Warning shot

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Sometimes the expression "warning shot" is used more generally to cover any event that increases awareness and concern about a certain type of existential risk, regardless of whether the event constitutes a global catastrophe.

I agree with that characterisation.

Fwiw I've also heard the term "warning sign" being used for non-catastrophes that increase such awareness and concern. In those contexts, "warning shot" has been defined more narrowly as catastrophes that increase such awareness and concern.

Thanks, I reworded the paragraph to reflect this. If you have any references discussing "warning signs", please let me know. (I recall ASB had written some stuff on the topic but it doesn't seem to have been published.)

Sorry, no. Yes, I also recall that. I also had some conversations with Eric Drexler where I think this terminology may have been used.