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Forecasting Newsletter: November 2021

The GPI link goes to their homepage. Is there a more specific URL for the claim that "The Global Priorities Institute is dipping its toes into forecasting"?

Jamie_Harris's Shortform

Note that Hans Moravec, an Austrian-born roboticist, came up with essentially the same idea back in the 1990s. Bostrom was very familiar with Moravec's work, so it's likely he encountered it prior to 2003, but then forgot it by the time he made his rediscovery.

Propose and vote on potential EA Wiki entries

Looks good. I've now created the entry and will add content/links later.

Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation

I wonder if more effort should be put into exploring ways to allow authors to receive better feedback than the karma system currently provides. For example, upon pressing the downvote button, users could be prompted to select from a list of reasons ("low quality", "irrelevant", "unkind", etc.) to be shared privately and anonymously with the author. It  can be very frustrating to see one's posts or comments get downvoted for no apparent reason, especially relative to a counterfactual where one receives information that not only dispels the uncertainty but potentially helps one write better content in the future.

(Concerning this post in particular, I have no idea why it was downvoted.)

December 2021 monthly meme post

I'd expect people to react very different to memes, so I'm very open to being persuaded that having memes on the Forum is in fact a good idea. But my independent impression is that memes to some degree trivialize our message, and that insofar as there's a place for them in the larger EA ecosystem, it is not on the Forum, which I see primarily as a place for conducting high-quality, high-fidelity intellectual discussion.

Announcing our 2021 charity recommendations

Their review for GFI gives the weaknesses as:

The first of the concerns listed in the quoted paragraph predated this review, so it can't be one of the considerations adduced for demoting GFI. From their 2020 review:

Work on cell-cultured products could have an enormous impact for farmed animals in the long term. If cell-cultured animal products become a competitive alternative, they could reach consumers with various food preferences and attitudes and reduce the consumption of animal products significantly. However, our impression is that it is relatively uncertain when cell-cultured animal products will be competitive because their success depends on progress in research, development, and legal conditions.

December 2021 monthly meme post

I'm not a big fan of memes, and would prefer if meme posts were confined to Personal Blog (or Reddit).

The Case for Reducing EA Jargon & How to Do It

I'd be very excited to see them integrated with the wiki.

This is an idea I've considered and I'd be interested in making it happen if I continue working on the Wiki. If anyone has suggestions, feel free to leave them below or contact me privately.

FTX EA Fellowships

FTX is providing housing, so housing costs aren't decision-relevant for potential applicants.

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