All of toron's Comments + Replies

A tardy reply. But I presume there could be some evidence? If you try to think of any, can you? If not how could anyone have much confidence in this whatsoever?

1
Paul_Christiano
9y
I don't quite understand what you are asking for here / what you are potentially disagreeing with. What kind of evidence do you expect? The average stock has the same returns as the index, that's the definition of the index (for some notion of average and some universe of stocks). If you are a good enough predictor, then from your perspective some stocks might have predictably low returns. And in that case you can trivially beat the market. There is a huge amount of evidence that when there is bad news about an asset's expected future returns, the price of that asset generally drops, raising the expected future returns. But I assume that's not what you are wondering about.

LW and SSC do this without issue

I've taken those surveys for years, and it's true that they've often contained questions that would get this (EA) community's jimmies severely rustled, without any problems or complaints or concern trolling. At least, that's my impression, as someone more familiar with the rationalist community than the EA one.

It looks like there's a Christians and EA Facebook group, though only Christians can join. But someone could join it, ask there, and report back?

Plausibly, are any methods promising for us?

0
mhpage
9y
I know next to nothing about their methods other than that (i) they've been developing them for a long time and (ii) they seem to be effective. The singular importance of recruitment is an unusual quality for a social movement, but it's one we both have in common.

Yes indeed! Who is that team? Am I right in thinking it's Ryan Carey who owns the site?

1
RyanCarey
10y
Thanks Ben! Hi Toron, Mihai Badic designed the site, giving away some of his time for free, and Trike Apps built the site from the LessWrong codebase entirely for free. I've done what's left of managing the overall project, and am administrating :) I hope you continue to enjoy it, Toron.

Yes, they make for very interesting browsing!

Interesting - is there empirical evidence that this in fact happens?

2
Paul_Christiano
10y
What would that look like? Ex post the returns of different stocks are very different. Ex ante, if you think some stock is going to have low returns, sell it short.

if you accept the EMH the returns are the same.

How come?

0
Paul_Christiano
10y
If the returns were worse, the price would drop.

I assume its not something you'd want to devote much of a sum that large to, but small sums could support EA actions and projects via the EA funding network that Ozzie Gooen and Diego Caleiro and Bob Cordwell have started.

This is a great idea, I heard that the dollar-per-dollar match offered in the Charity Science walk caused a big increase in the amount which people donated.