All of Ula's Comments + Replies

AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

Have you read this article James: I think it's really good at comparing Open Philanthropy report with GFI report.  I highly recommend reading it. 

1JamesOz3dThanks Ula, I hadn't read that and it has been super insightful. Seems like I'm back to being much more pessimistic about the scale up of cultivated meat now...
Canva CEO commits at least $6 billion “to do the most good”

I use Canva Pro every day because it's totally free for registered nonprofits, so this is really cool news :) 

I Created Free Content Training for Nonprofit Orgs

This sounds amazing! Thank you for sharing your experience. I emailed you with a request.

1LindaMartin2moThanks, Ula...I just gave you access. Please let me know if you don't receive it. I hope you get a lot out of the resources!
Launching a new resource: 'Effective Altruism: An Introduction'

Since I come from the EAA side of effective altruism I feel like Lewis Bollard's podcast is really missing here. I would dearly appreciate it,  if when you use the term "Effective Altruism: An Introduction" there was EAA representation included in the introductory materials, especially that in the countries like Poland (where I am from) EA-mind folks are mostly coming from the animal movement and are drawn to EA because of effective animal advocacy. 
Or maybe just worth re-naming to: 80,000 Hours Introduction to Effective Altruism?

Why start a family planning charity? (Founders needed)

Hi Rafael,

Thanks for your thoughtful response – it’s great to hear your impressions on our research!

"Do you know of other organizations that follow this approach, given your point that this is one of the few times a woman will come in contact with the health system?"

The expert view section of our report (p. 16) has the most information about other actors in the space. Key points:

  • Several groups (e.g. FP2020, FHI360, USAID, IntraHealth) are working on PPFP due to the strong evidence of its effectiveness, but only a few specialize in it – most work on PP
... (read more)
3MichaelStJules6moSee under the section Decreased Consumption of Animal Products here: [] They report number of veg meals and program costs, but don't estimate what this comes out to for animals or divide animals spared by costs to get a cost-effectiveness ratio.
How we averted 130,000 animal deaths (in expectation) with a volunteer campaign.

Hey James, 
I don't know how it is now, but I worked at ProVeg Poland (so a country chapter like ProVeg UK) like 3 years ago and we worked on everything extremely slowly so i.e. a person that will be working on a campaign would have to ask the graphic people to design the graphics, then they would have to consult with the country manager, the manager would have a meeting with other country managers, these country managers were managed by a person from the leadership and the leadership would have their own meetings. On top of that, there was one interna... (read more)

How we averted 130,000 animal deaths (in expectation) with a volunteer campaign.

Hi James, 

I can't spend too much time on this right now but at a first glance I can potentially see two major problems: 

1) Problem with collecting the data  that should show the effect

2) Problem with calculating the costs

With the 1) to count the animals spared by 1 plant-based day you would have to check stuff like:

