EA Münster Predictions 2021

florian-az

These are our internal local group predictions, we just used a post to get quick elicit.com embeds. Please do not upvote.

COVID19

Immune Escape Variant of COVID19 discovered against which the current BioNTech vaccine is only <50% effective before 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/5wKEHg2SJ)

Germany

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-04-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-07-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-10-01

(metaculus approval pending)

Silvester 2021: Feiern mit bis zu 10 Leuten in einem geschlossenen Raum ohne Maske erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/Y7kf5Xm_C)

Silvester 2021: Feuerwerk erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/aHuedliO-)

Another Peak: Daily confirmed cases in Germany will raise above 10.000 after having been below 10.000 for a period of at least 3 weeks in 2021 https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases?country=~DEU

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/_MkmWO2iL)

Nachdem die Schulen in 2021 geöffnet werden, werden Sie in mind. 2 Bundesländern noch einmal wieder geschlossen

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/FdAS0Fco2)

EU

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-04-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-07-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-10-01

(metaculus approval pending)

Vaccination stats on ourworldindata.org

Politik

Scotland holds a new independence referendum before 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/I6qbwLMoH)

No other EU country announces plan to leave till 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/LE-oknnkk)

Xi still in power on 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/PkBaQDhEo)

Putin still in power on 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/NoHBmJdgO)

Boris Johnson still in Power on 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/xWKcIqD--)

Nordstream 2 wird bis 2022-01-31 in Betrieb genommen

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/vUMKBR0tu)

Bundestagswahlen

Laschet wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/FGTw_gLTA)

Söder wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/QRaHzhXBA)

Spahn wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/-jckCYAlg)

Grüne vor SPD im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/zioUkcaJu)

Grüne vor CDU/CSU im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/7OoOb_kUX)

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine neue große Koalition

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/Og5yfjLHw)

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Grün-Schwarze Koalition

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/10aQ5zskW)

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Jamaica Koalition

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/AQrX83Zhe)

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Minderheitenregierung

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/8YzixUICA)

Wahlbeteiligung Bundestagswahl 2021

https://elicit.org/questions/6a5G5OBHZ

Economy / Science / Misc

BIP Deutschland 2021 in Mrd. Euro

https://elicit.org/questions/09PQVLt4O

DAX Stand am 2022-01-31

https://elicit.org/questions/HeNg0IdZM

SpaceX BFR/Starship reaches Orbit before 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/tWlUVtOv3)

At least two more countries enact full or partial prohibitions on Bitcoin by 2022-01-31 -> more red on this map.

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/TSycteyC_)

Collision of at least two satellites or spaceships in earth orbit by 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/kARJwgmfC)

Kessler Syndrome event with at least 100 satellites affected by 2022-01-31

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/TAShWwu0E)

EA Münster

Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe trifft sich immernoch regelmäßig (min 2x im Januar 2022)

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/zaroX8Ot9)

Bei 80% der Treffen der EA Münster Lokalgruppe in 2021 waren mehr als 5 Personen anwesend

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/3ky_2L9JQ)

Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe hat mind. einen Workshoptag/-wochenende in 2021 organisiert

Elicit Prediction (elicit.org/binary/questions/biQIO3XXr)

markov_user3y2

"Bei 80% der Treffen der EA Münster Lokalgruppe in 2021 waren mehr als 5 Personen anwesend" - how will cancelled meetups (due to lack of attendees, if that ever happens) count into this? Not at all, or as <=5 attendees? (kind of reminds me of how the Deutsche Bahn decided to not count cancelled trains as delayed)

Also, coming from EA Bonn where our average attendance is ~4 people, I find the implications of this question impressive. :D

Achim3y1

Wie definieren wir große Koalition?

PPaul3y1

I'd like us to change the wording of the peak corona cases question. The 3 weeks are an unnecessary complication imo, because that could easily not happen, while I think the rest of the question will happen. Could we say something like higher cases than previous (Dec) peak? Open to other suggestions

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EA Münster Predictions 2021

2

COVID19

Germany

EU

Politik

Bundestagswahlen

Economy / Science / Misc

EA Münster

2

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