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These are our internal local group predictions, we just used a post to get quick elicit.com embeds. Please do not upvote.

COVID19

Immune Escape Variant of COVID19 discovered against which the current BioNTech vaccine is only <50% effective before 2022-01-31

1%
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fzeidler (20%),Achim (20%)
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PPaul (30%),Rudi (30%)
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Jan Wittenbecher (40%)
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99%
1%
Immune Escape Variant of COVID19 discovered against which the current BioNTech vaccine is only <50% effective before 2022-01-31
99%

 

Germany

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-04-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-07-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in Germany on 2021-10-01

(metaculus approval pending)

Silvester 2021: Feiern mit bis zu 10 Leuten in einem geschlossenen Raum ohne Maske erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte

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Jan Wittenbecher (25%)
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Rudi (60%)
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77%
78%
79%
fzeidler (70%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Achim (80%),PPaul (80%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Silvester 2021: Feiern mit bis zu 10 Leuten in einem geschlossenen Raum ohne Maske erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte
99%

Silvester 2021: Feuerwerk erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte

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66%
67%
68%
69%
Jan Wittenbecher (68%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Rudi (70%),Achim (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
fzeidler (85%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
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95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
PPaul (90%)
1%
Silvester 2021: Feuerwerk erlaubt in > 90% der deutschen Großstädte
99%

Another Peak: Daily confirmed cases in Germany will raise above 10.000 after having been below 10.000 for a period of at least 3 weeks in 2021 https://ourworldindata.org/covid-cases?country=~DEU

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fzeidler (40%)
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Rudi (50%)
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Jan Wittenbecher (75%)
80%
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85%
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PPaul (85%)
90%
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98%
99%
1%
Another Peak: Daily confirmed cases in Germany will raise above 10.000 after having been below 10.000 for a period of at least 3 weeks in 2021
99%

Nachdem die Schulen in 2021 geöffnet werden, werden Sie in mind. 2 Bundesländern noch einmal wieder geschlossen

1%
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Rudi (50%)
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fzeidler (60%)
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85%
86%
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89%
Jan Wittenbecher (80%)
90%
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93%
94%
95%
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98%
99%
1%
Nachdem die Schulen in 2021 geöffnet werden, werden Sie in mind. 2 Bundesländern noch einmal wieder geschlossen
99%

EU

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-04-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-07-01

(metaculus approval pending)

How many million people have received the first dose of any COVID19 vaccine in the EU on 2021-10-01

(metaculus approval pending)

Vaccination stats on ourworldindata.org

Politik

Scotland holds a new independence referendum before 2022-01-31

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Achim (5%)
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Rudi (20%),PPaul (20%)
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Jan Wittenbecher (60%)
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1%
Scotland holds a new independence referendum before 2022-01-31
99%

No other EU country announces plan to leave till 2022-01-31

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PPaul (80%),Jan Wittenbecher (85%)
90%
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99%
Rudi (90%)
1%
No other EU country announces plan to leave till 2022-01-31
99%

Xi still in power on 2022-01-31

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Rudi (75%)
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Achim (85%)
90%
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99%
Jan Wittenbecher (91%),PPaul (95%)
1%
Xi still in power on 2022-01-31
99%

Putin still in power on 2022-01-31

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Rudi (65%)
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Achim (75%)
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PPaul (85%)
90%
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Jan Wittenbecher (92%)
1%
Putin still in power on 2022-01-31
99%

Boris Johnson still in Power on 2022-01-31

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PPaul (60%),Jan Wittenbecher (69%)
70%
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Achim (70%)
80%
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89%
Rudi (85%)
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99%
1%
Boris Johnson still in Power on 2022-01-31
99%

Nordstream 2 wird bis 2022-01-31 in Betrieb genommen

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Rudi (20%)
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Achim (45%)
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Jan Wittenbecher (57%)
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1%
Nordstream 2 wird bis 2022-01-31 in Betrieb genommen
99%

Bundestagswahlen

Laschet wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021

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Jan Wittenbecher (25%)
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36%
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40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Rudi (45%),Achim (45%)
50%
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54%
55%
56%
57%
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59%
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61%
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64%
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66%
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69%
PPaul (65%)
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95%
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98%
99%
1%
Laschet wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021
99%

Söder wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021

1%
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5%
6%
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8%
9%
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11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Jan Wittenbecher (18%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
PPaul (25%)
30%
31%
32%
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34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Achim (40%),Rudi (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
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88%
89%
90%
91%
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93%
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95%
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97%
98%
99%
1%
Söder wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021
99%

Spahn wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021

1%
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6%
7%
8%
9%
Achim (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Rudi (10%),PPaul (10%),Jan Wittenbecher (16%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
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29%
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83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Spahn wird CDU/CSU Kanzlerkandidat 2021
99%

