https://pandemic.metaculus.com/ works for me. The link you have is for https://www.pandemic.metaculus.com/ though, which does not work. Maybe that's the problem?
Because Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security is part of Johns Hopkins University rather than its own US registered nonprofit, it may not be feasible to create a Facebook fundraiser for them.
I think the main potential benefits of GiveDirectly's COVID-19 response are (a) good PR for cash transfers, (b) an experiment to learn from, (c) bringing in more donors, and (d) persuading people to stay home rather than work. In terms of benefits for recipients though, it seems much less cost-effective than cash transfers to the extreme poor.
I think Open Philanthropy probably would not reduce it's grantmaking because of a recession. It seems Open Philanthropy is recommending around $200 million in grants per year. Forbes estimates that Dustin Moskovitz has a net worth of around $10 billion. So they're only spending down a mere 2% of Moskovitz's net worth each year. If Moskovitz's net worth declined to $5 billion that would still only be 4% of Moskovitz's net worth. In addition, better funding opportunities for Open Philanthropy may arise during a recession as other large funders pull back.
This seems to be based on one study of 21 pigs.
I'd expect some effect from that, but probably orders of magnitude smaller than the effect of increasing prices via taxation.
Assuming you're in the US: How about a Vanguard Brokerage account and a Google spreadsheet?
In a Vanguard Brokerage account, you can invest in something like Total World Stock Market. Then to donate from the account, you could do any of the following:
You should also tax loss harvest as needed.
And then you can keep track of your contributions, donations, and other details you want to keep track of in a Google spreadsheet.
Hi Brian. Thanks for the feedback and letting us know about your experience.
So, in our testing from the US this year, we've seen that donations made at :00 on the dot typically generate receipts with :02. It seems plausible that being in Manila is causing longer than expected delays. Though if you've only tried one $5 donation, perhaps you could try a few more of them?
It's also normal for Facebook to take much longer to return a "Thank you for your purchase ... " than it shows up in your receipt. I'll make a note to clarify this in our practice instructions.
When we say "try to donate within the first second," we've left that a bit vague, to avoid being too verbose. However, it seems that this language may be confusing. Do you think maybe a footnote would help? Or do you have other suggestions on how we could make it more clear what we mean?
Hi Mike. Do you think we should be more clear in our language? We're recommending donating within the first second because (a) we want to emphasize the importance of speed and (b) it is plausible the match will actually end in 1 second, even though a few seconds is probably more likely. But we also don't want people to misunderstand the difficulty of this and feel hopeless.
A $9,999 donation can be finalized in 1 click, so with some preparation and practice, it can be done in 1 second. It's also possible to finalize 2 x $9,999 donations in 1 second, though it requires skill and more practice.
A 1 second match end time is plausible, but it's not the most likely outcome. So probably 2 x $9,999 successful donations in 2 seconds would get matched. The max match amount per donor is $20,000 and this is just $2 short of that.