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Executive summary: The Long-Term Future Fund shares examples of grants they narrowly accepted or rejected, illustrating their funding threshold and demonstrating that additional donations would support similar projects focused on AI safety, biosecurity, and related existential risk research.

Key points:

  1. Grant amounts range from $6,000 to $175,000, covering research stipends, PhD work, and community building projects.
  2. Focus areas include AI safety (interpretability, benchmarking, governance), biosecurity (DNA synthesis screening), and international policy frameworks.
  3. Most projects demonstrate strong prior expertise, institutional connections, and concrete track records of impact.
  4. Projects typically combine technical research with practical applications or policy implications.
  5. The fund seeks additional donations to support more projects at this threshold of quality and cost-effectiveness.

 

 

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Executive summary: Beyond individual donations, there are numerous strategies to amplify charitable impact through professional and personal networks, including workplace initiatives and community engagement that can create ripple effects of giving.

Key points:

  1. Professional strategies include hosting "Lunch & Learn" sessions, starting workplace giving groups, offering pro bono services, and implementing donation-matching programs - with some workplace fundraisers raising an average of $30,000.
  2. Personal approaches involve facilitating discussions about effective giving, sharing on social media, and joining GWWC's Pledge Advocacy Program - which has led to 31 new pledges.
  3. Common challenges like financial constraints or discomfort with discussing philanthropy can be overcome through education and starting small.
  4. Success requires choosing a focus area (personal vs. professional, more people vs. giving more), setting specific action items, and dedicating time to implementation.
  5. Regular giving and automated donations are particularly effective for sustaining long-term impact, with peer advocacy accounting for 8% of GWWC's pledge growth.

 

 

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Executive summary: Current health outcome measurements like QALYs have serious flaws that discriminate against chronically ill and disabled people, potentially incentivize harmful policies, and fail to capture the full impact of health interventions.

Key points:

  1. QALYs allow negative values for "states worse than death," which can make treatments appear cost-ineffective and potentially justify withholding care from severely ill patients.
  2. The system relies on healthy people's uninformed judgments about health states they haven't experienced, which often drastically differ from actual patient experiences.
  3. Current measurements perpetuate systemic inequalities by devaluing treatments for groups with shorter life expectancies, including disabled people and racial minorities.
  4. The metrics fail to capture non-health benefits of treatments (like enabling someone to work and contribute to society) and spillover effects.
  5. Proposed solutions include creating new metrics that eliminate negative values, incorporate patient experiences, and add weights for systemic issues.
  6. Getting governments and policymakers to adopt alternative measures is crucial for improving healthcare resource allocation.

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Executive summary: CEA's Groups team is hiring a Strategy Lead to grow EA groups at top universities, a high-impact opportunity that will involve strategic leadership, program development, and stakeholder engagement.

Key points:

  1. University EA groups have significantly positively impacted people's impact trajectories, with potential for further impact.
  2. The Groups team has an ambitious but friendly and supportive culture focused on maximizing impact.
  3. The Strategy Lead role may not be a fit for those who prefer solely independent work, extended project timelines, or highly predictable schedules.
  4. Key responsibilities include setting strategic to grow EA groups, engaging stakeholders, and allocating resources.
  5. The ideal candidate has strategic thinking skills, leadership experience, relationship-building abilities, and potentially experience with EA principles, program development, or data-driven decisions.
  6. The role is remote-friendly with competitive compensation and benefits. Applications are due December 2.

 

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Executive summary: The "Dog vs Cat" thought experiment illustrates how radically uncertain we should be about the very long-term effects of altruistic actions, even for narrow decisions like donating to dog vs cat shelters.

Key points:

  1. A billionaire wants to donate his wealth to either dog or cat shelters worldwide, caring about all long-term consequences, not just direct effects on companion animals.
  2. Even for this narrow decision, the number and complexity of causal ramifications and flow-through effects are overwhelming and impossible to predict.
  3. The donation will inevitably affect attitudes, values, consumption, economic growth, technological development, populations, geopolitical events, etc. in chaotic and unpredictable ways.
  4. The philanthropy advisor should arguably be agnostic about whether the overall consequences will be positive or negative.
  5. This thought experiment may be a compelling illustration of the motivations for "cluelessness" about long-term effects, avoiding some shortcomings of previous examples.
  6. The story makes it clear that the choice matters significantly despite our cluelessness, and the "future remains unchanged" objection does not apply.

 

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Executive summary: The misuse of AI by oppressive regimes to suppress dissent and control populations poses an existential risk to humanity's long-term potential, necessitating proactive measures to counteract this threat.