  • what kind of meal was replaced (beef/ chicken/ fish, so e.g. beef will mean fewer animals spared, because people eat a smaller portion of the animal, fish will mean more animals spared);
  • was the supply chain affected (so e.g. maybe
... (read more)
6JamesOz6moHi Ula, Thanks for your comment! You're right in that there's definitely much more complexity that I laid out in my post and model. Some things you've mentioned I've already accounted for so I'll answer those below: * What kind of meal was replaced: I definitely agree that the number animals spared depends hugely on the meal that was replaced on any given day. This is what I meant when I said in my "improvements that could be made section" with: Although it hindsight, it's not very clear exactly what I meant so I'll clarify that in the post a bit more. There's no obvious way for me to tell if most school serve cows, chickens or fish on any given day (as they might implement their vegetarian days on different days too) so I couldn't make a reasonable assumption that it would be any certain animal affected most. Due to that, I went with the average value of animal deaths averted using this post by ACE [Better estimates for the average number of animals eaten per meal and per school meal.]. Obviously fish and other marine animals make up the most of those deaths so if we found out that the fish day was the least likely to be affected, it would bring down the number of animal deaths averted. This might be something we update once it's implemented and we have a good idea of what meals were commonly swapped out. * Was the supply chain affected: This is similar to what Abraham was saying below too. To copy that reply: As we've been asking for this commitment on the basis on helping councils meet their climate targets and lower their catering costs, not actually purchasing less meat would be shooting themselves in the foot! Although I could definitely see some variation of this happening (e.g. purchasing 10% less vs 20% less). I'll mention it to ProVeg in our meeting this week and will see if they've had similar issues in the past or if they've considered this. My initial guess is that ProVeg have already considered this as they've
8MichaelStJules6moHere's some relevant research and writing I've come across, but they don't seem to estimate effects on meals at home: 1. Forced Choice Restriction in Promoting Sustainable Food Consumption: Intended and Unintended Effects of the Mandatory Vegetarian Day in Helsinki Schools [] 1. More skipped meals (when allowed, depending on the school level), plate waste and eating less on vegetarian days in the short term (and pretty significant effects, like 18%-40% for each), while in the medium term, only eating less on veg days and skipping meals but also students eating more vegetarian meals on other days. It seems reasonably likely these students would eat more meat at home on average to compensate, but I don't think this would cut the cost-effectiveness down by more than half. 2. Nutritional quality and acceptability of a weekly vegetarian lunch in primary-school canteens in Ghent, Belgium: 'Thursday Veggie Day' | Public Health Nutrition | Cambridge Core [] 1. Differences in plate waste were small enough to ignore. 3. Meat Reduction by Force: The Case of “Meatless Monday” in the Norwegian Armed Forces [] 4. Vox: A French city announced it would serve meatless school lunches. The backlash was swift. [] I would assume they don't fully compensate on average and they would do so less in the long run, but I don't know how much they do (or whether some eat even fewer animal products at home), and this is something worth looking
Open and Welcome Thread: March 2021

Hey  Rwoehrle, 
Thanks for sharing! I think it's always good to take a very pragmatic approach towards donating. As long as you have a debt to pay, it seems like it's worth putting money into that, and building a safety net for yourself first (a bit like putting an oxygen mask on yourself before you gonna get one on your child). When it comes to volunteering for animal groups, I'd recommend ACE top charities, or charities that are founded by Open Philanthropy or Animal Welfare Found, they should be kind of safe bets. Personally, I like The Humane ... (read more)

AMA: Tom Chivers, science writer, science editor at UnHerd

How one should go about learning how to write high-quality material? And what is the way to get it published?

2Tom Chivers6moI wish I had a better answer to the first one than "become good at writing". My own pathway was reading loads and loads, and writing loads and loads, and then essentially mimicking the writing that I liked (mainly Pratchett tbh) until eventually I noticed that I'd stopped doing that and had a recognisable style of my own. I sometimes go through my old emails from before I was a journalist and see I've just written needlessly long show-offy emails to friends, which I cringe about a bit now, but they were clearly practice for when I had to do it for real. Actually, also, I did philosophy at uni and MA, and I found that the way I learnt to structure an argument in those essays has been really helpful. Oh and this might sound silly but become good at typing. If you can type as fast as you think then when the ideas are flowing quickly then they just sort of appear on the page. I used to work as a medical secretary for a long time and I swear that helped me an awful lot, not least in transcribing interviews but also just in being able to get ideas down quickly. As for getting it published: pitch! Ideally start by developing a relationship with some editor somewhere. It might be a good idea to blog as well, so that you can point people to stuff you've written.
AMA: Tom Chivers, science writer, science editor at UnHerd

Approaching journalists:

  1. How can we reach them?
  2. What is the best way to pitch an idea to a journalist?
  3. Do press releases still work? (Is it worth sending them to the contact emails, since it's hard often to get direct contact)
  4. Maybe Twitter is a good idea?
4Tom Chivers6mo1. For me, at least, Twitter is the way to get hold of me - my DMs are open, and most journalists' are. But emails are good too and most journalists will make them publicly available. 2. Send us an email or a DM! But first make sure that the journalist in question is interested in the sort of thing you're pitching. I keep marking PR emails as spam, because they're obviously just auto-sending to some list, and I don't give a toss if some tech company is having a roundtable meeting about some acquisition or whatever. If, however, I get a personalised email from someone who obviously knows my work and has thought that whatever they're emailing might actually be of interest, I'll always at least reply, even if I don't use the info in a piece. 3. Yes, but don't spam them out - see 2. Get the journalist's attention and ask if he or she would be interested. (Although: it's just occurred to me that this is like the breeding habits of elephants vs the breeding habits of frogs. Either spend years raising the baby and getting high rates of survival but low rates of actual birth, or fire out tens of thousands of eggs and fertilise them all at once and hope that one or two survive. Maybe the latter works and I am giving you a survivorship bias-tainted account because I, obviously, ignore the large majority of them, as they expect.) 4. Indeed it is: see 1.
AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

Would love to see an answer to this. The report is pessimistic, but it's unclear if it's never or 50 years. I hope Lewis will get back to this question!

AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

Dear Lewis, thank you very much for your answer. If I may add one small thing: I think we should not only focus on diversity and sexual harassment, because mobbing can lead to PTSD, anxiety, depression, or struggling with self-worth. These can further affect people's lives on many levels (from work to relationships). I think that unfortunately, we don't put enough attention to the work environment and high rotations in the charities. There is room for improvement there for sure. I dearly appreciate Open Phils attitude towards this though! You are giving a great example by treating employees seriously and investigating! Thank you!

3LewisBollard7moThanks Ula. Yes that's an important point that these issues go beyond diversity and sexual harassment. I completely agree on the need to emphasize good management and treating employees well across the board -- both because it's the right way to treat everyone and because employees / talent are our movement's most valuable resource and one we risk squandering.
AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

Hey Charles, I don't think this is a good place to turn this into a larger discussion. Unless the AMA author would like this to be the case.

1Charles He7moSince my comment yesterday at 10:14 AM PST, there have been changes to your top level comment. For example, your question, asking about a safe, global space with three specific goals, did not exist, and you have added a caveat saying that you do not know if these issues are widespread or common. Other comments have appeared, such as from Daniela Waldhorn, who has described appalling abuse and who has designated current management for illegal and discriminatory practices. I think my comment was reasonable because it was hard to understand what if any changes could be effected in response to your comment, or frankly, what the underlying situation was/is. Despite your caveat, based on the comments, this abuse seems appalling and widespread. This appears to be a public issue that affects everyone in this space. I think, based on some of the things you said about a lack of discussion or engagement related to respected or powerful people, engaging with certain comments here might support the objectives that you may be aiming for. Also, unfamiliarity with your or Daniela's experiences does not mean personal unfamiliarity with similar experiences outside the space of animal welfare.
AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

This is such a sad thing to learn :(

AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

Hey Daniela, I've been an animal activist for 20 years now and I had seen so many people suffer mobbing or hostile work environment. People suffering severe burnout, mostly due to poor leadership. The sad thing is, they are too afraid to say anything because some of the leaders and organizations are big and well respected. I don't really know how to help them, but I believe they don't deserve the anxiety, self-doubt, low self-esteem, depression, and all the other repercussions. Just don't really know what to do about it, but what worries me is that there is no follow-up. Like ACE is pointing out things and you can see no official response from the orgs. So is anything changing, or is it swept under the rug? What can we do?

Hi Ula! I agree with you. I myself stopped working directly as an animal advocate after being mobbed, harassed, and listening to regular discriminatory comments for being a woman, an immigrant, and because of my origin. I've seen so many activists going through the same.

In my case, the continued support of other advocates, especially of the Encompass community (, has been invaluable. I highly recommend it.

Second, I also believe that it's time to stop normalizing activists' mistreatment and discriminatory practices, especially in o... (read more)

AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

If we focus on cost-effectiveness, what would be the most effective top 3 interventions for animals at the moment?

4LewisBollard7moThis is a tough one. I'm most confident in the cost-effectiveness of corporate campaigns, especially on cage-free and broiler welfare, because there's a tight feedback loop and easily measurable results. But I think a number of more speculative longer-term interventions could plausibly turn out to be more cost-effective -- they're just higher variance. Some candidates for plausibly most cost-effective longer-term interventions: * Any scaleable intervention for improving fish welfare, especially of the most numerous farmed species (e.g. common carp) and wild-caught fish (at capture and slaughter). * Any tractable work in the countries with the largest number of farmed animals (the top 3 are China, India Indonesia, and the rest are here [] ) * Any work that enables a breakthrough on the taste and price of alternative proteins that directly compete with fish, crustaceans, chicken, or eggs.
AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

What is the most effective intervention for fish? Is anyone working on it? How many organizations are working on change for fish right now? What do we expect to achieve for fish in the next 2-3 years?

