making the donation because six months after donating the money I learned that if I had saved that money and donated it instead on Giving Tuesday 2017, I could have gotten the money counter-factually matched by Facebook, thereby directing twice as much money toward the effective charity of my choice and doing almost twice as much good. (I say 'almost' as much good because I think a smaller but nontrivial amount of good would have been done by Facebook's money had it gone to other nonprofits instead). (I in fact donated $4,000 on Giving Tuesday 2017 and got it all matched. I got all my donations matched in 2018 and 2019 too, and probably most of my donations in 2020, though matches have yet to be announced by Facebook. Other mistakes around this will go in a separate comment sometime.)
Reflecting on this more: Since I think marginal donations to some organizations do more than twice as much good as donations to other organizations (including AMF) in expectation, there is a sense in which missing a counterfactual matching opportunity was not as significant of a mistake as giving to the wrong giving opportunity / cause area. Yet on the other hand, regardless of what giving opportunity my 2017 self or current self might think is best, it's pretty clear that my mistake is one that cut the impact I could definitely have had with the money almost in half. That is no small error, hence my clear feeling of regret, and my frequent mention of the post EAs Should Invest All Year, then Give only on Giving Tuesday.
This seems useful. I'm curious if CEA would consider having this contractor also do something to improve what's happening over at the EA subreddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/EffectiveAltruism/
I've looked at a few threads on the subreddit over there the last few weeks and unfortunately it seems to me like the quality of much of the discourse there is significantly worse on average than I've seen in any EA Facebook group. It doesn't seem like a great way for new people to hear about EA for the first time. I'm not sure what should be done to improve the situation.
Maybe an 80/20 to improve it would be to write some new high quality intro / overview posts and pin them to the top indefinitely? Maybe have a copy of the EA Forum Digest pinned to the top until the next one comes out, with an archive of past digests saved there? Having the date of the digest in the title might get more people who go to the subreddit to click on it.
It is "capped at $300 per tax return whether you’re single or married filing jointly."
Married filing separately is capped at $150 per tax return (citing the same link).