This is an experiment, I started out to research with AI and ask a review. In the end I wrote it myself, did half the research myself, got feedback from AI but decided not to use it eg: EA readers like this.... I did get some AI help with images.

The arguments against AI use have included we will all die, we will be controlled, lose our jobs, extend the wealth gap and become stupid, just to name a few. Naturally, when arguing such disruptive, radical or divergent change there are views that argue the exact opposite with equal vigor and rigor.  The answer is usually somewhere in between or in some cases the complete opposite. This is not humanity’s first rodeo when it comes to technological and societal disruption. History gives us the opportunity to examine past disruptive innovations that suggested dramatic societal and economic change and some examples where adverse predictions did come true.

The Printing Press

The invention of the printing press by Johannes Gutenberg was viewed by many religious and political authorities as dangerous because it enabled uncontrolled dissemination of ideas. Critics feared the spread of heresy and misinformation, social disorder and political unrest, a decline in scholarly standards and the loss of work for scribes and manuscript copyists. The reality is that the printing press is recognized as a major cultural leap forward for humanity. It increased literacy rates in the general public by making books affordable, knowledge grew not just amongst the clergy and aristocracy but also the public. This led to the creation of the Publishing Sector, an expansion of the Education Sector and Scientific Sector and the practice of critical review, not just of scientific thought but independent thought and even authority itself. The scribes did lose their jobs but so many more were created that employment expanded, just not in the religious sector. It also created religious conflict in the Reformation period and saw the introduction of misinformation and political propaganda as a means of controlling the narrative and outcomes. It should be noted that Gossip existed to control outcomes prior to the printing press.

The Industrial Revolution and Mechanisation

Mechanisation in the 18th and 19th centuries triggered major social panic. Skilled artisans feared machines would permanently destroy employment and reduce workers to poverty. Issues raised included permanent mass unemployment, collapse of traditional crafts, worsening inequality and dehumanization of labour (sound familiar). The outcome was quite different; there was an expansion of the middle class from the worker class, mass production significantly lowered prices and productivity increases that raised real incomes. New industries created new job categories as society became more mobile and economically dynamic as consumer culture expanded. Modern research on steam power adoption in 19th-century France found mechanised industries employed significantly more workers and paid higher wages than non-mechanised industries.

The negatives were more pronounced. Initially these included dangerous factory conditions, child labour, urban overcrowding and loss of work for farm workers. They were later overcome through public demand for safety and sanitation regulation and the advent of the union movement which forced labour laws and corporate regulation. Over time, industrial economies achieved far higher living standards and life expectancy than pre-industrial societies. Two areas still persist and are yet to be solved; industrial pollution and environmental impacts still affect us 100 years later despite efforts to limit this through legislation. Climate change is an existential risk brought about by the Industrial Revolution and it should be noted that environmental regulation lagged far behind industrial expansion, while economic incentives prioritised productivity over sustainability.

The Internet

In the mid 1990’s the launch of Amazon and eBay heralded the claim eCommerce would be revolutionising the retail sector and that “bricks and mortar” stores would no longer exist, removing retail workers from the market. Interest in technology investment increased as venture capitalism became popular. These venture capitalists were looking for quick gains, masquerading investment as growth which led to hype over reality media releases as a means of boosting perceived value and capturing increased funding. When returns did not materialize in March 2000 it sparked a selloff that wiped 77% off the value of the NASDAQ. Ten to 15years later eCommerce had established the “clicks and bricks” strategy which saw eCommerce flourish as complementary marketing industry and not as a replacement.

During the early adoption period of the internet, researchers and commentators warned that heavy internet usage would increase social isolation, reduce face-to-face interaction, and weaken community participation. A Stanford University study in 2000 described the internet as a potential “ultimate isolating technology,” while Carnegie Mellon researchers found associations between heavy internet use and loneliness and depression. The internet ultimately transformed communication, education, commerce, and access to information on a global scale. Surveys in the United States and other advanced economies later showed that most users believed the internet improved access to information and created substantial personal and economic benefits.

As with the Industrial Revolution, not all negatives were overcome or eliminated immediately because despite internet communication being easier to access the quality of the communication was initially reduced. Albert Mehrabian concluded that to like something text was only 7% effective, voice 38% and facial expression 55%. This is confirmed by many programs that seek to improve communication or training skills such as “Train the Trainer.” This was in part overcome through the introduction of Skype and later Zoom and other products to enable facial expressions to transmit messaging (good and bad). I personally found that trust and empathy was still difficult to achieve and face to face meetings at least once a year enabled me to build stronger, more focused teams. The issue of social isolation has been strengthened during the recent pandemic where forced isolation necessitated the use of videoconferencing to maintain relationships. Donika Bakiu and Fatima Zaberi wrote “ Face-to-face   communication   encourages  engagement   and   participation   in meetings and builds a culture   of trust at work.”  Is it any wonder that COVID has in part been responsible for a lack of trust in others, including society in general. They went on to describe how “face to face” communication was how we built “interpersonal skills and that “Interpersonal communication basically sheds light on the process of exchanging ideas, feelings and information between two or  more people, either through verbal or non-verbal forms.”

