All of ezrah's Comments + Replies

Very interesting!

Thanks for the writeup

I'd be very interested in seeing a continuation in regards to outcomes (maybe career changes could be a proxy for impact?)

Also, curious how you would think about the added value of a career call or participation in a program? Given that a person made a career change, obviously the career call with 80k isn't 100% responsible for the change, but probably not 0% either (if the call was successful). 

2
Vasco Grilo
11d
Thanks for the comment, Ezrah! Yes, I think career changes and additional effective donations would be better proxies for impact than outputs like quality-adjusted attendances and calls. Relatedly: ---------------------------------------- AAC's studies had a control group, so they provide evidence about the counterfactual impact of their one-to-one advising calls and online course. 80,000 Hours' has a metric called discounted impact-adjusted peak years (DIPYs) which accounts for which fraction of the career change was caused by them.

Please advertise applications at least 4 weeks before closing! (more for fellowships!)

I've seen a lot of cool job postings, fellowships, or other opportunities that post that applications are open the forum or on 80k ~10 days before closing. 

Because many EA roles or opportunities often get cross-posted to other platforms or newsletters, and there's a built in lag-time between the original post and the secondary platform, this is especially relevant to EA. For fellowships or similar training programs, where so much work has gone into planning and desig... (read more)

2
OllieBase
11d
As someone guilty of this—sorry! This is a good reminder.
1
ElliotT
11d
+1 as the person who writes the EA Australia newsletter

Rashi on "categories of labor" - although some learners of the EA Talmud have been known to  include commenting on forums and debating philosophical turns of phrase within their definition of "labor", the Mishna is making a chiddush and excluding types of "labor" that cannot be of assistance when building a large tent. Nafka mina (emerges from it) the understanding that how-to youtube videos would be categorized as labor, by a rabbinical - not biblical - decree, but longwinded comments on obscure posts are not.

Great question! I realize that I really wasn't clear, and that it probably does exist more in EA than my instinctive impression (also - great links, I hadn't been familiar with all of them).

What I meant by leverage was more along the lines of "the value of insider's perspective and the ability to leverage individual networks and skill sets". In these cases, Nick was able to identify potential cost-effective ways to save lives because of both his training and location, and SACH is able to similarly have a cost-effective program because of their close connec... (read more)

From what I understand, the per-patient treatments costs are both quite low and are given pro-bono, so given how GiveWell understands leverage (which @Mo Putera pointed out in the response below), they should be strongly discounted from the costs. The question of how to incorporate the infrastructure costs, ie - the hospital, staff training, etc - that enable the program to operate, is quite interesting, and I honestly don't have a great idea how that fits into the model.

Loved this post. Like sawyer wrote - it made me emotional and made me think, and feels like a great example of what EA should be.

There actually is a non-profit I'm aware of (no affiliation) that hits a lot of the criteria mentioned in the comments - https://saveachildsheart.org/, they treat life-threatening heart disease in developing countries, often by paying for transportation to Israel where the children receive pro-bono treatment from a hospital the nonprofit has a partnership with. From a (very) quick look at their financial statements and annual rep... (read more)

6
Jason
2mo
Could you say a bit more about the ~$6,300 figure? I have 547 lives saved from the annual report (p. 5) and about $9.5MM USD in expenses from the financial statements. Admittedly, most of this is related to the establishment of a "Children's Hospital at Wolfson" -- but it's not clear to me that these costs should be excluded. I suppose that the organization is doing its current work without said hospital existing yet, but the presence and magnitude of that expenditure makes me wonder -- at a minimum -- whether they have room for more funding at ~$6,300. By rough analogy, it wouldn't be appropriate for an organization to fundraise separately for bednets and for distribution costs, and quote a cost-effectiveness figure to distribution-cost donors of (distribution costs / total impact).
1
gewind
2mo
Thanks for this source, ezrah! These 6,3k seem to possibly be a bit misleading to me. Without taking a closer look, it sounds like the costs of the treatment (currently covered by the hospital's CSR funds or donations?) are hidden from the total costs as someone had the great idea of splitting the true costs into two different donation opportunities, both of which on each side suggest that "if you give to this opportunity, the other side is covered". But given the high-quality medical facility/treatment the children receive, the true cost of donations consumed per patient are probably much higher. Am I mistaken here?
1
Mo Putera
2mo
I'd be curious as to what you mean here, since my impression was always that EA discourse heavily emphasises leverage – e.g. in the SPC framework for cause prioritisation, in career advice by 80,000 Hours and Probably Good, in GiveWell's reasoning (for instance here is how GW's spreadsheet adjusts for leverage in evaluating AMF). 

To everyone who replied with messages of support and wishes for a better world - thank you, I'm really glad that the EA community has people such as you, especially in such difficult times.

