This is an Italian translation of Our final century?

“Quindi se ci arrendessimo a soccombere a una catastrofe esistenziale, deluderemmo i nostri antenati in molti modi. Falliremmo nel raggiungere ciò che loro sognavano, tradiremmo la loro fiducia in noi, i loro eredi; e non riusciremmo a ripagare ciò che gli dobbiamo per quel che hanno fatto per noi. Trascurare il rischio esistenziale potrebbe quindi significare non solo fare un torto alle persone del futuro, ma anche alle persone del passato.”

- Toby Ord

In questo capitolo ci concentreremo sui rischi esistenziali: rischi che minacciano di distruggere il potenziale a lungo termine dell’umanità.

Considereremo perché i rischi esistenziali potrebbero essere una priorità morale ed esploreremo le ragioni per le quali sono così trascurati dalla società. Discuteremo anche di uno dei maggiori rischi che potremmo ritrovarci ad affrontare: una pandemia creata dall’uomo, peggiore di quella da SARS-CoV-2.

Introdurremo anche i seguenti concetti:

  • Il concetto di importanza, trascuratezza, e trattabilità: I problemi più importanti in genere riguardano molte persone, hanno relativamente pochi investimenti dedicati, e possono essere significativamente migliorati con un impegno ridotto.
  • Pensare al margine: Se hai deciso di donare $1, dovresti donarlo all’intervento che può migliorare il mondo nel migliore dei modi considerando il rapporto di costo-efficacia. Ci sono molte ottime iniziative con un impatto medio per dollaro molto elevato che avranno un impatto marginale ridotto perché non possono ottenere la stessa efficacia su scala (mostrano “rendimenti marginali decrescenti”).
  • Considerazioni cruciali: Può risultare estremamente difficile capire se un’azione può aiutarti a raggiungere un tuo obiettivo o se al contrario recherebbe danno, soprattutto se stai cercando di influenzare sistemi sociali complessi o hai progetti a lungo termine. Questo spiega in parte perché può avere senso fare molte analisi sugli interventi che stai valutando.


 

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