WilliamKiely

Co-Organizer @ Effective Altruism Austin
1857Austin, TX, USAJoined Nov 2014

Bio

Participation
4

Co-Organizer @ Effective Altruism Austin

You can send me a message anonymously here: https://www.admonymous.co/will

Comments
314

I have some difficulty in understanding Will's accent (as an American who grew up in the northeast--New Hampshire), though notably less difficulty than plenty of Americans who aren't as articulate. Specfically, I listened to WWOTF at 2x speed and I struggled to hear everything. I know I can easily comprehend other voices at the same wpm, but with Will I was missing occasional words and it took until the second half of the book before I felt I was really hearing everything. I wished they had gone with a professional narrator for selfish reasons, though I understood the motivation behind Will narrating it himself. (At 1x speed I have the same issues with Will's voice, except my brain has more time to process and figure out what word he said based on context, so it's not an issue.).

Any information I have is multiple years outdated, but her about page says "Many thanks to EA Grants, the EA Meta Fund, and the Long-Term Future Fund for supporting EA Coaching" so I assume she at least still offers some heavily discounted coaching to at least some EAs. Probably worth it for whoever is taking on the job of trying to make the list somewhat complete to reach out.

I also just came across this. Will DM the author to reply here.

Under coaching there is also https://www.trainingforgood.com/coaching and https://lynettebye.com/services.

The list in the article seems like it's probably very incomplete. I'm not aware of other similar lists others have made, but they may exist.

[Holden won the bet](https://thezvi.substack.com/i/66658630/i-lose-a-bet). In retrospect, I think I was justified in having high confidence and right that Zvi's bet was foreseeably bad. If anything, when I lowered my forecast from 95% to 68% for a couple weeks in April I was meta-updating too much on the community median and assigning too much weight to the possibility of an extremely large "cases to true infections" adjustment.

Note that I disagree with what Zvi wrote yesterday: "In hindsight, the question of ‘what counts as Omicron’ does have a strong bearing on who had the right side of this wager, and also is a key insight into the mistake that I made here."

I disagree that that was his mistake. Even if subvariants counted as different variants that would only increase the chance that the bet resolves ambiguously. There was (IMO) never a >70% chance (or even >50%) chance that Zvi would win (conditional on someone winning), even if the language of the bet considered subvariants to be different variant.

Terrific, I'm excited to see how things turn out!

And FWIW I think a lot of the essay would work well paired with an animation, such as the discussion of scope insensitivity, the story of Daniel the college student with the birds, and the mountains of problems everywhere later on.

I suggest On Caring by Nates Soares. It is ~2880 words, so slightly long, but many people have strongly recommended it over the years (myself included), such as jackva:

For me, and I have heard this from many other people in EA, this has been a deeply  touching essay and is among the best short statements of the core of EA.

I'm really happy to see this contest and hope it will produce high quality scripts!

I've watched all the longtermism-relevant videos on your channel and thought they were very well done overall. To be more specific, I thought the video you released promoting WWOTF was significantly better than Kurzgesagt's video promoting WWOTF and I was disappointed Kurzgesagt hadn't used a script like yours (given their very large audience).

While I'm sure you've already thought of this, I want to highlight one concern I have about the contest, namely that your $5,000 prize may provide a much smaller incentive than a prize 2-3 times as large:

Given you're hiring a team of 9 animators to work on the next video, I'd guess that $5,000 is not a large fraction of the budget (though I could be mistaken). And in my opinion, the script matters more than the animation (e.g. see my claim that your WWOTF video was better than Kurzgesagt's despite them presumably having a much larger / more expensive animation team). So I'd question the decision to spend a lot more on animators than the script (if you are in fact doing that).

Additionally, contest participants know they are not guaranteed to win the top prize. To asses the expected hourly earnings from entering the contest they need to discount the prize by the probability that they win. All things considered I'm not sure that many people who could write great scripts for you would be justified in believing they'd earn a reasonable wage in expectation by participating in the contest.

Anyway, I'm sure you picked the $5,000 amount carefully and that you've already thought of the relative value of higher prize amounts, but just wanted to provide this quick feedback in case it's helpful.

The second related point of feedback is that committing to "0-4" prizes means that someone might think "even if I write the best script, they still might not choose me and I might not win any money" leading people to discount their expected earnings even more. Perhaps commit to offering some prize for the best script regardless of whether you create a video out of it?

Do the ranges 3-91.5% and 45-99.5% include or exclude the highest and lowest forecasts?

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