Will So

17 karmaJoined Jan 2023


Great post! This is a fascinating argument and makes me think quite a bit.


A couple of tests pitting EMH against mortality risk since nuclear war would have similar ramifications (with a similar amount of uncertainty given that it occurs!) 


  • What happened to bond prices during the Cuban missile crisis? How complete did the public think nuclear war would annihilate society? Was nuclear winter a thing?  You can make the argument that the public thought P(death) per year rose from ~2% to 20%-50%?  What would this theory suggest happen to bond prices? 
  •   What  about following the collapse of Soviet Union? After settling down, this arguably lowered the probability of nuclear war by 1%/year.  That gives us (1- pbinom(0, 30, .01)) = 26% reduction of existential risk over 30 years. Should still be measurable in long-term treasury rates.