Bayesian Investor, previous Overcoming Bias co-blogger, made this claim here. However, Eliezer Yudkowsky in Inadequate Equilibra seems to think beating the markets in such a way is impossible. I don't know who to believe. More information on Eliezer's critisisms and Bayesian Investor's replies to them can be found in the comments on the linked page.
Whether or not Bayesian Investor's strategy works is extremely important to know, because if it does work, effective altruists have the potential to substantially increase their wealth and thus effectiveness at altruism. To give an extremely rough sense of the importance, note that if 1,000 effective altruists each with $100,000 in investments earned an extra 3% returns, they would collectively make and extra $3,000,000 per year. Of course, this is ignoring the possibility of re-investing the money, which could further increase earnings. We could all follow Bayesian Investors advice just in case it turns out the be right, but the funds he recommends investing in have significant management fees, and paying them for no benefit would be quite costly in the long run.
I would very much like to know if Bayesian Investor's investment advice is worth following, and if it is, how we should go about spreading word of it to other effective altruists.
Edit: I've been researching the validity of Bayesian Investor's advice, and the advice seems to be reasonable.
Bayesian Investor's recommendations are actually pretty similar to the more advanced portfolio recommended in Ben Todd's post Common investing mistakes in the effective altruism community. The article recommends "[adding] tilts to the portfolio for value, momentum and low volatility (either through security selection or asset selection or adding a long-short component) and away from assets owned for noneconomic reasons" as an advanced move that should only be done if "you know what you’re doing."
Likewise, Bayesian Investor's recommended portfolio heavily involves low-volatility and fundamentally weighted (value-tilted) ETFs.
These articles reach fairly similar conclusions because academic research indicates that these strategies have historically outperformed market capitalization–weighted indexes (commonly known as "the market"). Various theories exist about why these strategies outperformed historically and whether they can be expected to outperform in the future.
Your observation that investing is important for EA because it can significantly increase funding for the EA community is why I'm working on Antigravity Investments, a social enterprise with the goal of improving investment returns in the EA community. Right now, we're picking the lowest hanging fruit by recommending that EA organizations move low-interest cash reserves into high-interest and low-risk savings options (see my EA forum article), which is essentially a guaranteed 2.5% improvement in returns every year at current interest rates. If we shift $15 million in cash, that's another $1 million in direct funding for high impact charities over three years.
Interestingly enough our most recommended option is both safer and higher interest than storing large amounts of cash in a checking account.
While there may be obvious things that EAs should be doing, unfortunately it is very difficult to invoke behavior change. My current approach to behavior change with regards to investing is to have an organization with specific expertise in investing help other EAs and EA organizations implement sensible recommendations. This approach seems to be more effective than writing articles online since it removes the prerequisites of having adequate expertise and time to learn about and implement sensible investing practices.
I wrote the high-yielding cash equivalents article because the recommendation seems particularly easy and obvious to implement. So far, although my article was well received, I haven't heard from any EA organization that has attempted to implement the recommendation based on reading the article, although organizations I've directly reached out to in the past have implemented the recommendation. I'm currently in the (very slow) process of doing more direct outreach to EA organizations to determine for them (and for us) whether our recommendation is worth implementing.
To answer your question about whether the advice is worth following, my personal opinion is that some of Bayesian Investor's recommendations are worth diversifying (tilting) into at a level that reflects each investor's confidence about how likely the anomaly will persist into the future. The low volatility factor in particular has achieved very high out-of-sample risk-adjusted and absolute returns, which is promising, but of course a prolonged period of underperformance could be on the horizon—hence the importance of diversifying.
The potential downside (and upside) of diversifying by adding some tilts and consistently sticking with them is limited, so I don’t see a major problem with “non-advanced investors” following the advice. Investors should be aware of things like rebalancing and capital gains tax; perhaps “intermediate investor” is a better term.