Grüne vor SPD im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021

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2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
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12%
13%
14%
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17%
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24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Jan Wittenbecher (32%),PPaul (35%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Rudi (65%),Achim (66%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Grüne vor SPD im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021
99%

Grüne vor CDU/CSU im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
PPaul (10%),Jan Wittenbecher (14%),Rudi (15%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Achim (20%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
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40%
41%
42%
43%
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66%
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72%
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74%
75%
76%
77%
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79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Grüne vor CDU/CSU im Bundestagswahlergebnis 2021
99%

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine neue große Koalition

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Achim (15%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Rudi (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
PPaul (50%),Jan Wittenbecher (58%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine neue große Koalition
99%

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Grün-Schwarze Koalition

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Jan Wittenbecher (18%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
PPaul (35%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Rudi (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Achim (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Grün-Schwarze Koalition
99%

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Jamaica Koalition

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Rudi (10%),PPaul (10%),Jan Wittenbecher (14%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Achim (30%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Jamaica Koalition
99%

Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Minderheitenregierung

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Achim (5%),Rudi (5%),PPaul (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Jan Wittenbecher (23%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Nach der Bundestagswahl 2021 gibt es eine Minderheitenregierung
99%

Wahlbeteiligung Bundestagswahl 2021

https://elicit.org/questions/6a5G5OBHZ

Economy / Science / Misc

BIP Deutschland 2021 in Mrd. Euro

https://elicit.org/questions/09PQVLt4O

DAX Stand am 2022-01-31

https://elicit.org/questions/HeNg0IdZM

SpaceX BFR/Starship reaches Orbit before 2022-01-31

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Achim (34%),PPaul (35%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Jan Wittenbecher (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Rudi (50%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
SpaceX BFR/Starship reaches Orbit before 2022-01-31
99%

At least two more countries enact full or partial prohibitions on Bitcoin by 2022-01-31 -> more red on this map.

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Achim (20%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
PPaul (30%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Jan Wittenbecher (65%),Rudi (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
At least two more countries enact full or partial prohibitions on Bitcoin by 2022-01-31
99%

Collision of at least two satellites or spaceships in earth orbit by 2022-01-31

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Achim (5%),PPaul (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
Rudi (10%),Jan Wittenbecher (19%)
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Collision of at least two satellites or spaceships in earth orbit by 2022-01-31
99%

Kessler Syndrome event with at least 100 satellites affected by 2022-01-31

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Achim (2%),Jan Wittenbecher (2%),Rudi (5%)
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Kessler Syndrome event with at least 100 satellites affected by 2022-01-31
99%

 

EA Münster

Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe trifft sich immernoch regelmäßig (min 2x im Januar 2022)

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Achim (66%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Rudi (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
Jan Wittenbecher (80%),PPaul (80%)
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
Charlotte (97%)
1%
Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe trifft sich immernoch regelmäßig (min 2x im Januar 2022)
99%

Bei 80% der Treffen der EA Münster Lokalgruppe in 2021 waren mehr als 5 Personen anwesend

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
Achim (20%)
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
PPaul (30%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
Rudi (40%)
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
Jan Wittenbecher (75%)
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Bei 80% der Treffen der EA Münster Lokalgruppe in 2021 waren mehr als 5 Personen anwesend
99%

Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe hat mind. einen Workshoptag/-wochenende in 2021 organisiert

1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
Achim (30%)
40%
41%
42%
43%
44%
45%
46%
47%
48%
49%
50%
51%
52%
53%
54%
55%
56%
57%
58%
59%
Jan Wittenbecher (55%)
60%
61%
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
69%
Rudi (60%),PPaul (65%)
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
79%
80%
81%
82%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
1%
Die EA Münster Lokalgruppe hat mind. einen Workshoptag/-wochenende in 2021 organisiert
99%

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markov_user2
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0

"Bei 80% der Treffen der EA Münster Lokalgruppe in 2021 waren mehr als 5 Personen anwesend" - how will cancelled meetups (due to lack of attendees, if that ever happens) count into this? Not at all, or as <=5 attendees? (kind of reminds me of how the Deutsche Bahn decided to not count cancelled trains as delayed)

Also, coming from EA Bonn where our average attendance is ~4 people, I find the implications of this question impressive. :D

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Achim1
0
0

Wie definieren wir große Koalition?

Reply
Achim1
0
0

Ab wann gilt eine Schule eigentlich als geschlossen?

Reply
PPaul1
0
0

I'd like us to change the wording of the peak corona cases question. The 3 weeks are an unnecessary complication imo, because that could easily not happen, while I think the rest of the question will happen. Could we say something like higher cases than previous (Dec) peak? Open to other suggestions

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