This is a big question, of which there are many benchmarks and prediction markets to hint at a potential answer. Here are two potential prediction markets worth looking at:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-first-agi-strong/
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/
He had a great 40 minute interview which probably foreshadowed this announcement https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qpoRO378qRY&pp=ygUaRHIuIEhpbnRvbiBnb2RmYXRoZXIgb2YgYWk%3D
I personally find this very valuable - thanks for the work here. As text to voice gets better, I expect to it increasingly valuable