6LewisBollard7moI'm not sure what the most effective intervention for fish is -- I think it's mostly too early to say. But here's a non-exhaustive list of some promising approaches, with an example of one group working on each: * UK corporate and policy reforms: Compassion in World Farming * European corporate reform: Albert Schweitzer Foundation * European legislative reform: Eurogroup for Animals * Undercover investigations: Essere Animali * Working with producers: Fish Welfare Initiative * Engaging certifiers: Aquatic Animal Alliance * Researching higher welfare methods: Humane Slaughter Association I'm optimistic that in the next 2-3 years we can see some more corporate fish welfare policies and a number of new fish welfare standards from fish farming sustainability certifiers. I'm also hopeful that we'll see the first steps toward EU policy reform, though binding regulations will likely take longer.
AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

What are the key challenges in alternative proteins production that we need to overcome to meet the meat :) price point?

1LewisBollard7moI recommend the comments of alt_protein_vc above and my newsletter here [].
AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

What criteria do you use while deciding which charities are gonna be given funding from EA AWF?

3LewisBollard7moI'm only one of four fund managers, and I'm only describing my personal approach. For me scale and neglect typically operate as an initial threshold -- I'm not excited about something that could never affect >1M animals or that is already fully-funded or likely to be. But most submissions for the Fund pass this threshold, so estimates of potential tractability / cost-effectiveness become most important. To assess this, I especially consider: * The track record of this intervention: has it been tried before; if so how did it go; are there reasons to think this group will do better/worse than previous efforts? * The track record of the applicant: have they already achieved wins; if yes, how scaleable do those wins seem; if no, are there reasons to think they could in future? * The plans: how plausible do the plans seem; will we know if they succeed or fail; how big a win would it be if the plans succeed?
AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

Question: In the past 2-3 years, we have heard troubling news about how employees in the animal movement are treated. Are there any plans of creating a safe, global space for employees, where they could:

  1. Safely complain about their situation.
  2. Seek psychological and legal support.
  3. Could safely share their stories.

Problem: I have two examples in mind:

  1. On 17th April 2020 Anima International shared a post on Facebook where they explain their reasoning for firing their CEO: "However, no matter how
... (read more)

Thanks for drawing attention to this important issue Ula. I’m very sorry to read of the experiences you and others have shared, which I’ll address here and in separate replies to Daniela and Eze’s posts below. 

I completely agree the animal movement needs to do better to ensure it’s a safe place for all its employees and volunteers. We’re supporting a number of groups and individuals working to create a more inclusive and supportive global movement. For instance, we’re major funders of Encompass, ACE, and Animal Advocacy Careers, as well as a number of... (read more)

7Charles He7moHi Ula, Can you describe the problems more specifically and consider the thoughts below? I think abuse or exploiting someone’s gender, race, or outright sexual misconduct is an abomination. But what about the perspective that “bad work environments” are a separate, distinct issue from this kind of abuse? Work environments in any organization can become terrible and this comes from mismanagement or predatory management. Unfortunately, these issues might be systemic at all nonprofit organizations because management ability and resources are low, and the “business model” is very performative and this can reduce intellectual honesty. Also a key resource is a stream of both passionate and pliable volunteers, who are both difficult to manage and less able to resist abuse. If this perspective is correct, it could be difficult to solve because these are root causes. For example, even if you could richly fund and staff a few organizations with great difficulty, you cannot police all organizations that would pop up. I think my thought in my comment is basic and I may lack knowledge of the specific events. What do you think about what I said?

Thanks for pointing this out, Ula. I'm aware that several activists in other organizations have also suffered similar situations, along with derogatory comments because of their origin and gender.

In my experience this problem is unfortunately wide and common in so many organizations :(

AMA: Lewis Bollard, Open Philanthropy

This is a super important question, I'd love this to be addressed since it also seems to me this is very pessimistic and extremely important. This is not only a huge part of GFI's or ProVeg Incubator's work that probably absorbs a lot of money but it also was this kind of "hope" for animal activists like myself. Would it be reasonable to shift more resources towards alt proteins?