From what I've seen, peace building initiatives are more a matter of taste than proven effectiveness.

And I would wait until after the war to understand which orgs are able to effectively deliver aid to Gazans who have been affected, things will be clearer then. Now everything is complicated by the political / military situation.

Hi Ofer

Thanks for responding.

I agree with all of the facts you present in your comment! and I don't at all think that the Israeli government is trustworthy or is trying to maximise general wellbeing, and I think that they, like most sovereign countries, value the lives of their citizens and soldiers significantly more than civilians on the other side. I don't know if that's good for the world, but it is how governments operate. I do think that there is effort being made to minimise civilian causalities, but I have no idea how much.

The point I was trying to... (read more)

Hi!

From what I understand from conversations with SmokeFree Israel's staff (which admittedly might be biased) is that they were the only body pushing the legislation forward, and they had to work AGAINST the existing legislation. SFI wokred to fix problematic loopholes in the update to the tobacco taxation policy that had recently been passed, and petitioned to external legal bodies to help force the government to put the policy back on the agenda. They also provided the data and expert opinions that were pivotal in the discussions within the legislature o... (read more)

To emphasize Cornelis's point:

I've noticed that most of the tension that a "cause-first" model has is that it's "cause" in the singular, and not "causes" (ie - people who join EA because of GHWB and Animal Welfare but then discover that at EAG everyone is only talking about AI). Marcus claims that EA's success is based on cause-first, and brings examples:

"The EA community was at the forefront of pushing AI safety to the mainstream. It has started several new charities. It's responsible for a lot of wins for animals. It's responsible for saving hundreds of ... (read more)

5
Cornelis Dirk Haupt
11mo
I'd like to note that it is totally possible for someone to sincerely be talking about "cause-first EA" and simultaneously believe longtermism and AI safety should be the cause EA should prioritize. As a community organizer I've lost track of how many times people I've introduced to EA initially get excited, but then disappointed that all we seem to talk about are effective charities and animals instead of... mental health or political action or climate change or world war 3 or <insert favourite cause here>. And when this happens I try to take a member-first approach and ensure they understand what led to these priorities so that the new member can be armed to either change their own mind or argue with us or apply EA principles in their own work regardless of where it makes sense to do so. A member-first approach wouldn't ensure we have diversity of causes. We could in theory have a very members-first movement that only prioritizes AI Alignment. This is totally possible. The difference is that a members-first AI alignment focused movement would focus on ensuring its members properly understand cause agnostic EA principles - something they can derive value from regardless of their ability to contribute to AI Alignment - and based on that understand why AI Alignment just happens to be the thing the community mostly talks about at this point in time. Our current cause-first approach is less concerned with teaching EA principles that are cause agnostic and more concerned with just getting skilled people of any kind, whether they care about EA principles or not, to work on AI Alignment or other important things. Teaching EA principles being mostly instrumental to said end goal. I believe this is more the cause of the tension you describe in the "cause-first" model. It has less to do with only one cause being focused on. It has more to do with the fact that humans are tribalistic. If you're not going to put effort into making sure someone new is part of the tribe (i

Great post, I'm glad this is up for debate. 

I'm mostly worried about situations where the majority of the board is made up of different representatives of a single funder / donor. For the example of Claire - I think it's fine that she represents OP interests to CEA. I'm more worried when the other board members and executives are also very strongly OP affiliated - then it seems like the nonprofits ability to carry out it's mission is harmed. If a nonprofit has an appearance of independence but in practice is managed / owned by a different organization... (read more)

Excellent post, and great work on the research report!

From a narrative perspective I think the analogy between Clean Water and Clean Air is great. However, I'm wondering if from a R&D and implementation perspective a more fitting analogy would be clean cooking fuel, heating or solar power (which you do mention). Clean water systems need large investment in infrastructure and government implementation upfront, as much as they need more technological advancement, since Clean Water is a public good. Indoor Clean Air, or at least the solutions you describe... (read more)

Love this idea as a new format for university groups! Let's not just focus broadly on undergrads, but get people who already have specific skills and expertise to think deeply about their chosen field.

7
NoamShwartz
1y
Hopefully soon!

Wishing you best of luck Markus!

As one of the people who Markus worked with during the pilot phase, I can very much attest to the value he brings to an organization, and would be happy to speak with any potential funders about my experience working with Altruistic Agency.

2
Markus Amalthea Magnuson
1y
Thank you, Ezra, that is very kind of you.

Hi!

Great post, thanks for writing. I also found your previous post on hiring also very helpful. I'd be very interested in a syllabus of key concepts and materials. Even something low-effort (ie - a google doc with a list of terms/concepts to google and a list of general materials) would be useful. Please let me know if there's anything I could do to make this move forward. Thanks!

Great points, very much liked your directness.