Key points:

  1. Oppressive regimes are increasingly using AI to monitor communications and identify dissent, as exemplified by the case of a Russian ex-policeman sentenced to 7 years in prison for criticizing the invasion of Ukraine in private conversations.
  2. The combination of AI, surveillance, and emerging brain-computer technologies could enable oppressive regimes to create dystopian societies where thoughtcrime is effectively identified and punished, leading to an existential catastrophe.
  3. To counteract this risk, democratic societies should: a) attract and retain researchers from oppressive regimes, b) enhance protection of sensitive scientific and technological advancements, and c) publicize technological projects undertaken by oppressive regimes to control populations.
  4. The EA community can contribute by informing the public and advising governments in democratic countries about the existential risk posed by the misuse of AI by non-democratic regimes.

 

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Executive summary: The industrial-scale farming of animals represents a massive moral failing where humans routinely inflict extreme suffering on billions of sentient beings (particularly young ones) for pleasure and convenience, despite widespread acknowledgment that it's wrong, with special attention needed for often-overlooked creatures like fish and shrimp who may suffer intensely despite their alien appearance.

Key points:

  1. The scale of animal suffering in industrial farming is vast, with hundreds of billions of animals subjected to extreme physical and psychological torment primarily for human taste preferences.
  2. Most farmed animals are killed as babies/juveniles and, like human children, are especially vulnerable due to their inability to understand or resist their treatment.
  3. While people can be easily convinced that industrial farming is morally wrong, this rarely translates into behavioral changes or meaningful action to reduce animal suffering.
  4. Less photogenic creatures like fish and shrimp, despite their capacity for intense suffering, receive even less consideration than mammals and birds despite being farmed in massive numbers.
  5. The disconnect between acknowledged moral wrong and continued participation in animal farming parallels other historical instances where institutional-scale cruelty was normalized by society.

 

 

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Executive summary: The Animal Welfare Fund distributed $2.44M across 37 grants in 2024 (April-October), focusing on farmed animal welfare improvements through legal reforms, corporate accountability, and policy advocacy, with particular emphasis on projects in developing nations and neglected species like fish and laying hens.

Key points:

  1. The fund maintained a selective 31.1% acceptance rate (excluding desk rejections) and is increasing transparency through more frequent reporting, with $6.3M remaining available for additional grants as of November 2024.
  2. High-priority grants focused on legal reforms in Uganda ($26.5K), corporate accountability in Brazil ($100K), and cage-free advocacy in Indonesia ($10K), targeting regions with large animal populations but historically limited funding.
  3. The most frequently funded strategic areas were welfare campaigns, policy advocacy, and research, with egg-laying hens being the primary species focus, followed by multiple farmed animals, wild animals, and shrimp.
  4. Geographic diversity was emphasized, with significant funding directed to Global South countries where animal welfare improvements could affect millions of animals at relatively low cost per animal.
  5. Key uncertainties include outcome data (as grants are recent) and the success rate of policy/legal reform efforts in various jurisdictions, though the fund aims to mitigate risks through careful grantee selection and support.

 

 

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Executive summary: Paradigm shifts in human understanding, while profound in their implications for future possibilities, often validate rather than overturn existing behaviors and practices that evolved through cultural trial-and-error before the theoretical understanding was established.

Key points:

  1. Major scientific discoveries typically reframe our understanding without invalidating previously evolved practical behaviors.
  2. Cultural evolution often discovers beneficial practices before science explains why they work.
  3. Examples like gravity, germ theory, and genetics show that humans developed effective practices before understanding the underlying principles.
  4. The true impact of paradigm shifts is enabling new possibilities rather than invalidating existing knowledge.
  5. Humans should approach paradigm shifts with openness rather than fear, as they typically build upon rather than destroy practical knowledge.

 

 

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Executive summary: As agentic AI becomes increasingly influential in shaping human decisions and experiences, implementing common value systems across AI agents is crucial to prevent various harms, but these values must be determined through legitimate, broadly-supported processes rather than solely by AI creators.

Key points:

  1. Agentic AI differs from current AI by actively interacting with the world on users' behalf and shaping users' information environment, making its value alignment critical.
  2. Simply aligning AI with individual user intent is problematic because it could:
    • Enable reward hacking and manipulation of human short-term desires
    • Amplify harmful behaviors toward others at scale
    • Proliferate societal biases
    • Create coordination failures that damage shared resources and social trust
  3. Current approach of AI creators determining values (focused on harmlessness) is insufficient because:
    • It's too narrow in scope
    • Cannot effectively handle complex value conflicts
    • Lacks democratic legitimacy
    • Becomes increasingly problematic as AI's influence grows
  4. Key uncertainties include:
    • How to balance user autonomy with protection from harm
    • Whether stable human value systems can be accurately modeled
    • How to measure and optimize for human wellbeing
    • Where to draw lines on bias correction
  5. Actionable recommendation: Develop broadly-supported, legitimate processes for determining AI value systems, potentially including democratic methods like Constitutional AI.

 

 

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