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I'm a researcher in psychology and philosophy.


Topic contributions

I don't think one can infer that without having the whole distribution across different countries. It may just be that small countries have greater variance. (Though I don't know what principle the author used for excluding certain countries.)

I agree with that.

Also, notice that the top countries are pretty small. That may be because random factors/shocks may be more likely to push the average up or down for small countries. Cf:

Kahneman begins the chapter with an example of data interpretation using cases of kidney cancer. The lowest rates of kidney cancer are in counties that are rural and vote Republican. All sorts of theories jump to mind based on that data.  However, a few paragraphs later Kahneman notes that the data also shows that the counties with the highest rates of kidney cancer are rural and vote Republican. The problem is that rural counties have small sample sizes and therefore are prone to extremes. 

@Lucius Caviola and I discuss such issues in Chapter 9 of our recent book. If I understand your argument correctly I think our suggested solution (splitting donations between a highly effective charity and the originally preferred "favourite" charity) amounts to what you call a barbell strategy.

Detail, but afaict there were at least five Irish participants.

I was going to make a point about a ‘lack of EA leadership’ turning up apart from Zach Robinson, but when I double-checked the event attendee list I think I was just wrong on this. Sure, a couple of big names didn’t turn up, and it may depend on what list of ‘EA leaders’ you’re using as a reference, but I want to admit I was directionally wrong here.

Fwiw I think there was such a tendency.

Thanks, this is great. You could consider publishing it as a regular post (either after or without further modification).

I think it's an important take since many in EA/AI risk circles have expected governments to be less involved:

It would be good to see more discussion on this crucial question.

The main thing you could consider adding is more detail; e.g. maybe step-by-step analyses of how governments might get involved. For instance, this is a good question that it would be good to learn more about:

"does it look more like much more regulations or international treaties with civil observers or more like almost-unprecedented nationalization of AI as an industry[?]"

But of course that's hard.

I don't find it hard to imagine how this would happen. I find Linch's claim interesting and would find an elaboration useful. I don't thereby imply that the claim is unlikely to be true.

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