Just want to chime in and say
1) yes, we think that thinking about chains of onwards infections is important, and
2) we haven't done this in great detail, and
3) we would ***LOVE*** if someone wrote up an analysis of this. Issue for it: https://github.com/microcovid/microcovid/issues/17
Update: our tool is now public https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/MACKemu3CJw7hcJcN/a-tool-to-quantitatively-estimate-the-covid-risk-to-you-from
Yes David, we would love to build off that risk model and include it in our group house microcovid estimates project. Knowing how to value a "microcovid" is an important step in choosing how many microcovids per year you should select as your tolerance.
(combined with other comment)
Our house has a custom model & "points system" for group houses that we are working as fast as we can to release legibly (constrained by most of us having full-time jobs etc.).
(Basically: quantifying different activities in terms of microcovids i.e. literal 1-in-a-million chance of getting COVID)
We are already spending our spare time on informal custom consults. We really don't want to be doing this as an ongoing "job" in the long run, but we really DO want the information to be out there to help people.
We would LOVE LOVE LOVE to train people in what we know, so they can run consults!
Please reach out to me (ideally on messenger, or my username @mit.edu) if you would like to help us turn our V1 version into something scalably usable by EAs & group houses!
In the meantime, we have a stack of sources here that feed into our microcovid estimates, which you can consult: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1pkYTQA5hR-52pUbfGqjTFR1yieocOmEj1O0RnV2x6jI/edit#slide=id.g8b0e9b222b_0_179
Creating template "scenario plans" that could be used if someone gets sick, ot if infection rates rise above a certain amount in an area, etc.
Here is Ibasho's isolation protocol, with clear criteria about what counts as "sick" etc: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1OpWFFoUB4gULcpOZMZL4A1xdDfu-qvgSQDCFi8dXa6E/edit#
Writing weekly summaries of the outlook, progress on vaccines and treatments, etc. so that people are less likely to compulsively news search
We are already doing this and sharing on a messenger thread. Anywhere already existing that we could post them to be useful?
Campaign Zero is getting a *lot* of criticism, e.g. https://twitter.com/PowerDignity/status/1268735286646726656
They do "sound good" because they're paying attention to "data", but personally I wouldn't feel comfortable supporting them unless you had a very good reason to think that the criticism is not legitimate.
Hi Ryan - in terms of the Fellowship, I have a lot of thoughts about what we're trying to do, which feel better suited to "musing, with uncertainty" than "writing an internet comment", so let me know if you want to call/chat about it some time? But the short answer is I think the key pieces to keep in mind are to view the fellowship as 1) a community, not just individual scholarships handed out, and as such also 2) a multi-year project, built slowly.
We didn't look into these specifically. We'd welcome additional research to investigate what their programs are and whether there's room for more funding!
Thanks for this Peter. We've done some work on "6.) Are there places EAs should donate that focus on coronavirus response that are particularly promising to donate to, relative to existing charities EAs like?"