0Joined Jul 2020


Sorry, I'm confused. Do you mean the misconception is that rather than "30%" we should be saying that GJP was  "34.7%" better than the ICPM? 

Can someone clarify these statements from Summary (3a)? They seem to be at odds....

A: "A common misconception is that superforecasters outperformed intelligence analysts by 30%."

B: "Instead: Goldstein et al showed that superforecasters outperformed the intelligence community..."[then a table listing the ICPM  MMDB as 0.23 versus the GJP Best MMDB as 0.15]. 

--> Wouldn't that be 34% better?