Finance Lead at CEA. Interested in cause prioritisation, interactions between cause areas, global catastrophic risk, and institutional changes that could help shape the long-term future. Also likes coffee and watching The Simpsons.


Progress Open Thread: October // Student Summit 2020

I've been learning to code with Python and I did my first tiny bit of machine learning - I figured out how to do a polynomial regression to look at global average sea surface temperatures!

Is there a positive impact company ranking for job searches?

What jobs are you thinking about? You could always post some of your thoughts in a forum post and people might be keen offer suggestions.

Paris-compliant offsets - a high leverage climate intervention?

Oops meant to add that - it's now in the first paragraph!

Factors other than ITN?

I personally don't find the ITN framework useful and agree with most of John Halstead's criticism of the framework here. Cost-effectiveness seems better if you want to make something numerical, within a particular cause area.

In fact, for me, I think both cost-effectiveness and ITN as intellectual frameworks fall down because they mask what I see as a fundamentally philosophical set of questions, if you're trying to do something like compare mental health with health interventions with animal welfare with more longtermist interventions.

If there's an underlying question: how does one prioritise causes? From my own perspective, I just gravitated towards a more longtermist cause prioritisation over time as I found the arguments quite convincing, but I agree that many other areas are extremely worthwhile.

Where the QALY's at in political science?

I think that the complexity of political systems mean that you can't work out a dinky formula for the best expected utility. You might enjoy this post on global development, and also this list which includes some important topics.

I'm currently particularly interested in authoritarianism and safeguarding democracy.

And also, if you're a young political scientist, with these skills, then you don't need to defer to others - what do you think they are yourself?

A portfolio approach towards effective environmentalism?

I believe Founders Pledge is working on a climate change fund with similar objectives to be launched later this year. Their current recommendations are here. There's also ClimateWorks.

Future deaths due to climate change

You might also find this paper by John Broome useful.

Is there a subfield of economics devoted to "fragility vs resilience"?

CSER does research on civilisational collapse, and one of their researchers, Luke Kemp, has an article on the topic here. I'd love to see more work in this space - collapse and recovery seems like an important cause area.

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