What History tells us.

• Few predictions came true, but some did.
• The cycle between introduction, impact, correction and normalcy is getting smaller.
• The introduction spread panic about the future and led to predatory behavior of those seeking to advance themselves at the cost of others but not everyone did this in either “The Industrial Revolution” during the 1700’s, 1800’s and 1900’s or the advent of the “Internet” where improvements in parental leave, work life balance and the 4 day working week has improved workers lives.
• Despite predictions to the contrary, each disruptive innovation has led to significant economic growth and an increase in the standard of living (over time).
• While each introduction led to periods of fear and unrest, that fear and unrest created societal reactions that led to the establishment of unionism to represent workers’ concerns during the Industrial Revolution, the Internet evolution and today.
• Legislation and regulation have been used extensively to represent society’s concerns. In 1833 legislation was brought about through increased public reaction to child slavery in textile mills. Upton Sinclair published “The Jungle” in 1906 to highlight the poor working conditions of meatpackers. While a bestseller, the reaction focused instead on the poor food safety where latrines were located near food preparation areas and workers with tuberculosis were handing meat. The book was translated into 19 languages and caused many countries to ban American meat products. Roosevelt ordered an inspection of meatpacking factories, and the subsequent report detailed a situation far worse that “The Jungle”. With a lack of Senate support Sinclair feared nothing would be done and leaked a copy of the report to The New York Times in late May 1906. “On June 30, 1906, Roosevelt signed the first comprehensive federal food safety laws in American history.”
• Where it is debatable that Legislation is effective can be seen in the Cambridge/Data Analytica case where up to 87 million Facebook profiles were harvested to assist with political campaigns in US, UK, Russia and other countries. This accelerated political support for the EU's General Data Protection Regulation, which took effect in May 2018. The FTC ultimately fined Facebook $5 billion in 2019, and the UK ICO levied a separate £500,000 fine. The digital advertising market reached roughly $480 billion in 2024, up from $227B with $7B in GDPR fines since 2018. This looks like a cost of doing business strategy (if you get caught). Having spent a number of years in the “regulatory” sector, I can say that having a law and enforcing it are two different things.

The Crystal Ball

 No one has a crystal ball, but humans have patterns of behavior which we repeat and why I use history for justification of my views.

Will we all die.

I agree with Elon Musk (about 10%) and based on history this is unlikely because as humans we always fear the unknown and that fear helps us imagine the worst-case scenario; the answer is NO. But we can’t rely on legislation, if we don’t make our voices heard, if we don’t exercise our vote, protest bad behavior and influence the outcome; we have only ourselves to blame.

Will we lose our Jobs.

There have been significant layoffs in the “software engineering” sector recently and suggestions administrative and support roles are next. As with the Printing Press and Industrial Revolution, scribes and farm workers did lose their jobs, but new industries were created in both examples that grew both jobs and economic benefits. The dot com era showed the mistakes of adopting an aggressive approach to adoption and the evidence we see the same mistakes and looming crash. “Many CEOs turn to layoffs to demonstrate quick AI returns; however, this disposition is misplaced,” said Helen Poitevin, Distinguished VP Analyst at Gartner. “Workforce reductions may create budget room, but they do not create return.” Oracle found this out recently when they sacked a significant number of senior software engineers, discarding their organisational knowledge in favor of short-term financial benefits gained from younger/cheaper junior engineers. Shareholders may initially be pleased with short-term share price performance but not about long-term debt exposure when profits drop.

Make us Stupid

The simple answer is “it depends”. Most people are not experienced communicators, so if AI helps them to communicate better, what’s the problem? The problem occurs when the conclusion or justification is false and not identified. If the output is not reviewed and certified, that’s a process problem, a HR problem, an IT problem and not an AI problem. A recent Gartner report stated “AI literacy programs often are too theoretical, ignore change management, overlook employee fears and fail to link learning to results.” The simple act of asking questions, whether of an AI or person is a fundamental aspect of the learning process whether personal or organisational. So, if you don’t ask questions like, why did you say…” or “this article does not support your statement…. “why did you… “, YES you will be stupid.

The answer as history records will depend on you

I personally don’t believe the answer to any of these issues will come through another “black box”. History tells us the problem is not a technology problem but a human one and can only be resolved by humans exercising their voice and influence.

• Contribute to forums, surveys, conversations and group chats to let your voice be heard!
• Go to 80,000 hours and seek training, advice or search for jobs.
• If your group has been laid off, hunt as a pack and proactively approach companies as an experienced group with success in doing X.
• Form or join a union to add power to your voice (has worked before)
• Exercise your political voice through signing petitions and voting for people who support your views and hold placards with protest groups outside the offices of those that don’t.
• Personally get experience with AI, which ones are best for certain tasks, read articles on “Medium”, “Substack” etc. to accelerate your learning.

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