D0TheMath

857College Park, MD 20742, USAJoined Jan 2019

Bio

An undergrad at University of Maryland, College Park. Majoring in math.

After finishing The Sequences at the end of 9th grade, I started following the EA community, changing my career plans to AI alignment. If anyone would like to work with me on this, PM me!

I’m currently starting the EA group for the university of maryland, college park.

Also see my LessWrong profile

Sequences
1

Effective Altruism Forum Podcast

Comments
139

I agree with this, except when you tell me I was eliding the question (and, of course, when you tell me I was misattributing blame). I was giving a summary of my position, not an analysis which I think would be deep enough to convince all skeptics.

Mass Gell-Mann amnesia effect because, say, I may look at others talking about my work or work I know closely, and say "wow! That's wrong", but look at others talking about work I don't know closely and say "wow! That implies DOOM!" (like dreadfully wrong corruptions of the orthogonality thesis), and so decide to work on work that seems relevant to that DOOM?

Do you disagree, assuming my writeup provides little information or context to you?

Basically, there are simple arguments around 'they are an AGI capabilities organization, so obviously they're bad', and more complicated arguments around 'but they say they want to do alignment work', and then even more complicated arguments on those arguments going 'well, actually it doesn't seem like their alignment work is all that good actually, and their capabilities work is pushing capabilities, and still makes it difficult for AGI companies to coordinate to not build AGI, so in fact the simple arguments were correct'. Getting more into depth would require a writeup of my current picture of alignment, which I am writing, but which is difficult to convey via a quick comment.

I could list my current theories about how these problems are interrelated, but I fear such a listing would anchor me to the wrong one, and too many claims in a statement produces more discussion around minor sub-claims than major points (an example of a shallow criticism of EA discussion norms).

The decisions which caused the FTX catastrophe, the fact that EA is counterfactually responsible for the three primary AGI labs, Anthropic being entirely run by EAs yet still doing net negative work, and the funding of mostly capabilities oriented ML work with vague alignment justifications (and potentially similar dynamics in biotech which are more speculative for me right now), with the creation of GPT and[1] RLHF as particular examples of this.


  1. I recently found out that GPT was not in fact developed for alignment work. I had gotten confused with some rhetoric used by OpenAI and employees during the earlier days which turned out to be entirely independent from modern alignment considerations. ↩︎

EAs should read more deep critiques of EA, especially external ones

  • For instance this blog and this forthcoming book

The blog post and book linked do not seem likely to me to discuss "deep" critiques of EA. In particular, I don't think the problem with the most harmful parts of EA are caused by racism or sexism or insufficient wokeism.

In general, I don't think many EAs, especially very new EAs with little context or knowledge about the community, are capable of recognizing "deep" from "shallow" criticisms, I also expect them to be overly optimistic about the shallow criticisms they preach, and to confuse "deep & unpopular" with 'speculative & wrong'.

Eh, I don’t think this is a priors game. Quintin has lots of information, I have lots of information, so if we were both acting optimally according to differing priors, our opinions likely would have converged.

In general I’m skeptical of arguments of disagreement which reduce things to differing priors. It’s just not physically or predictively correct, and it feels nice because now you no longer have an epistemological duty to go and see why relevant people have differing opinions.

Yeah, he’s working on it, but its not his no. 1 priority. He developed shard theory.

Totally agree with everything in here!

I also like the framing: Status-focused thinking was likely very highly selected for in the ancestral environment, and so when your brain comes up with status-focused justifications for various plans, you should be pretty skeptical about whether it is actually focusing on status as an instrumental goal toward your intrinsic goals, or as an intrinsic goal in itself. Similar to how you would be skeptical of your brain for coming up with justifications in favor of why its actually a really good idea to hire that really sexy girl/guy interviewing for a position who analyzed objectively is a doofus.

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