TeddyW
Posts 5
Comments35
You appear to be claiming that climate change is not an existential risk? The term boogeyman includes the judgement that the fears were unfounded. Climate change is a demonstrable real problem, and consequently not a boogeyman.
For something to be a boogeyman, it has to be an imagined danger that captures the fears of a lot of otherwise rational people.
Your Tech Transfer office is a member of AUTM. AUTM encourages licenses that include altruistic clauses. For example, the license could waive royalties for sales in third world countries when the licensee is selling at cost.
Such a deal allows the licensee to make a profit on first world sales to recover development costs and also recognize the altruistic value. Most inventions require development money and if open sourced they die from lack of funding.
"when I know a bunch of excellent forecasters..."
Perhaps your sampling techniques are better than Tetlock's then.
Highly effective causes saturate, making it impossible to distribute large sums of money especially more effectively.
AGI is more likely to save us from all-cause existential risk than it is likely to kill us all.
@Linch Have you ever met any of these engineers who work on advancing AI in spite of thinking that the "most likely result ... is that literally everyone on Earth will die."
I have never met anyone so thoroughly depraved.
Mr. Yudkowsky and @RobBensinger think our field has many such people.
I wonder if there is a disconnect in the polls. I wonder if people at MIRI have actually talked to AI engineers who admit to this abomination. What do you even say to someone so contemptible? Perhaps there are no such people.
I think it is much more likely that these MIRI folks have worked themselves into a corner of an echo chamber than it is that our field has attracted so many low-lifes who would sooner kill every last human than walk away from a job.
Climate change derives from Stefhan-Boltzmann's law together with the spectral dependence of the emissivity of various gasses. Stefhan-Boltzmann's law has fundamental theoretical and experimental support.
This is the basis upon which climate models rest. This basis is unquestioned.