0JamesOz2moReposting this comment here as you said you were interested but won't get a notification from my other comment: Coming back to this as I just asked Bruce Friedrich (Director of GFI) a question about this in a presentation he was giving: He said that GFI doesn't agree with this report and thinks it is less credible than the techno-economic analysis [,also%20produced%20using%20renewable%20energy.] supported by GFI because: * This report didn't work with any companies under NDA whereas GFI's own analysis had 11 (I believe) * This report also didn't work with any national scientific agencies where GFI worked with that of Singapore. Generally he (and the scientists at GFI) seem much more optimistic that cultivated meat can reach price parity with the cheapest animal products and he said if they didn't think they would, they would focus less on cultivated meat. So that's a slightly more positive update in the cultivated direction for me and thought it might be interesting for people who are also concerned about this.
Introducing Animal Advocacy Africa

Congratulations! This is a very much needed research project. I've seen orgs scaling up to i.e. SA without any research, which resulted in not very successful programs. I also know very little about animal movement in African countries, so really looking forward to your reports.

3lynn10moThank you Ula!
Introducing Animal Ask

Huge congratulations and thank you for creating this org! I think it's very much needed, mostly because I am an animal activist for 20 years now and I think we could do even better when choosing which campaigns do we implement as a movement. I really hope that thanks to Animal Ask's help we will progress even faster for animals. The time is crucial, the amount of suffering and deaths unbearable. Thanks, Amy and George for taking this important challenge, and I really hope many organizations will use your talent and experience.

1Animal Ask10moThank you for your kind response Ula.
Introducing LEEP: Lead Exposure Elimination Project

Congratulation on your launch! Very impressed so far on how much progress you're making in a short amount of time. Good luck in Malawi!

4Jack1yThanks so much Ula!
2020 Top Charity Ideas - Charity Entrepreneurship

If you're interested in who will be starting some of these charities, we have now posted a video with our 2020 Incubation Program participants: We're very grateful because we received over 3,000 applications this year. In the video we ask participants why they decided to join the program.

Responding to COVID-19 in India

I am beyond impressed how fast this was put together. Great work!!!

Update On Six New Charities Incubated By Charity Entrepreneurship

I know I am biased because I work at CE, but I am extremely grateful for all the entrepreneurs and their work so far. I worked in a startup environment, so I know it's not easy to take this enormous responsibility that includes: providing high-quality research, managing contacts with business owners/governments/charities, responsible hiring, communications, operations, tons of traveling, and many many more. I am particularly excited about Fish Welfare Initiative since my biggest wish for fish is that they have their own "Open Wing Alliance". I hope many of you here on the EA forum will support these new charities and share your experience with them.

AMA: Rob Mather, founder and CEO of the Against Malaria Foundation

Do you think it will be possible to create high-impact, EA (complied to GiveWell standards) charities for animals? If yes - what would be the first step to achieve this? (Like what is missing in current animal advocacy that could brought it to this kind of cost-effective rigor?).

3RobM2yWhy not, assuming it can be agreed what is the definition of high impact for animal charities. For human-focused charities, measures include deaths averted and health outcomes improved and I don’t see why the same should not be achievable for animal charities. It is then a case of charities focused on these causes providing data and other information to allow independent assessment of their level of impact. I don’t feel I know enough to suggest what may be missing in current animal charities’ activities, including advocacy.
AMA: We are Jon and Kathryn. We work with The Life You Can Save. Ask us anything!

I have heard that TYLCS prepared a great event promoting the book in London (the guest list was small but amazing, the venue as well - so I heard). So I was wondering how much time was spent on preparing the event? How much money did you spend on it (stuff hours + venue/catering costs)? And what are the tips on putting a great guest list (like i.e. you want to funders, influencers, experienced EAs in the same room in the same time - that is super tough). Basically, I would like to know more on promoting via this kind of events. Do you think money wise it's worth it? How do you judge if it was a success or not? And how you did it?

9KathrynMecrow2yExcellent question, thank you! I am delighted to hear that people enjoyed the event. Our objectives were primarily to celebrate the progress since the initial launch of The Life You Can Save in 2009, further strengthen our relationships with our networks, and create new ones. As an organization we place a huge value on these relationships as much of what we do relies on them to be successful. On attendees, I think this is an example of a positive consequence of the diversity of the backgrounds of our team members that Jon mentioned above. Our organizing team contacted their networks which led us to a mix of attendees all of whom were excited to be there. Personally, I spent around 10-20 hours, primarily during EA Global in London, inviting people and asking my networks for advice. Including people already involved and leaders of the EA community meant that we had a group of really enthusiastic attendees who were willing to discuss what they find inspiring about effective giving and Effective Altruism and guide attendees who were perhaps earlier in their journeys. Our London-based recommended nonprofits also attended which allowed us to highlight the practical consequences of our work which is natural to lose sight of if you aren’t doing direct, in-country work. Since the event, we have had a significant amount of great feedback, including from our largest donor which is obviously really important for us. I also like to think that people will reach out to us in the future more willingly now they know more about our team and guiding values but I think it probably a little too soon to tell. We have some new leads coming out of the event, but expect it to take time to learn what the results might be. On costs, we spent £5,425 hard costs. There are other costs that you mention like staff time. An incredibly back-of the envelope calculation would be <£10,000. Overall, we are pleased with the event, learnt alot, and, of course, are very grateful to our networks for helping
Notes on hiring a copyeditor for CEA

This is super useful, we're just about to go through similar process (hiring full-time editor). Thanks for sharing!

3Aaron Gertler2yCould you share the job listing with me? I'd love to forward it on to some of the candidates!
Introducing Animal Advocacy Careers

This is such a nice welcoming! Great that 80K is supporting this project, it is very much needed in the animal space.

Effective Animal Advocacy Resources

Thanks Saulius, this is very helpful!

Introducing Fish Welfare Initiative

Congratulations on your launch! I am very glad that an organization focusing on such an important and large-scale problem was created within the framework of effective altruism. Thank you guys and good luck!

Should you have your own blog?

I agree with part of the comment above. I think moving to EA forum can be very beneficial but it will definitely make us more conscious about posting - so we'll be afraid to publish anything unpolished and rigorously double-checked. Maybe this is good, because we shall publish mostly high-quality stuff but for newbies like myself I think the bar (at least from what I heard) is so high that I'd probably start my own thing on side.

Interestingly, I don't believe re-posting stuff here as link-posts will work well. I can already see the differenc... (read more)

2018 ACE Recommendations

I wonder, what were the obstacles that didn't allow you to make cost-effectiveness analysis for ProVeg?: "For ProVeg in particular, we believe that our best estimate of their cost effectiveness is too speculative to feature in our review or include as a significant factor in our evaluation of their effectiveness." Is this supported by a promise that they will measure the cost-effectiveness in the future? And why it was possible to do the evaluation for other stand out charities and not for this particular one? Finally why do you think a cost-effectiveness analysis is not "a significant factor in our evaluation of their effectiveness".

2erikaalonso3yOur cost-effectiveness estimates are for the relatively short-term, direct impact of each charity. They are estimates of the average cost-effectiveness of a charity over the last year. If the majority of a charity’s programs (by budget) are indirect and/or long-term in their outcomes, we’ve found that our cost-effectiveness estimates for that charity are too uncertain to be useful. (We would not publish a cost-effectiveness estimate for only some of their programs, so as not to risk that estimate being taken as an estimate of the cost-effectiveness of the charities activities as a whole.) This was the case with ProVeg; most of their programs have relatively indirect and/or long-term impact. ProVeg is something of a unique case however, as their V-labelling program, which makes up a significant proportion of their expenditure, is mostly indirect in impact, but is also revenue generating. Speaking more generally, when making recommendation decisions to donors, we are most interested in marginal cost-effectiveness, or the cost-effectiveness of additional funding to a charity. All of our evaluation criteria are indicators of marginal cost-effectiveness. Our quantitative cost-effectiveness estimates are an important indicator of marginal cost-effectiveness, but they are not necessary or sufficient for estimating marginal cost-effectiveness. If we were to only recommend charities for which we could produce these estimates, we would be biasing ourselves in favor of more measurable short-term outcomes, at the cost of promising long-term or indirect change. As more research becomes available, we hope to have a better understanding of the long-term and less direct outcomes of different interventions. At that point, we will be able to produce more useful estimates for long-term and indirect change.